Buffalo Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.009 to 68.2%
3-2-0   .600

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*First Seed100.0*Average seed
Bengals 20 Bills 16 -7.1
-6.0
-0.7
Buccaneers 14 Patriots 19 -2.0
-0.1
-0.2
Browns 14 NY Jets 17 -0.8
-0.1
Texans 34 Chiefs 42 +0.4
-1.9
Steelers 9 Jaguars 30 -0.4
+0.9
Raiders 17 Ravens 30 +0.2
Dolphins 16 Titans 10 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*First Seed100.0*Average seed
NY Jets vs Patriots+0.7-1.0-0.8
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Texans vs Browns-0.4*+0.6+1.3
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs NY Giants-0.3*-0.6+1.2
-0.1*-0.1+0.4
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Falcons vs Dolphins+0.4*-0.1-1.1
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Bears-0.3*+0.5+0.8
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Chiefs vs Steelers+0.3*+0.0-0.7
-0.6*+0.2+1.4
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Raiders vs LA Chargers-0.2*+0.4+0.4
Titans vs Colts-0.2*-0.2+0.3
Jaguars vs LA Rams-0.1*+0.1+0.3
-0.4*-0.0+0.7
-0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bills finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inFirstChance will finish regular season at seedFirst
TWW-L-TplayoffsSeed12345678910111213141516PickCount
1411-0-0In98.6%991No9,082
13.510-0-1In90.090100No772
1310-1-0In77.97821100No76,001
9-0-2In76.77723No30
12.59-1-1In54.65540500No6,067
8-0-3InYes100No2
129-2-0In39.6404811010No287,256
8-1-2In38.13849120No210
11.58-2-1In18.2185126220No20,325
7-1-3In20.02080No5
118-3-0100.0%8.9941377510No634,942
7-2-2In8.484138750No631
10.57-3-199.81.622346151040No39,426
6-2-3In11.111334411No9
107-4-097.80.50103628149200No908,063
6-3-298.40.719362915910No1,081
9.56-4-189.70.002223212219100No48,880
5-3-394.7No263711215No19
96-5-068.30.00193172020102000No883,881
5-4-267.7No0931721201020No1,096
8.55-5-133.8No02172132825112000No40,318
4-4-335.3No241235246No17
85-6-015.0No001004142625155100No600,709
4-5-213.5No08141526261361No810
7.54-6-12.6No020313283018510No22,526
3-5-3OutNo85415158No13
74-7-00.9No0100311243021810No283,018
3-6-20.3No01314233122510No342
6.53-7-10.0No0001824352371No8,397
2-6-3OutNo204040No5
63-8-00.0No0002923342470No91,639
2-7-2OutNo242536294No83
5.52-8-1OutNo183139191No2,073
52-9-0OutNo00314384060.0%19,048
1-8-2OutNo625636No16
4.51-9-1OutNo32650210.7276
41-10-0OutNo011158313.22,250
0-9-2OutNo100No1
3.50-10-1OutNo673323.821
30-11-0OutNo1376227.8436
Total:68.2%6.3%61318176877543221000.0%3,989,776
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/5100.0*Lottery seed
Bengals 20 Bills 16 +1.4
Buccaneers 14 Patriots 19 +0.3
Browns 14 NY Jets 17 +0.1
Dolphins 16 Titans 10 -0.0
Raiders 17 Ravens 30 +0.0
Texans 34 Chiefs 42 -0.0
LA Rams 10 Seahawks 16 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/12100.0*Lottery seed
NY Jets vs Patriots-0.1+0.1+0.1
Chiefs vs Steelers-0.0+0.0+0.1
Texans vs Browns+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Bears+0.0-0.1-0.1
Raiders vs LA Chargers+0.0-0.1-0.0
Jaguars vs LA Rams+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Titans vs Colts+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Falcons vs Dolphins-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Broncos vs NY Giants+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

The Official NFL Page

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1411-0-09441
13.510-0-1837100
1310-1-061172101000
9-0-2631323
12.59-1-13618382500
8-0-3100
129-2-0172339911000100
8-1-215234181200
11.58-2-1414341825120200
7-1-3206020
118-3-018162527107051100
7-2-217172428117410
10.57-3-102320242214173300
6-2-311334411
107-4-000110102619968722000
6-3-211810261910688210
9.56-4-102121141821111108200
5-3-352121161111115
96-5-000109823076141112621000
5-4-20087241671414116200
8.55-5-1021162013412191893100
4-4-3618122912186
85-6-00001000041411182117931000
4-5-20081404131922169210
7.54-6-100200027162423167200
3-5-3231531238
74-7-0001000014112025211241000
3-6-2024122027201031
6.53-7-1000016152627166100
2-6-3204040
63-8-0000151425271882000
2-7-221720312252
5.52-8-101313272821610
52-9-001516282815410
1-8-21950256
4.51-9-101818332981
41-10-003153231163
0-9-2100
3.50-10-1510332924
30-11-007234228
Total:336781089243433334322221111000000