Chicago Playoff Chances

Lost to Vikings 17-20, playoff odds down 1.1 to 0.4%
1-4-0   .200

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*First Pick100.0*Average seed
Bears 17 Vikings 20 -1.0
+2.2
-0.6
Lions 24 Panthers 27 +0.1
+0.2
Buccaneers 14 Patriots 19 +0.1
+0.2
Cowboys 31 Packers 35 -0.1
-0.4
Browns 14 NY Jets 17 -0.7
Steelers 9 Jaguars 30 +0.3
NY Giants 22 LA Chargers 27 -0.2
+0.1
Raiders 17 Ravens 30 -0.2
Colts 26 49ers 23 +0.1
+0.1
Eagles 34 Cardinals 7 -0.1
+0.0
Dolphins 16 Titans 10 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*First Pick100.0*Average seed
Ravens vs Bears-0.2*+0.1+0.4
+2.3*+0.4-5.3
-0.2+0.3+0.5
Saints vs Lions+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Falcons vs Dolphins-0.1*-0.3+0.3
Cardinals vs Buccaneers+0.0*+0.1-0.0
+0.4*+0.0-0.3
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Panthers vs Eagles-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Redskins vs 49ers-0.3+1.0+0.6
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Texans vs Browns-0.5+1.6+1.6
Broncos vs NY Giants-0.5+1.0+1.7
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Chiefs vs Steelers+0.1*+0.1-0.3
Raiders vs LA Chargers-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Titans vs Colts-0.1*-0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bears finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inFirstChance will finish regular season at seedFirst
TWW-L-TplayoffsSeed12345678910111213141516PickCount
1211-0-0In61.6%6226319No320
1110-1-0In13.01333216234No362
10.59-1-1InNo153113338No52
109-2-088.5%0.40616152526920No4,236
8-1-250.0No5050No2
9.58-2-176.2No191220351851No579
98-3-027.8No0273162526165100No27,543
7-2-219.2No4151931238No26
8.57-3-18.0No02162033271020No3,138
6-2-3OutNo100No1
87-4-01.2No01002102331228100No118,197
6-3-20.6No121422302461No155
7.56-4-10.1No00031432321630No11,533
5-3-3OutNo255025No8
76-5-00.0No000029253523500No342,999
5-4-2OutNo1724402261No497
6.55-5-1OutNo0031636331110No28,374
4-4-3OutNo72150714No14
65-6-0OutNo000317393380No688,617
4-5-2OutNo02134134100No904
5.54-6-1OutNo00193343141No45,768
3-5-3OutNo306010No10
54-7-0OutNo00114443460.0%956,787
3-6-2OutNo011440368No1,161
4.53-7-1OutNo0063645121.149,974
2-6-3OutNo18353512No17
43-8-0OutNo0011949302.7898,584
2-7-2OutNo11751312.51,005
3.52-8-1OutNo09484318.634,633
1-7-3OutNo7504328.614
32-9-0OutNo03326526.0541,896
1-8-2OutNo1297030.2437
2.51-9-1OutNo1227761.513,526
0-8-3OutNo100Yes2
21-10-0OutNo0109069.1187,439
0-9-2OutNo138767.583
1.50-10-1OutNo59592.22,265
10-11-0OutNo19994.828,618
Total:0.4%0.0%000000011247132227238.5%3,989,776
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/5100.0*Lottery seed
Bears 17 Vikings 20 +1.2
Cowboys 31 Packers 35 -0.1
Steelers 9 Jaguars 30 +0.1
Buccaneers 14 Patriots 19 +0.1
Eagles 34 Cardinals 7 -0.1
Lions 24 Panthers 27 +0.1
Colts 26 49ers 23 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/12100.0*Lottery seed
Ravens vs Bears+0.7+0.0-1.7
Falcons vs Dolphins-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Cardinals vs Buccaneers+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Broncos vs NY Giants-0.0+0.0+0.1
Titans vs Colts-0.0+0.1+0.0
Chiefs vs Steelers+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Redskins vs 49ers-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

The Official NFL Page

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1211-0-0194321530181
1110-1-0137261566141040
10.59-1-141223812217158
109-2-00063131066191971020
8-1-25050
9.58-2-111875416251017610
98-3-000216032142527144100
7-2-24883527812
8.57-3-1001105721292110410
6-2-3100
87-4-000100015132123191141000
6-3-212313192625651
7.56-4-1000026162425177200
5-3-3131338131313
76-5-000000015111823201362000
5-4-21231319231813620
6.55-5-10015142426198200
4-4-314502177
65-6-00001513222519103100
4-5-2026112126209410
5.54-6-1000312253020810
3-5-3201020202010
54-7-00001515272817510
3-6-2161328281761
4.53-7-1001721342791
2-6-3662435246
43-8-00003143034163
2-7-202113134182
3.52-8-10019314119
1-7-314362129
32-9-00005244426
1-8-204244130
2.51-9-10053362
0-8-3100
21-10-00032869
0-9-213167
1.50-10-10892
10-11-00595
Total:000000000000001111122345679111213129