How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/18100.0*Chance wins regular season title100.0*Average seed
Appalachian_State 42 Louisiana-Monroe 17 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 11/25100.0*Chance wins regular season title100.0*Average seed
Texas_State vs Troy-28.9-28.8YesYes
-0.4-0.4+0.0+0.0
New_Mexico_State vs Appalachian_State+1.8+1.8-0.4-0.4
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Arkansas_State+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1
I_daho vs South_Alabama+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Troy finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-LChance wins regular season title1234567891011121314Count
6-7Yes1009,813*
50-097.2%9721169,107,750
0-181.4811726,542
0-211.01149403,271
Total:97.2%9721169,127,376

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Win Regular Season Title