How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/18100.0*Chance wins regular season title100.0*Average seed
SMU 27 USF 35 -10.0
-0.1
UCF 20 Tulsa 35 +3.9
+0.2
East_Carolina 31 Navy 66 -3.3
-0.2
Tulane 0 Temple 31 -1.2
-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 11/25100.0*Chance wins regular season title100.0*Average seed
USF vs UCFNoNo+26.8+26.9
-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2
Memphis vs Houston-11.8-11.8+13.5+13.4
-0.5-0.5+0.6+0.6
SMU vs Navy+3.2+3.2-1.7-1.6
+0.4+0.4-0.2-0.2
Temple vs East_Carolina-0.3-0.3+3.4+3.4
-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2
Tulsa vs Cincinnati+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-LChance wins regular season title1234567891011121314Count
61-025.1%2562136,542
50-012.312413512169,114,292
0-10.502255226,542
Total:12.3%12413512169,127,376
Games Above .500
Chance Will Win Regular Season Title