gatorbait Playoff Chances 2003 50/50

Lost to Young Money 168.12-311.98, playoff odds down 4.9 to 4.6%

2 points 1-7-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 10/29	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Title	100.0*	Last Place	100.0*	Average seed
Young Money 311.98 gatorbait 168.12	-5.6		-0.8		+11.6		-0.4
BlitzBurgh 266.74 Phil 251.92	+0.8		+0.1		-1.8		+0.1
Midway Monsters 327.2 saintspelicans23 314.26	+0.6		+0.1		-0.4		+0.0
Desert Storm 272.32 Big T 319.1	+0.2				+2.1
CP84 297.32 Mile High Club 267.22	-0.1				+3.1		-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Title	100.0*	Last Place	100.0*	Average seed
Big T vs gatorbait	-3.6-1.9+3.6		-0.5-0.2+0.5		+14.2+3.8-14.2		-0.4-0.1+0.4
Young Money vs Desert Storm	+0.6+0.1-0.6		+0.1*+0.0-0.1		-1.9+0.1+1.9		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Mile High Club vs saintspelicans23	+0.2-0.6-0.2		+0.0-0.1-0.0		-0.1+1.0+0.1
CP84 vs Phil	-0.1-0.2+0.1				-0.7+3.1+0.7		+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the gatorbait finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Win		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Last
TP		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Title		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Place		Count

14		6	-	0	-	0	95.0	%	12.8	%	0	0	2	26	44	23	5	0	0		No		117,536,570
13		5	-	0	-	1	72.5		9.2				0	3	25	45	24	4	0		No		250,202
12		5	-	1	-	0	31.4		3.9				0	0	6	25	37	25	7	1	0.5	%	694,171,480
		4	-	0	-	2	29.5		5.2						7	23	43	23	4		No		210
11		4	-	1	-	1	3.4		0.4					0	0	3	22	44	27	4	4.0		1,248,504
10		4	-	2	-	0	0.5		0.1					0	0	1	6	27	44	22	22.2		1,735,545,470
		3	-	1	-	2	0.6		0.3							1	5	25	47	22	22.3		909
9		3	-	2	-	1	0.0		0.0							0	0	6	40	54	54.1		2,498,690
		2	-	1	-	3	Out		No											100	Yes		3
8		3	-	3	-	0	0.0		0.0							0	0	2	23	76	75.8		2,314,088,486
		2	-	2	-	2	Out		No									1	19	80	79.9		1,287
7		2	-	3	-	1	Out		No									0	5	95	94.8		2,498,203
		1	-	2	-	3	Out		No											100	Yes		1
6		2	-	4	-	0	Out		No									0	2	98	98.0		1,735,540,987
		1	-	3	-	2	Out		No										1	99	99.1		960
2	-5						Out		No											100	Yes		813,276,118	*

Total:							4.6	%	0.6	%	0	0	0	0	1	3	5	9	18	63	62.8	%	7,416,658,080

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 10/29	100.0*	Lottery seed
Young Money 311.98 gatorbait 168.12	+0.5
BlitzBurgh 266.74 Phil 251.92	-0.1
CP84 297.32 Mile High Club 267.22	+0.1
Midway Monsters 327.2 saintspelicans23 314.26	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Big T vs gatorbait	+0.4+0.2-0.4
Young Money vs Desert Storm	-0.1-0.0+0.1
CP84 vs Phil	-0.0+0.1+0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

14		6	-	0	-	0	13	13	22	4	18	26	5	0	0
13		5	-	0	-	1	9	9	18	0	7	29	24	4	0
12		5	-	1	-	0	4	4	8	0	2	14	37	25	7	1
		4	-	0	-	2	5	4	6		3	11	43	23	4
11		4	-	1	-	1	0	0	1		0	2	22	44	27	4
10		4	-	2	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	27	44	22
		3	-	1	-	2	0	0	0				5	25	47	22
9		3	-	2	-	1	0	0	0			0	0	6	40	54
		2	-	1	-	3										100
8		3	-	3	-	0	0	0	0			0	0	2	23	76
		2	-	2	-	2								1	19	80
7		2	-	3	-	1								0	5	95
		1	-	2	-	3										100
6		2	-	4	-	0								0	2	98
		1	-	3	-	2									1	99
2	-5															100

Total:							1	1	1	0	0	2	5	9	18	63