How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Friday, 11/9100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Average seed
Caruana vs Carlsen+15.5*-0.0-15.5
+0.2*-0.0-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Saturday, 11/10100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Average seed
Carlsen vs Caruana-15.5*+0.0+15.5
-0.2*+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Caruana finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-Lwins title12Count
6.5-12Yes10012,263,174,765*
63-6-350.0%50501,835,330,576
4-4-450.050501,437,725,321
2-8-250.05050706,058,609
5-2-550.05050288,303,396
1-10-150.0505075,121,121
6-0-650.050506,692,555
0-12-050.050501,361,481
0-5.5No10012,262,997,608*
Total:50.0%505028,876,765,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Win Championship