SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Being true to yourself,
80’s style

Frederick Keys "Orioles" Playoff Chances 2012 50/50

Beat Lynchburg 5-3, Beat Lynchburg 1-0, playoff odds up 2.7 to 4.2%

26-34 .433

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lynchburg 0 Frederick 1	+1.0		+0.2
Lynchburg 3 Frederick 5	+1.0		+0.2
Winston-Salem 5 Wilmington 3	+0.3
Winston-Salem 11 Wilmington 3	+0.3
Potomac 4 Salem 2	-0.2		-0.1
Potomac 5 Salem 4	-0.2		-0.1

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lynchburg vs Frederick	-2.7+2.7		-0.3+0.3
Lynchburg vs Frederick	-2.6+2.6		-0.3+0.3
Potomac vs Salem	-0.9+0.9		-0.1+0.1
Potomac vs Salem	-0.9+0.9		-0.1+0.1
Winston-Salem vs Wilmington	+0.6-0.6		+0.1-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Frederick finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

36		10	-	0	92.3	%		92	1	6	1	0			32,585
35		9	-	1	75.3			75	0	13	11	1	0		242,818
34		8	-	2	46.0			46	0	8	27	16	2	0	1,083,694
33		7	-	3	10.5			11		0	10	39	30	10	2,880,266
32		6	-	4	0.5			0		0	0	9	37	53	5,041,464
31		5	-	5	Out						0	1	15	85	6,048,306
30		4	-	6	Out						0	0	3	97	5,043,862
29		3	-	7	Out							0	0	100	2,882,627
26	-28				Out									100	1,359,528	*

Total:					4.2	%		4	0	1	3	7	16	70	24,615,150

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs