SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Frederick Keys "Orioles" Playoff Chances 2012

Beat Lynchburg 5-3, Beat Lynchburg 1-0, playoff odds up 4 to 5%

26-34 .433

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lynchburg 0 Frederick 1	+1.1		+0.2
Lynchburg 3 Frederick 5	+1.1		+0.2
Winston-Salem 5 Wilmington 3	+0.1
Winston-Salem 11 Wilmington 3	+0.1
Potomac 5 Salem 4			-0.1
Potomac 4 Salem 2			-0.1

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lynchburg vs Frederick	-2.9+4.8		-0.3+0.4
Lynchburg vs Frederick	-2.9+4.8		-0.3+0.4
Potomac vs Salem	-0.6+0.3		-0.1+0.1
Potomac vs Salem	-0.5+0.3		-0.1+0.1
Winston-Salem vs Wilmington	+0.2-0.5		+0.0-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Frederick finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

36		10	-	0	99.6	%		100	0	0	0				16,069
35		9	-	1	97.2			97	0	1	1	0	0		94,105
34		8	-	2	85.3			85		4	8	3	0		545,381
33		7	-	3	35.8			36		1	16	36	10	1	1,879,242
32		6	-	4	3.6			4		0	2	37	43	13	4,237,683
31		5	-	5	Out						0	11	45	43	6,508,466
30		4	-	6	Out						0	1	22	77	6,892,616
29		3	-	7	Out						0	0	4	96	4,966,208
26	-28				Out									100	3,056,402	*

Total:					5.0	%		5	0	0	2	11	24	58	28,196,172

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs