How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 5/6 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Top 4 100.0* Average seed Power 136 Lions 59 -5.2 -1.4 -0.9 Dockers 77 Giants 95 -0.3 -0.1 Tigers 90 Hawks 136 -0.2 -0.1 Swans 135 Bombers 54 -0.1 -0.1 Saints 75 Kangaroos 82 +0.1 -0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Tigers vs Magpies +0.1*+0.1-0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 5/13 100.0* Chance in playoffs 100.0* Top 4 100.0* Average seed Demons vs Lions -3.7-1.1+3.7 -0.7-0.3+0.7 -0.8-0.1+0.8 Lions vs Hawks +3.7-1.0-3.6 +0.7-0.3-0.7 +0.8-0.1-0.8 Lions vs Magpies +3.6-0.9-3.6 +0.7-0.3-0.7 +0.8-0.1-0.8 Hawks vs Dockers -0.2*-0.2+0.2 -0.1*+0.0+0.1 Kangaroos vs Blues +0.2*-0.2-0.2 +0.1*-0.0-0.1 Saints vs Dockers -0.1*-0.0+0.1 Hawks vs Swans -0.1*-0.2+0.1 Crows vs Cats -0.1*-0.1+0.1 Eagles vs Saints -0.1*+0.0+0.1 Saints vs Bombers -0.1*+0.2+0.1 Swans vs Kangaroos -0.1*+0.0+0.1 Tigers vs Swans +0.1*-0.1-0.1 +0.1*-0.0-0.1 -0.1*+0.0+0.1 Magpies vs Bulldogs +0.1*-0.0-0.1 +0.1*+0.0-0.1 Dockers vs Tigers +0.1*+0.2-0.1 Blues vs Cats +0.1*+0.0-0.1 Magpies vs Cats +0.1*-0.0-0.1 Bombers vs Kangaroos +0.1*-0.1-0.0 -0.1*-0.0+0.1 Blues vs Power +0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Lions finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance in Chance will finish regular season at seed TP W - D - L playoffs Top 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Count 64 15 - 0 - 0 In Yes 69 29 2 0 557 62 14 - 1 - 0 In Yes 49 33 16 2 55 60 14 - 0 - 1 In 99.8 % 32 47 19 2 0 1,093 * 58 13 - 1 - 1 In 98.7 15 42 32 10 1 832 * 56 13 - 0 - 2 In 93.7 6 28 38 22 6 1 0 7,924 * 54 12 - 1 - 2 In 74.5 1 10 28 36 20 5 1 5,270 * 52 12 - 0 - 3 100.0 % 48.9 0 3 15 31 30 16 4 1 0 33,121 11 - 2 - 2 99.9 49.3 0 4 14 31 31 15 5 0 0 1,638 * 50 11 - 1 - 3 99.1 13.5 0 2 11 28 32 20 6 1 0 21,166 10 - 3 - 2 98.2 14.9 2 13 24 34 20 5 2 335 48 11 - 0 - 4 91.9 3.3 0 0 3 12 27 30 19 7 1 0 0 99,117 10 - 2 - 3 92.0 3.4 0 3 12 26 31 20 7 1 0 6,150 * 46 10 - 1 - 4 60.4 0.1 0 1 7 20 32 26 11 2 0 0 57,730 9 - 3 - 3 64.3 0.3 0 1 8 22 34 25 9 2 0 1,059 * 44 10 - 0 - 5 26.6 0.0 0 0 1 6 19 30 26 13 4 0 0 0 219,290 9 - 2 - 4 25.9 No 0 1 6 19 31 27 13 3 0 0 15,284 * 42 9 - 1 - 5 2.7 No 0 0 2 12 27 32 19 6 1 0 0 114,424 8 - 3 - 4 3.1 No 0 0 3 13 26 32 20 5 1 0 0 2,445 * 40 9 - 0 - 6 0.3 No 0 0 0 2 11 25 31 21 8 1 0 0 365,324 8 - 2 - 5 0.2 No 0 0 2 10 25 31 22 8 1 0 27,588 * 38 8 - 1 - 6 0.0 No 0 0 1 7 21 33 26 10 2 0 0 172,794 7 - 3 - 5 0.0 No 0 0 1 7 20 33 26 10 2 0 3,885 * 36 8 - 0 - 7 0.0 No 0 0 0 1 7 21 33 26 10 2 0 470,442 7 - 2 - 6 Out No 0 0 1 7 21 33 26 10 2 0 36,569 6 - 4 - 5 Out No 1 5 20 36 26 10 2 377 * 34 7 - 1 - 7 Out No 0 0 1 6 22 36 27 8 1 197,329 6 - 3 - 6 Out No 0 1 6 20 36 27 8 1 4,440 * 32 7 - 0 - 8 Out No 0 0 1 9 26 37 22 4 468,974 6 - 2 - 7 Out No 0 0 1 9 26 37 22 4 36,197 5 - 4 - 6 Out No 1 10 32 31 22 3 352 * 30 6 - 1 - 8 Out No 0 0 2 12 35 38 13 172,513 5 - 3 - 7 Out No 0 2 12 35 38 12 3,897 * 28 6 - 0 - 9 Out No 0 0 4 22 45 28 363,413 5 - 2 - 8 Out No 0 0 4 22 45 28 27,805 * 26 5 - 1 - 9 Out No 0 1 11 43 45 114,996 4 - 3 - 8 Out No 0 1 10 42 47 2,390 * 24 5 - 0 - 10 Out No 0 0 4 32 63 219,628 4 - 2 - 9 Out No 0 4 32 64 15,051 * 22 4 - 1 - 10 Out No 0 1 21 77 57,586 3 - 3 - 9 Out No 1 24 74 1,038 * 20 4 - 0 - 11 Out No 0 12 87 99,823 * 3 - 2 - 10 Out No 0 0 12 88 5,986 18 3 - 1 - 11 Out No 0 6 94 20,765 2 - 3 - 10 Out No 8 92 298 16 3 - 0 - 12 Out No 0 3 97 33,119 2 - 2 - 11 Out No 3 97 1,686 * 14 2 - 1 - 12 Out No 1 99 5,242 * 12 2 - 0 - 13 Out No 1 99 7,990 * 10 1 - 1 - 13 Out No 0 100 832 * 4 -8 Out No 100 1,713 * Total: 7.7 % 1.1 % 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 7 8 10 11 13 15 16 3,527,532

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs