Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsTop 4Chance will finish regular season at seedWooden Spoon
SaturdayPGW-L-TGD%Change%Change123456789101112131415161718Avg.Change%ChangeRPISunday
GWSat Brisbane3619-3-016992.4%-0.171.1%-0.729191310864422111000003.6-0.040.0%-0.01Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide369-4-040691.3+0.068.2-0.624191411865432211000003.8-0.030.04Adelaide
Geelong3218-4-015981.8-0.151.3-0.8141312111087644322110005.2-0.040.0-0.02FremantleGeelong
Port AdelaideWCollingwood 93-62328-5-035479.1+9.846.6+9.9101313111097654332111005.6+1.060.0-0.15Port Adelaide
Melbourneat West Coast2817-5-016665.7+0.032.2-0.66899998776544322107.0-0.010.3-0.06Melbourne
Richmond2817-5-09363.8-0.130.4-0.65799998776654322107.2-0.010.3-0.07CarltonRichmond
West CoastMelbourne2817-5-02762.2-0.129.0-0.75789988877654432107.4-0.020.3+0.03West Coast
BulldogsNorth Melbourne2416-6-0-3540.8-0.013.6-0.42345677788777665429.7+0.011.5-0.18Western Bulldogs
St Kilda2416-6-0-5540.5-0.013.7-0.41345677778777765419.7+0.011.3-0.011Gold CoastSt Kilda
Fremantle2416-6-0-25236.0-0.110.9-0.412345677788787765210.2+0.021.6-0.110at GeelongFremantle
Sydney246-7-05733.2-0.19.1-0.312345667888888764210.4+0.011.6-0.114Sydney
Essendon246-7-03132.6-0.08.3-0.311345667888887765210.5+0.012.1-0.19Essendon
Gold Coast2015-7-0-14521.4-0.14.8-0.2011234456778999109512.0+0.035.1-0.116at St KildaGold Coast
Carlton2015-7-0-18420.6+0.04.7-0.20112344567789910109512.1+0.035.1-0.113at RichmondCarlton
CollingwoodLPort Adelaide 62-93205-8-0-1315.8-9.02.8-3.6001123355679910111111512.7-1.105.4+1.712Collingwood
Hawthorn205-8-0-27011.8-0.11.8-0.1001122345568910111314813.3+0.037.6-0.217Hawthorn
North Melbourneat Bulldogs1614-8-0-8510.6-0.11.5-0.1000112234467891113151113.7+0.0311.4-0.215North Melbourne
BrisbaneGWS812-10-0-4230.6-0.00.0-0.00000000001122469185616.9+0.0256.4-0.618Brisbane

Games have been declared neutral when the away team plays home games in the same stadium (Adelaide/Port and Geelong/North Melbourne), when Melbourne teams play in Melbourne regardless of stadium, and any games outside the normal home catchment area (Cairns/Tasmania matches).

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 6/22
Sydney 86 Essendon 85
7:50 PM Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS+0.4
+0.0
Adelaide+0.4
Geelong+0.4
Port Adelaide+0.3
Melbourne+0.2
+0.3
Richmond+0.2
+0.3
West Coast+0.1
+0.3
Bulldogs+0.2
St Kilda+0.2
+0.2
Fremantle+0.3
+0.2
Sydney+10.0
+3.7
-2.0
+1.2
Essendon-12.2
-6.9
+1.0
-1.3
North Melbourne+0.2
Brisbane+0.5
Collingwood 62 Port Adelaide 93
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS-0.1
-0.8
-0.0
Adelaide-0.8
-0.0
Geelong-0.9
-0.0
Port Adelaide+10.9
+11.2
+1.2
Melbourne-0.8
-0.0
Richmond-0.7
-0.0
West Coast-0.7
Bulldogs-0.4
+0.0
St Kilda-0.5
Fremantle-0.1
-0.4
Sydney-0.3
Essendon-0.1
-0.4
+0.0
Gold Coast-0.2
+0.0
Carlton-0.2
-0.2
Collingwood-9.8
-3.8
+2.1
-1.2
Hawthorn-0.2
North Melbourne-0.2
Brisbane-0.9
Adelaide 82 Hawthorn 96
7:20 PM Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS+0.7
+0.1
Adelaide-3.5
-8.9
-0.7
Geelong+0.9
+0.1
Port Adelaide+0.9
Melbourne+0.8
Richmond+0.8
West Coast+0.8
Bulldogs+0.5
St Kilda+0.5
Fremantle+0.4
Sydney+0.3
+0.2
Essendon+0.6
Gold Coast+0.2
+0.4
-0.1
Carlton+0.2
+0.3
-0.1
Collingwood+0.3
+0.3
Hawthorn+4.5
+0.9
-5.2
+0.9
North Melbourne+0.7
-0.1
Brisbane+2.6
-0.1
Geelong vs FremantleIf winner is:HomeTieAway
1:10 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Geelong90.186.273.4
63.355.439.2
0.0No0.1
4.24.76.2
Fremantle24.441.147.5
5.011.516.7
2.60.90.6
11.59.79.0
Sydney33.431.032.9
8.78.29.4
10.410.610.5
Bulldogs vs North MelbourneHomeTieAway
7:25 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Bulldogs52.7*41.429.0
20.012.57.3
0.40.82.6
8.49.610.9
North Melbourne5.07.116.3
0.40.72.7
16.4*11.96.4
14.714.212.7
Brisbane54.4*57.358.3
16.8*16.916.9
St Kilda vs Gold CoastHomeTieAway
4:40 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
St Kilda52.3*41.028.6
20.012.27.3
0.40.72.2
8.49.611.0
Gold Coast12.420.330.4
1.83.67.7
7.83.82.4
13.212.010.8
West Coast vs MelbourneHomeTieAway
5:40 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Melbourne54.067.177.4
20.930.743.6
0.50.10.1
8.37.05.8
West Coast74.265.850.2
39.7*29.818.2
0.10.10.6
6.27.18.7
Richmond vs CarltonHomeTieAway
3:20 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Richmond75.466.652.2
40.7*30.420.1
0.10.10.6
6.07.08.5
Carlton11.719.429.5
1.73.67.7
7.93.62.4
13.312.110.9
Brisbane55.357.657.4
16.816.916.9
Brisbane vs GWSHomeTieAway
4:35 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS88.294.896.5
61.477.080.7
0.0*NoNo
4.33.12.9
Geelong81.9*81.281.6
52.4*50.450.2
5.1*5.35.3
Port Adelaide79.3*79.278.8
47.7*45.745.6
5.55.65.6
Gold Coast21.6*21.021.2
5.0*4.44.5
6.34.43.9
Carlton20.8*20.320.4
5.0*4.54.5
6.34.44.0
Collingwood15.9*15.815.6
2.9*2.82.6
6.8*5.44.0
Hawthorn11.9*12.111.7
1.9*1.61.6
9.56.15.7
13.313.213.3
North Melbourne10.7*10.410.5
13.8*11.49.0
Brisbane1.20.20.1
45.861.167.0
16.417.117.3
Week of 6/30
Bulldogs vs West CoastIf winner is:HomeTieAway
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS71.472.870.8
3.63.53.6
West Coast50.166.274.3
18.6*29.839.3
0.60.10.1
8.77.16.2
Bulldogs53.2*41.528.5
20.511.96.8
0.50.82.5
8.49.611.0
Port Adelaide vs RichmondHomeTieAway
7:10 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Port Adelaide88.5*79.269.6
59.943.033.4
4.45.76.7
Richmond52.166.175.5
19.1*29.541.8
0.60.10.1
8.57.16.0
Fremantle vs St KildaHomeTieAway
2:40 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
St Kilda28.442.452.5
7.212.420.2
2.20.70.4
11.09.58.4
Fremantle47.840.024.1
16.5*11.45.3
0.50.82.7
8.99.711.5
Melbourne vs SydneyHomeTieAway
7:50 PM Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Geelong50.653.352.0
5.25.15.2
Melbourne77.4*66.554.0
43.030.321.5
0.10.10.5
5.87.08.2
Sydney21.228.745.2
3.86.014.4
2.71.20.5
11.710.89.1
Essendon vs BrisbaneHomeTieAway
1:10 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Essendon43.528.821.6
12.95.63.7
0.41.53.7
9.310.911.8
Gold Coast20.8*21.822.0
4.04.46.2
Carlton20.0*21.221.2
4.04.66.2
12.112.012.0
Collingwood15.2*15.216.3
4.1*5.26.7
Hawthorn11.3*12.012.3
5.86.49.4
13.313.213.3
North Melbourne10.2*10.611.0
9.2*11.413.6
Brisbane0.10.21.2
67.460.845.2
17.317.116.4
Gold Coast vs North MelbourneHomeTieAway
4:35 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Gold Coast30.119.812.7
7.63.51.9
2.13.98.1
10.812.113.2
North Melbourne5.17.216.2
0.40.72.6
16.6*11.46.2
14.814.212.7
Brisbane55.258.157.6
Carlton vs AdelaideHomeTieAway
2:10 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Adelaide86.392.796.3
57.369.279.1
0.0*NoNo
4.73.73.0
Carlton29.1*19.912.1
7.73.61.7
2.43.87.9
10.912.113.2
Brisbane57.5*57.155.3
GWS vs GeelongHomeTieAway
7:25 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS96.695.388.1
81.977.060.2
No*No0.0
2.83.14.4
Geelong73.886.289.8
38.655.963.9
6.34.74.1
Port Adelaide79.3*79.078.8
46.944.746.4
5.65.75.6
Hawthorn vs CollingwoodHomeTieAway
3:20 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Collingwood8.211.123.4
0.91.34.7
8.6*5.22.2
13.913.211.5
Hawthorn18.110.55.5
3.11.00.5
3.55.411.7
12.213.314.4
Brisbane56.858.555.9
16.916.916.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Anonymous for adding this league.