"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Average seed
Essendon 80 Adelaide 123 -21.6
No
-1.0
West Coast 100 Carlton 83 -3.7
-0.2
Bulldogs 57 GWS 105 +3.3
-0.2
+0.1
Sydney 143 Fremantle 39 -1.9
-0.3
-0.1
Hawthorn 116 North Melbourne 89 -0.8
-0.1
Port Adelaide 98 Collingwood 71 -0.8
+0.0
Melbourne 96 St Kilda 72 -0.2
+0.0
Week of 8/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Average seed
Gold Coast 57 Essendon 90 +20.7
+1.0
Melbourne 104 Brisbane 91 -6.4
-0.2
GWS 81 West Coast 60 +4.4
+0.2
St Kilda 127 North Melbourne 78 -3.9
-0.1
Bulldogs 79 Port Adelaide 96 +3.4
+0.1
Carlton 77 Hawthorn 70 +1.8
+0.2
Collingwood 59 Geelong 70 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 8/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Average seed
Essendon vs Fremantle+40.9-36.1-40.6
+1.0-0.8-1.0
West Coast vs Adelaide-8.2*-0.0+8.2
-0.3-0.1+0.3
Richmond vs St Kilda+5.0-3.3-4.9
+0.3-0.2-0.3
Hawthorn vs Bulldogs+4.6-3.7-4.5
+0.3-0.2-0.3
Collingwood vs Melbourne+4.5-4.4-4.4
+0.3-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Essendon finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-L-TplayoffsTop 4123456789101112131415161718SpoonCount
481-0-089.7%No40491010No714,203,662
460-0-112.7No13383712No7,171,514
440-1-08.2No8314119No714,176,720
Total:48.8%No2029212110No1,435,551,896
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs