Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

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Chance will make playoffsTop 4Chance will finish regular season at seedWooden Spoon
6/25PGW-L-TGD%Change%Change123456789101112131415161718Avg.Change%ChangeRPIStrengthFriday
GWS4010-3-022999.7%-0.089.7%-0.8412515953110000000002.3-0.04No1.643Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide369-4-040699.4-0.086.8-0.63227171164210000000002.6-0.02No3.721Adelaide
Port Adelaide328-5-035498.0-0.269.9-2.2111823181385211000000003.7-0.090.0%8.715Port Adelaide
GeelongWFremantle 74-72369-4-016197.1+0.662.1+0.51014181915116321000000004.1+0.060.02.604Geelong
Melbourne328-5-016991.1-0.638.8-2.0471216181611742110000005.3-0.100.04.608SydneyMelbourne
RichmondWCarlton 84-58328-5-011989.8+4.734.6+6.2261115181712853110000005.5+0.470.0-0.07.588Richmond
Essendon246-7-03151.0-1.34.6-0.4001361015151411964211008.7-0.050.09.521Essendon
Bulldogs287-6-0-3448.9-0.55.1-0.30113610141514121074211008.70.06.475Western Bulldogs
West Coast287-6-02445.5-2.54.3-0.7001359131515131075311008.9-0.130.05.517West Coast
Sydney246-7-05732.2-1.21.8-0.2000135913151513107421009.7-0.020.013.541at MelbourneSydney
St KildaWGold Coast 104-72287-6-0-2327.8+8.02.0+0.80001358101214141296421010.2+0.950.0-0.111.484St Kilda
Collingwood205-8-0-138.9-0.20.2-0.00000013479121414121085012.3+0.110.2-0.012.491Collingwood
FremantleLGeelong 72-74246-7-0-2544.4-1.40.1-0.10000011246912151514128013.2-0.110.4+0.010.329Fremantle
Gold CoastLSt Kilda 72-104205-8-0-1772.5-3.70.0-0.100000011347101315161613113.9-0.771.4+0.617.387Gold Coast
North Melbourne164-9-0-861.9-0.10.0-0.00000000124691214161716214.2+0.121.9-0.016.445North Melbourne
Hawthorn205-8-0-2701.0-0.10.0-0.0000000011246913162026214.9+0.092.5+0.114.327Hawthorn
CarltonLRichmond 58-84205-8-0-2100.9-1.30.0-0.0000000011235812172125315.0-0.493.3+1.015.346Carlton
Brisbane82-11-0-4830.0-0.00.0000000000001279017.9+0.0390.2-1.618.251Brisbane

Games have been declared neutral when the away team plays home games in the same stadium (Adelaide/Port and Geelong/North Melbourne), when Melbourne teams play in Melbourne regardless of stadium, and any games outside the normal home catchment area (Cairns/Tasmania matches).

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 6/22
West Coast 96 Melbourne 99
5:40 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS-0.7
Port Adelaide-1.1
Geelong-1.3
Melbourne+7.9
+12.5
+0.9
Richmond+0.5
-1.0
Essendon+1.0
Bulldogs+0.9
West Coast-13.3
-6.9
-1.0
Sydney+1.0
Bulldogs 107 North Melbourne 106
7:25 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Melbourne-0.7
Richmond-0.7
Essendon-1.4
Bulldogs+10.9
+2.2
+0.9
West Coast-1.3
Sydney-1.3
St Kilda-0.8
North Melbourne-2.8
+1.2
-0.8
Brisbane-0.8
Sydney 86 Essendon 85
7:50 PM Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Port Adelaide+0.6
Geelong+0.6
Melbourne+0.5
Richmond+0.5
Essendon-8.4
-4.2
-0.6
Sydney+7.4
+0.8
+0.6
Collingwood 62 Port Adelaide 93
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS-0.9
Adelaide-0.7
Port Adelaide+2.8
+10.1
No
+0.6
Geelong-1.6
Melbourne+0.4
-1.7
Richmond-1.7
Essendon+0.7
-0.6
West Coast+0.6
-1.0
Sydney+0.6
Collingwood-7.0
-1.0
-0.8
Richmond 84 Carlton 58
3:20 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS-0.5
Adelaide-0.5
Port Adelaide-1.1
Geelong-1.2
Melbourne-1.1
Richmond+4.8
+5.6
+0.5
Essendon-0.5
Bulldogs-0.5
West Coast-0.6
Sydney-0.6
St Kilda-0.4
Carlton-1.1
+0.7
-0.4
Brisbane-0.5
St Kilda 104 Gold Coast 72
4:40 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
St Kilda+4.7
+0.6
Gold Coast-2.8
+0.3
-0.6
Geelong 74 Fremantle 72
1:10 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS-0.2
Adelaide-0.3
Port Adelaide-0.6
Geelong+1.1
+3.7
+0.2
Melbourne-0.9
Richmond-0.7
Essendon-0.2
Bulldogs-0.2
Fremantle-1.5
-0.3
Adelaide 82 Hawthorn 96
7:20 PM Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Adelaide-0.5
-6.5
-0.6
Hawthorn+0.8
-7.4
+0.9
Brisbane+5.9
Brisbane 86 GWS 146
4:35 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS+0.5
+3.7
+0.2
Port Adelaide-0.6
Geelong-0.6
Melbourne-0.7
Richmond-0.7
West Coast-0.4
Gold Coast-0.4
North Melbourne-0.5
Hawthorn-1.0
Carlton-0.9
BrisbaneNo
+3.2
Week of 6/30
Bulldogs vs West CoastIf winner is:HomeTieAway
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Bulldogs60.648.230.9
7.34.21.6
8.08.79.8
West Coast33.650.264.0
1.84.38.1
9.68.67.8
Melbourne vs SydneyHomeTieAway
7:50 PM Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Port Adelaide68.670.072.7
3.83.73.6
Geelong97.297.296.8
60.764.165.1
4.14.04.0
Melbourne95.389.981.6
46.133.622.5
0.0No0.0
4.85.56.3
Richmond90.290.089.0
33.536.137.3
5.55.45.4
Sydney23.733.251.3
0.61.54.7
10.39.68.5
Essendon vs BrisbaneHomeTieAway
1:10 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Essendon54.640.130.7
5.32.11.0
8.49.410.1
Bulldogs48.351.352.5
8.78.68.5
West Coast44.947.649.0
8.98.88.7
Sydney31.533.435.7
9.89.79.6
St Kilda27.329.530.5
10.210.110.0
Hawthorn2.02.95.4
Carlton2.74.16.8
BrisbaneNo*No0.0
92.287.379.1
17.917.817.7
Fremantle vs St KildaHomeTieAway
2:40 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
St Kilda16.827.937.0
0.61.73.1
11.210.19.4
Fremantle7.74.81.6
0.10.10.6
12.312.914.0
Port Adelaide vs RichmondHomeTieAway
7:10 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Port Adelaide99.096.894.9
77.359.447.7
No*No0.0
3.44.34.8
Richmond87.693.696.5
27.141.857.2
0.0NoNo
5.95.14.3
Hawthorn vs CollingwoodHomeTieAway
3:20 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Collingwood3.25.211.7
0.60.30.1
13.512.911.7
Hawthorn2.31.10.4
0.71.33.4
13.914.615.4
Gold Coast vs North MelbourneHomeTieAway
4:35 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Gold Coast3.91.90.8
0.41.22.6
13.214.114.8
North Melbourne0.61.13.6
2.91.90.6
14.814.313.2
GWS vs GeelongHomeTieAway
7:25 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
GWS99.999.899.1
94.190.479.8
2.02.33.1
Port Adelaide70.567.268.4
3.73.93.7
Geelong96.198.699.3
54.571.279.0
4.53.63.1
Carlton vs AdelaideHomeTieAway
2:10 PM Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Top 4100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Adelaide98.399.099.7
75.281.390.2
3.43.02.4
Melbourne41.239.938.1
5.25.25.3
Carlton2.51.20.5
0.91.84.0
14.014.615.3

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Anonymous for adding this league.