UFA 00 Black Title Chances Fall2014

Tied Augusta Arsenal 1-1, title odds down 0.03 to 0.02%

2 points 0-1-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
UFA 00 Black 1 AFC Lightning 0 2	-1.9		-1.9		+4.3		-0.7
AFC Lightning 0 0 Lady Chiefs Pre 0	+0.2		+0.2		-0.1
Augusta Arsenal 0 UFA 00 Red 2	-0.2		-0.2		-0.6
Lady Chiefs Pre 0 SSA Chelsea 00G 1	+0.1		+0.1		+0.1
UFA 00 Red 2 ATHENS UNITED - 0	-0.1		-0.1
ATHENS UNITED - 6 Roswell Santos 1					+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
GSA 00 Red vs NASA G18 Premier					-0.2*+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the UFA 00 Black finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	Relegated		Count

47	9	-	0	-	0	62.5	%	62.5	%	62	34	3											No		3,191
44	8	-	1	-	0	20.5		20.5		20	51	26	2										No		664
42	8	-	0	-	1	8.5		8.5		9	39	41	12	0									No		2,407
41	7	-	2	-	0	4.0		4.0		4	28	46	21	1									No		1,666
39	7	-	1	-	1	0.7		0.7		1	11	41	38	8	0	0							No		11,922
38	6	-	3	-	0	0.2		0.2		0	7	35	44	14	1								No		2,244
37	7	-	0	-	2	0.1		0.1		0	3	25	48	22	2	0							No		21,592
36	6	-	2	-	1	0.0		0.0		0	1	16	46	33	4	0							No		25,279
35	5	-	4	-	0	No		No			0	10	41	41	7	0							No		2,153
34	6	-	1	-	2	No		No			0	4	30	47	17	2	0						No		91,077
33	5	-	3	-	1	No		No			0	2	21	48	25	3	0						No		30,296
32	6	-	0	-	3	No		No			0	1	12	42	36	9	1	0					No		109,012
	4	-	5	-	0	No		No				2	17	44	30	6	0						No		1,205
31	5	-	2	-	2	No		No			0	0	6	32	42	17	2	0	0				No		162,303
30	4	-	4	-	1	No		No				0	3	25	44	24	5	0					No		22,328
29	5	-	1	-	3	No		No				0	1	12	37	36	12	2	0	0			No		387,567
	3	-	6	-	0	No		No					2	17	41	30	10	0					No		487
28	4	-	3	-	2	No		No				0	0	6	28	41	21	4	0	0			No		159,194
27	5	-	0	-	4	No		No					0	2	18	39	31	9	1	0			No		345,386
	3	-	5	-	1	No		No					0	4	22	40	27	6	0	0			No		10,672
26	4	-	2	-	3	No		No					0	1	9	31	39	18	3	0	0		0.0	%	564,398	*
25	3	-	4	-	2	No		No						0	4	22	40	27	6	0	0		0.0		92,669
24	4	-	1	-	4	No		No						0	1	11	33	37	15	2	0	0	0.1		1,001,129
	2	-	6	-	1	No		No							2	16	37	34	11	1	0		0.0		3,001
23	3	-	3	-	3	No		No						0	0	4	23	41	26	6	0	0	0.3		434,080	*
22	4	-	0	-	5	No		No							0	2	14	37	35	11	1	0	1.0		705,852
	2	-	5	-	2	No		No							0	2	15	38	34	10	1	0	0.7		31,681
21	3	-	2	-	4	No		No							0	0	6	27	41	22	3	0	3.5		1,148,182	*
20	2	-	4	-	3	No		No								0	2	17	41	32	7	0	7.7		185,315
19	3	-	1	-	5	No		No								0	1	9	33	41	15	1	16.3		1,610,186
	1	-	6	-	2	No		No								0	1	11	36	39	12	1	13.6		6,087
18	2	-	3	-	4	No		No								0	0	3	22	45	26	3	29.5		650,573	*
17	3	-	0	-	6	No		No								0	0	1	15	43	34	6	40.4		938,589
	1	-	5	-	3	No		No									0	2	15	43	34	6	39.7		41,781
16	2	-	2	-	5	No		No									0	0	8	35	44	13	56.7		1,357,961
	0	-	7	-	2	No		No										1	8	40	41	10	51.2		504
15	1	-	4	-	4	No		No										0	3	26	50	20	70.6		181,872
14	2	-	1	-	6	No		No										0	1	18	51	30	80.5		1,574,011
	0	-	6	-	3	No		No											1	19	51	28	79.4		3,863
13	1	-	3	-	5	No		No										0	0	10	47	43	90.1		503,055
12	2	-	0	-	7	No		No										0	0	7	43	50	93.2		779,560
	0	-	5	-	4	No		No										0	0	6	43	51	93.9		20,111
11	1	-	2	-	6	No		No											0	3	35	62	96.9		869,241
10	0	-	4	-	5	No		No											0	1	26	73	98.9		68,959
9	1	-	1	-	7	No		No											0	1	19	80	99.4		854,466
8	0	-	3	-	6	No		No												0	11	89	99.9		157,985
7	1	-	0	-	8	No		No												0	9	91	100.0		367,097
6	0	-	2	-	7	No		No												0	5	95	100.0		232,048
4	0	-	1	-	8	No		No													1	99	Yes		197,378
2	0	-	0	-	9	No		No														100	Yes		77,541

Total:						0.0	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	13	17	21	23	44.1	%	16,049,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship