Swift Current Broncos Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Beat Moose Jaw 5-4 (ot), playoff odds up 0.3 to 99.5%

35 points 16 10-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	+0.3		+0.2		+0.2
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.0
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2					-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Swift Current vs Calgary	+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.0-0.4		+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.2-0.3-0.6		+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0				+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer			-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0*+0.1+0.1
Kamloops vs Kelowna			+0.2+0.1*+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Spokane vs Portland			+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Swift Current finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

112	-121						In		97.6	%	100												736	*
111		37	4		-	2	In		88.0		99	1											309	*
110		36	4		-	3	In		82.6		99	1											685	*
109		36	5		-	2	In		76.3		99	1											1,371	*
108		35	5		-	3	In		70.3		98	2											2,638	*
107		35	6		-	2	In		60.6		97	3											4,757	*
106		34	6		-	3	In		50.5		95	5	0										8,102	*
105		33	6		-	4	In		41.4		92	8	0										13,592	*
104		33	7		-	3	In		31.3		89	11	0										20,880	*
103		32	7		-	4	In		22.8		85	15	0										31,638	*
102		32	8		-	3	In		14.9		79	21	0	0									45,784	*
101		31	8		-	4	In		8.9		72	28	0	0									64,087	*
100		31	9		-	3	In		5.1		64	35	1	0									87,693	*
99		30	9		-	4	In		2.4		56	43	1	0									113,983	*
98		30	10		-	3	In		1.1		47	51	2	0	0								143,862	*
97		29	10		-	4	In		0.4		37	60	3	0	0								174,470	*
96		29	11		-	3	In		0.1		29	67	4	1	0								204,877	*
95		28	11		-	4	In		0.0		21	73	6	1	0								234,900	*
94		28	12		-	3	In		0.0		14	76	7	2	0	0							258,592	*
93		27	12		-	4	In		0.0		9	78	9	4	0	0							279,164	*
92		27	13		-	3	In		0.0		5	77	10	7	1	0							290,677	*
91		26	13		-	4	In		No		3	74	10	11	2	0	0						294,687	*
90		26	14		-	3	In		No		1	69	10	16	4	0	0						289,194	*
89		25	14		-	4	In		No		1	62	9	20	8	1	0						277,139	*
88		25	15		-	3	In		No		0	55	7	23	13	2	0	0					257,615	*
87		24	15		-	4	In		No		0	46	5	25	20	4	0	0					232,891	*
86		24	16		-	3	In		No		0	38	3	23	27	8	1	0					204,321	*
85		23	16		-	4	In		No		0	30	2	20	32	14	2	0					175,318	*
84		22	16		-	5	100.0	%	No			22	1	15	35	23	5	0	0				146,561	*
83		22	17		-	4	100.0		No		0	16	0	10	33	31	9	1	0				118,230	*
82		21	17		-	5	99.9		No			10	0	5	27	38	17	2	0				93,359	*
81		21	18		-	4	99.6		No			6	0	3	20	39	26	6	0	0			72,246	*
80		20	18		-	5	98.8		No			4	0	1	13	36	34	12	1	0			53,819	*
79		20	19		-	4	96.8		No			2	0	0	7	29	40	20	3	0			39,636	*
78		19	19		-	5	92.9		No			1		0	3	20	40	29	7	0			28,001	*
77		19	20		-	4	86.4		No			0		0	1	12	35	38	13	1			19,438	*
76		18	20		-	5	75.9		No			0			0	6	27	42	22	2	0		13,245	*
75		18	21		-	4	63.1		No			0			0	3	18	42	32	5	0		8,648	*
74		17	21		-	5	49.3		No							1	11	37	41	10	0		5,651	*
73		17	22		-	4	38.4		No							1	7	31	46	15	0		3,408	*
72		16	22		-	5	24.8		No								2	22	49	25	1		2,018	*
71		16	23		-	4	15.7		No							0	1	14	46	35	3		1,230	*
70		16	24		-	3	9.6		No								1	9	44	43	4		727	*
69		15	24		-	4	5.6		No									6	37	50	8		376	*
68		15	25		-	3	2.4		No									2	30	51	16		209	*
67		14	25		-	4	2.0		No									2	22	63	13		101	*
66		13	25		-	5	Out		No										11	56	33		61	*
65		13	26		-	4	Out		No										6	66	28		32	*
64		13	27		-	3	Out		No											42	58		12	*
63		12	27		-	4	Out		No											60	40		5	*
62		11	27		-	5	Out		No											50	50		4	*
61		12	29		-	2	Out		No											25	75		4	*
60		10	28		-	5	Out		No											100			1
35		0	43		-	0	Out		No												0	100	488

Total:							99.5	%	1.2	%	14	53	5	10	9	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	4,321,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	-0.3
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Swift Current vs Calgary	-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.6
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

114	-121						100
113		38	3		-	2	91	9
112		37	3		-	3	92	8
111		37	4		-	2	88	11	1
110		36	4		-	3	83	16	1
109		36	5		-	2	76	23	1
108		35	5		-	3	70	27	2	0
107		35	6		-	2	61	36	3	0
106		34	6		-	3	50	45	4	0	0
105		33	6		-	4	41	51	7	1	0
104		33	7		-	3	31	58	9	2	0
103		32	7		-	4	23	62	12	3	0
102		32	8		-	3	15	64	15	6	0	0	0
101		31	8		-	4	9	63	18	10	0	0	0
100		31	9		-	3	5	59	19	16	1	0	0
99		30	9		-	4	2	53	19	24	1	0	0
98		30	10		-	3	1	45	18	34	1	1	0	0	0
97		29	10		-	4	0	37	15	45	2	1	0	0	0
96		29	11		-	3	0	28	12	54	2	2	1	0	0
95		28	11		-	4	0	21	9	63	2	4	1	0	0	0
94		28	12		-	3	0	14	6	70	2	5	2	1	0	0	0
93		27	12		-	4	0	9	4	73	2	7	3	1	0	0	0
92		27	13		-	3	0	5	3	74	1	9	4	3	1	0	0
91		26	13		-	4		3	2	72	1	10	5	6	2	0	0		0
90		26	14		-	3		1	1	68	0	10	5	10	3	1	0	0	0
89		25	14		-	4		1	0	62	0	9	5	15	6	2	1	0	0
88		25	15		-	3		0	0	55	0	7	4	19	9	4	2	0	0		0
87		24	15		-	4		0	0	46	0	5	3	22	12	8	4	0	0		0
86		24	16		-	3		0	0	38	0	3	1	22	13	14	8	0	1	0	0
85		23	16		-	4		0	0	30	0	2	1	19	12	20	13	1	2	0	0
84		22	16		-	5			0	22		1	0	15	10	25	19	3	4	0	0		0
83		22	17		-	4		0	0	16		0	0	10	6	27	24	7	9	0	1		0
82		21	17		-	5			0	10		0	0	5	3	24	26	12	16	1	2		0
81		21	18		-	4				6		0	0	3	1	18	23	17	24	2	6	0	0	0
80		20	18		-	5				4		0	0	1	1	12	16	19	31	4	12	0	1	0
79		20	19		-	4				2		0		0	0	7	10	19	33	6	19	0	3	0
78		19	19		-	5				1				0	0	3	5	15	30	10	28	1	7	0
77		19	20		-	4				0				0		1	2	10	23	12	36	2	13	1
76		18	20		-	5				0						0	1	5	15	13	38	4	22	2	0
75		18	21		-	4				0						0	0	2	8	10	36	6	32	5	0
74		17	21		-	5											0	1	3	8	30	7	41	10	0
73		17	22		-	4												1	2	5	22	9	46	15	1
72		16	22		-	5													0	2	14	8	48	25	2	0
71		16	23		-	4												0		1	7	8	44	36	5	0
70		16	24		-	3														1	4	5	40	43	8	0
69		15	24		-	4															2	4	31	50	13	1
68		15	25		-	3															0	2	23	49	24	0
67		14	25		-	4																2	15	52	28	3
66		13	25		-	5																	10	41	43	7
65		13	26		-	4																	3	41	47	9
64		13	27		-	3																		25	50	25
63		12	27		-	4																			60	40
62		11	27		-	5																			25	50	25
61		12	29		-	2																		25	25	50
60		10	28		-	5																				100
35		0	43		-	0																					0	100

Total:							1	13	5	48	1	5	2	8	4	5	4	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0