Regina Pats Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Medicine Hat 1-5, playoff odds down 9.6 to 70.7%

28 points 14 12-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	-2.9		-0.2
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.8		-0.0
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	+0.4
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	-0.2		-0.0
Calgary 0 Everett 1	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Regina vs Prince Albert	+4.4+4.0+3.7-0.6-0.6-5.1		+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	+1.3+0.2+0.1-0.9-1.2-1.0
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.9-0.1-0.2-1.4-1.3-1.3		+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.9+0.0+0.1-0.9-1.0-1.0
Swift Current vs Calgary	+0.2-0.1-0.0*-0.2-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Regina finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

106	-120						In		99.6	%	100												493	*
105		36	5		-	5	In		57.1		86	14											7	*
104		36	6		-	4	In		15.8		95	5											19	*
103		35	6		-	5	In		25.8		94	6											31	*
102		35	7		-	4	In		15.7		78	19	2										83	*
101		35	8		-	3	In		5.9		63	35	2										185	*
100		34	8		-	4	In		5.1		64	33	4										354	*
99		33	8		-	5	In		2.2		57	38	5										691	*
98		33	9		-	4	In		1.0		44	46	10	1									1,138	*
97		32	9		-	5	In		0.1		33	54	12	1	0								2,048	*
96		32	10		-	4	In		0.1		24	59	15	3	0								3,506	*
95		31	10		-	5	In		0.1		17	59	20	4	0								5,630	*
94		31	11		-	4	In		0.0		11	58	23	8	0	0							9,069	*
93		30	11		-	5	In		No		7	54	24	14	1	0							13,854	*
92		29	11		-	6	In		No		3	48	25	20	3	0	0						20,420	*
91		29	12		-	5	In		No		2	42	23	27	7	0	0						29,498	*
90		28	12		-	6	In		No		1	34	19	33	12	1	0						41,409	*
89		28	13		-	5	In		No		0	26	15	36	20	3	0						56,441	*
88		27	13		-	6	In		No		0	19	10	36	27	7	0	0					75,056	*
87		27	14		-	5	In		No		0	14	6	32	35	12	1	0					96,010	*
86		26	14		-	6	100.0	%	No		0	9	3	25	40	20	3	0	0				119,877	*
85		26	15		-	5	100.0		No		0	6	1	17	40	29	7	0	0				145,660	*
84		25	15		-	6	100.0		No			3	1	10	35	37	12	1	0				172,837	*
83		25	16		-	5	99.9		No			2	0	6	28	42	20	3	0	0			199,188	*
82		24	16		-	6	99.7		No			1	0	3	19	41	30	6	0	0			223,686	*
81		24	17		-	5	99.0		No			0	0	1	12	36	38	12	1	0			246,882	*
80		23	17		-	6	97.6		No			0	0	0	6	29	43	19	2	0			261,879	*
79		23	18		-	5	94.7		No			0		0	3	20	43	28	5	0			271,817	*
78		22	18		-	6	89.8		No			0		0	1	13	40	36	10	0			276,672	*
77		22	19		-	5	82.4		No			0		0	0	7	32	42	16	1	0		273,494	*
76		21	19		-	6	72.4		No			0		0	0	4	24	45	25	3	0		263,562	*
75		21	20		-	5	60.4		No			0			0	2	16	43	34	5	0		246,749	*
74		20	20		-	6	47.9		No						0	1	10	38	42	10	0		225,738	*
73		20	21		-	5	35.6		No			0			0	0	5	30	48	16	0		202,441	*
72		19	21		-	6	24.9		No							0	3	22	50	24	1		176,298	*
71		19	22		-	5	16.1		No							0	1	15	49	33	2		149,221	*
70		18	22		-	6	9.9		No							0	0	9	45	42	3		124,523	*
69		18	23		-	5	5.5		No								0	5	38	51	6		99,442	*
68		17	23		-	6	2.9		No								0	3	30	58	9		79,017	*
67		17	24		-	5	1.4		No								0	1	23	62	14	0	60,299	*
66		16	24		-	6	0.7		No									1	16	63	20	0	45,089	*
65		16	25		-	5	0.3		No								0	0	11	62	26	0	32,558	*
64		15	25		-	6	0.1		No									0	7	58	35	0	23,381	*
63		15	26		-	5	0.1		No									0	4	53	42	0	15,892	*
62		14	26		-	6	0.0		No									0	2	48	50	0	10,648	*
61		14	27		-	5	Out		No										1	41	58	0	7,034	*
60		13	27		-	6	Out		No										1	33	65	1	4,530	*
59		13	28		-	5	Out		No										0	26	72	1	2,815	*
58		13	29		-	4	Out		No										0	23	75	2	1,614	*
57		12	29		-	5	Out		No										0	15	81	4	984	*
56		11	29		-	6	Out		No											12	84	4	567	*
55		11	30		-	5	Out		No											7	85	8	314	*
54		11	31		-	4	Out		No											3	85	11	151	*
53		11	32		-	3	Out		No											4	79	17	102	*
52		10	32		-	4	Out		No												84	16	37	*
51		9	32		-	5	Out		No												89	11	19	*
50		8	32		-	6	Out		No												59	41	17	*
49		8	33		-	5	Out		No												75	25	4	*
48		7	33		-	6	Out		No												25	75	4	*
28		0	46		-	0	Out		No													100	488

Total:							70.7	%	0.0	%	0	3	1	5	9	14	19	20	17	10	2	0	4,321,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.4
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	+0.0
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+0.0
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.0
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.6
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

120	46	0		-	0	100
106	38	6		-	2	60	40
105	36	5		-	5	57	29	14
104	36	6		-	4	16	79		5
103	35	6		-	5	26	68	6
102	35	7		-	4	16	63	14	5	2
101	35	8		-	3	6	57	17	18	2
100	34	8		-	4	5	58	15	18	3	1
99	33	8		-	5	2	54	16	23	3	2
98	33	9		-	4	1	43	15	31	7	3	1
97	32	9		-	5	0	33	13	41	6	5	1	0	0
96	32	10		-	4	0	24	10	49	7	8	2	0	0
95	31	10		-	5	0	17	7	52	7	13	4	1	0
94	31	11		-	4	0	11	4	53	5	18	6	2	0	0	0
93	30	11		-	5		7	3	52	4	21	9	5	1	0	0
92	29	11		-	6		3	2	46	2	23	11	9	3	0	0		0
91	29	12		-	5		2	1	41	1	21	11	16	6	1	0		0
90	28	12		-	6		1	0	34	0	19	10	23	10	2	1		0
89	28	13		-	5		0	0	26	0	14	8	28	15	4	3	0	0
88	27	13		-	6		0	0	19	0	10	5	31	18	9	7	0	0		0
87	27	14		-	5		0	0	14	0	6	3	29	20	15	12	0	1		0
86	26	14		-	6		0	0	9	0	3	1	24	18	22	19	1	3	0	0		0
85	26	15		-	5		0	0	6	0	1	0	17	14	26	26	3	7	0	0		0
84	25	15		-	6			0	3		1	0	10	9	26	31	6	12	0	1	0	0
83	25	16		-	5				2		0	0	6	5	23	31	11	20	0	3	0	0	0
82	24	16		-	6				1		0	0	3	2	17	27	15	29	1	6	0	0	0
81	24	17		-	5				0		0		1	1	11	19	17	35	3	12	0	1	0
80	23	17		-	6				0		0		0	0	6	12	17	38	5	19	0	2	0
79	23	18		-	5				0				0	0	3	6	14	35	8	28	0	5	0
78	22	18		-	6				0				0	0	1	3	10	28	11	35	1	10	0
77	22	19		-	5				0				0	0	0	1	6	20	12	40	2	16	1	0
76	21	19		-	6				0				0		0	0	3	12	12	41	4	25	3	0
75	21	20		-	5				0						0	0	1	6	10	36	7	34	6	0
74	20	20		-	6										0	0	1	3	7	29	9	42	10	0	0
73	20	21		-	5				0						0	0	0	1	4	21	9	47	16	0	0
72	19	21		-	6											0	0	0	2	13	9	49	25	1	0
71	19	22		-	5												0	0	1	7	8	47	34	3	0
70	18	22		-	6												0	0	0	3	6	41	43	6	0	0
69	18	23		-	5													0	0	1	4	33	50	11	1	0
68	17	23		-	6														0	1	2	24	53	18	2	0
67	17	24		-	5														0	0	1	16	52	26	4	0
66	16	24		-	6															0	1	11	47	34	7	0
65	16	25		-	5														0	0	0	6	40	41	12	1
64	15	25		-	6																0	3	31	46	19	1
63	15	26		-	5																0	2	22	46	27	3
62	14	26		-	6																0	1	15	45	35	4
61	14	27		-	5																	0	10	39	43	8	0
60	13	27		-	6																	0	5	32	50	13	0
59	13	28		-	5																	0	3	24	54	19	0
58	13	29		-	4																	0	2	20	53	24	0
57	12	29		-	5																		1	12	52	34	2
56	11	29		-	6																		0	10	45	43	2
55	11	30		-	5																		0	5	40	50	4
54	11	31		-	4																				32	62	7
53	11	32		-	3																			3	24	62	12
52	10	32		-	4																				16	73	11
51	9	32		-	5																				16	74	11
50	8	32		-	6																				6	59	35
49	8	33		-	5																					75	25
48	7	33		-	6																					25	75
28	0	46		-	0																						100

Total:						0	0	0	3	0	1	1	4	3	6	8	6	14	5	17	3	16	9	3	1	0	0