Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Prince George Cougars Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Red Deer 1-5, playoff odds down 9.4 to 22.3%

24 points 10 15-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-4.0		No		-0.1
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	-1.7
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	+0.2
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Prince George vs Vancouver	+5.6+3.5+3.0-2.4-2.5-5.6		+0.0NoNoNoNoNo		+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Saskatoon	-0.9-0.9-0.7*+0.2+0.3+1.7
Tri-City vs Victoria	-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.6
Kamloops vs Kelowna	-0.2-0.2+0.0-0.1-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Prince George finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

110		43	0		-	0	In		98.2	%	99	1	0										488
95		34	6		-	3	In		No			100											1
94		33	6		-	4	In		No					100									2
93		32	6		-	5	In		No			50		50									2
92		32	7		-	4	In		No						100								2
91		32	8		-	3	In		No			9	27	18	45								11	*
90		30	7		-	6	In		No					44	50	6							16	*
89		30	8		-	5	In		No			4	2	31	51	12							51	*
88		29	8		-	6	In		No				3	24	48	24	1						92	*
87		29	9		-	5	In		No			1		15	54	29	2						175	*
86		28	9		-	6	In		No				0	10	54	31	5						317	*
85		28	10		-	5	In		No			0	0	6	42	45	6						635	*
84		27	10		-	6	In		No			0		3	36	51	11	0					1,135	*
83		27	11		-	5	100.0	%	No					2	27	56	15	1	0				2,043	*
82		26	11		-	6	100.0		No					1	19	56	22	2	0				3,506	*
81		26	12		-	5	99.9		No					0	12	53	31	4	0				5,613	*
80		25	12		-	6	99.7		No					0	7	48	38	7	0				8,823	*
79		25	13		-	5	99.3		No					0	4	39	44	11	1				13,857	*
78		24	13		-	6	98.5		No					0	2	31	48	17	1				20,657	*
77		24	14		-	5	97.0		No						1	23	49	25	3				30,159	*
76		23	14		-	6	94.2		No						0	15	46	32	6				42,674	*
75		22	14		-	7	90.3		No						0	10	41	39	10	0			58,077	*
74		22	15		-	6	84.8		No						0	6	34	45	15	0			77,401	*
73		21	15		-	7	77.8		No						0	3	27	48	22	0			99,864	*
72		21	16		-	6	69.6		No						0	2	20	48	30	0			126,076	*
71		20	16		-	7	60.3		No						0	1	14	46	40	0			154,132	*
70		20	17		-	6	50.8		No							0	9	42	49	0			182,742	*
69		19	17		-	7	41.1		No							0	5	36	58	1			211,226	*
68		19	18		-	6	32.2		No							0	3	29	67	1			237,804	*
67		18	18		-	7	24.5		No							0	2	23	74	2			260,052	*
66		18	19		-	6	17.6		No							0	1	17	79	3			277,362	*
65		17	19		-	7	12.3		No							0	0	12	82	5			286,536	*
64		17	20		-	6	8.3		No								0	8	83	8			288,293	*
63		16	20		-	7	5.3		No								0	5	83	12			282,460	*
62		16	21		-	6	3.2		No							0	0	3	81	16			269,310	*
61		15	21		-	7	1.9		No								0	2	77	21			248,597	*
60		15	22		-	6	1.0		No								0	1	71	28			224,384	*
59		15	23		-	5	0.5		No								0	1	65	34			196,115	*
58		14	23		-	6	0.3		No									0	58	42			165,979	*
57		14	24		-	5	0.1		No									0	51	49			137,183	*
56		13	24		-	6	0.1		No									0	43	57			110,338	*
55		13	25		-	5	0.0		No									0	36	64			86,257	*
54		12	25		-	6	0.0		No									0	29	71			64,683	*
53		12	26		-	5	0.0		No									0	23	77			47,566	*
52		11	26		-	6	Out		No										17	83			34,079	*
51		11	27		-	5	Out		No										13	87			23,302	*
50		10	27		-	6	Out		No										9	91			15,731	*
49		10	28		-	5	Out		No										7	93			10,177	*
48		9	28		-	6	Out		No										5	95			6,383	*
47		9	29		-	5	Out		No										3	97			3,736	*
46		8	29		-	6	Out		No										2	98			2,202	*
45		8	30		-	5	Out		No										1	99			1,253	*
44		8	31		-	4	Out		No										1	99			697	*
43		7	31		-	5	Out		No										0	100			367	*
42		6	31		-	6	Out		No										1	99			197	*
24	-41						Out		No											100			652	*

Total:							22.3	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	16	61	17			4,321,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.3
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	+0.1
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Prince George vs Vancouver	-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.3

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

110		43	0		-	0	98	1	1		0
95		34	6		-	3			100
94		33	6		-	4							100
93		32	6		-	5			50				50
92		32	7		-	4									100
91		32	8		-	3				9	18	9	18		45
90		30	7		-	6							38	6	44	6	6
89		30	8		-	5				4		2	12	20	47	4	12
88		29	8		-	6						3	11	13	43	4	23	1	1
87		29	9		-	5				1			5	10	46	8	29		2
86		28	9		-	6						0	4	6	37	17	29	2	5
85		28	10		-	5				0		0	0	6	21	21	40	5	6
84		27	10		-	6				0			0	2	15	21	41	9	11		0
83		27	11		-	5							0	2	7	21	37	18	14	1	1		0
82		26	11		-	6								1	3	16	31	26	19	3	2	0	0
81		26	12		-	5								0	1	11	21	32	24	6	3	0	0
80		25	12		-	6								0	0	7	12	36	26	12	6	0	0
79		25	13		-	5								0	0	4	6	34	23	22	10	1	1
78		24	13		-	6								0		2	2	29	18	30	13	4	1	0
77		24	14		-	5									0	1	1	22	11	37	16	8	3	0	0
76		23	14		-	6										0	0	15	6	40	16	16	5	1	0
75		22	14		-	7										0	0	10	3	38	14	25	8	2	0
74		22	15		-	6										0	0	6	1	33	11	34	10	4	1	0
73		21	15		-	7										0	0	3	0	26	7	41	12	8	2	0
72		21	16		-	6										0	0	2	0	20	4	44	13	13	4	0
71		20	16		-	7										0		1	0	14	2	44	12	19	8	0	0
70		20	17		-	6												0	0	9	1	41	10	24	14	1	0
69		19	17		-	7												0		5	0	35	7	27	22	2	0
68		19	18		-	6												0		3	0	29	5	27	32	4	0
67		18	18		-	7												0		2	0	23	3	25	40	8	0
66		18	19		-	6												0		1	0	17	2	21	47	13	0
65		17	19		-	7												0		0	0	12	1	16	51	19	1
64		17	20		-	6														0		8	0	11	51	27	2	0
63		16	20		-	7														0		5	0	8	49	34	4	0
62		16	21		-	6												0		0		3	0	5	44	42	6	0
61		15	21		-	7														0		2	0	3	37	48	10	0
60		15	22		-	6														0		1	0	2	30	52	16	0
59		15	23		-	5														0		1	0	1	23	54	22	0
58		14	23		-	6																0		0	16	53	30	0
57		14	24		-	5																0		0	11	50	38	1
56		13	24		-	6																0		0	7	44	47	2
55		13	25		-	5																0		0	5	38	55	3
54		12	25		-	6																0		0	3	31	62	5
53		12	26		-	5																0		0	1	25	67	7
52		11	26		-	6																			1	18	71	10
51		11	27		-	5																			0	13	72	14
50		10	27		-	6																			0	8	72	19
49		10	28		-	5																			0	6	69	25
48		9	28		-	6																			0	4	65	32
47		9	29		-	5																				2	59	39
46		8	29		-	6																				1	53	46
45		8	30		-	5																				0	49	51
44		8	31		-	4																				0	43	57
43		7	31		-	5																				0	31	69
42		6	31		-	6																					34	66
41		6	32		-	5																					16	84
40		6	33		-	4																					14	86
39		5	33		-	5																					5	95
24	-38																											100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	1	15	3	11	28	24	11	1