Prince Albert Raiders Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Beat Lethbridge 8-2, playoff odds up 3.5 to 96.9%

32 points 15 9-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+1.0		+0.0		+0.2
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.3
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.2
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	+0.1
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)					-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Regina vs Prince Albert	-1.3-0.2-0.2+0.8+0.9+1.0		-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	+0.2-0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.3
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.2+0.0+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Swift Current vs Calgary	+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1				-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Prince Albert finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

110	-124						In		95.1	%	100												647	*
109		37	6		-	3	In		78.5		98	2											163	*
108		36	6		-	4	In		69.2		98	2											364	*
107		36	7		-	3	In		56.6		95	5	0										684	*
106		35	7		-	4	In		51.4		94	6	0										1,214	*
105		34	7		-	5	In		42.6		91	8	0										2,199	*
104		34	8		-	4	In		30.7		88	12	0										3,673	*
103		33	8		-	5	In		22.5		82	17	1										6,486	*
102		33	9		-	4	In		15.2		75	23	1	0									9,868	*
101		32	9		-	5	In		9.0		69	28	2	0									15,729	*
100		32	10		-	4	In		5.0		61	35	4	0									22,974	*
99		31	10		-	5	In		2.3		52	42	6	0									33,249	*
98		31	11		-	4	In		1.0		42	50	8	0	0								47,003	*
97		30	11		-	5	In		0.4		33	56	11	1	0								63,444	*
96		30	12		-	4	In		0.1		24	60	14	2	0								83,359	*
95		29	12		-	5	In		0.0		17	62	17	4	0								106,469	*
94		29	13		-	4	In		0.0		11	62	20	7	0	0							132,504	*
93		28	13		-	5	In		0.0		6	59	22	11	1	0							159,785	*
92		28	14		-	4	In		No		3	55	22	17	2	0							187,440	*
91		27	14		-	5	In		No		2	49	21	24	4	0	0						214,726	*
90		27	15		-	4	In		No		1	42	19	30	8	0	0						238,392	*
89		26	15		-	5	In		No		0	35	15	35	14	1	0						258,205	*
88		26	16		-	4	In		No		0	28	11	37	21	3	0	0					271,806	*
87		25	16		-	5	In		No		0	22	7	36	29	6	0	0					277,877	*
86		25	17		-	4	In		No		0	16	4	31	37	11	1	0					279,157	*
85		24	17		-	5	100.0	%	No		0	11	2	25	41	19	2	0	0				270,344	*
84		24	18		-	4	100.0		No		0	8	1	17	42	27	5	0	0				256,888	*
83		23	18		-	5	100.0		No			5	0	11	37	35	11	1	0				238,095	*
82		23	19		-	4	99.9		No			3	0	6	30	40	18	3	0				214,083	*
81		22	19		-	5	99.6		No			2	0	3	21	41	27	6	0	0			188,673	*
80		21	19		-	6	98.9		No			1	0	1	14	37	34	11	1	0			161,196	*
79		21	20		-	5	97.2		No			0	0	0	7	30	40	19	3	0			135,369	*
78		21	21		-	4	93.8		No			0		0	4	21	41	28	6	0			110,304	*
77		20	21		-	5	88.0		No			0		0	2	13	37	36	11	1	0		87,831	*
76		20	22		-	4	79.2		No			0		0	1	8	30	41	19	2	0		68,469	*
75		19	22		-	5	67.8		No			0			0	4	21	43	28	4	0		51,310	*
74		19	23		-	4	54.8		No					0	0	2	14	39	37	8	0		38,027	*
73		18	23		-	5	41.6		No						0	1	8	33	44	14	0		27,371	*
72		18	24		-	4	29.0		No							0	4	25	48	22	1		19,050	*
71		17	24		-	5	19.2		No							0	2	17	48	31	2		13,135	*
70		17	25		-	4	11.3		No							0	1	11	44	40	4		8,732	*
69		16	25		-	5	6.6		No								0	6	37	49	7		5,788	*
68		16	26		-	4	3.5		No								0	3	29	56	12		3,672	*
67		15	26		-	5	1.7		No								0	2	22	59	17		2,142	*
66		15	27		-	4	1.1		No									1	16	60	23		1,344	*
65		14	27		-	5	0.1		No									0	12	54	34		765	*
64		14	28		-	4	0.2		No									0	5	59	36		440	*
63		13	28		-	5	Out		No										4	50	46	0	243	*
62		13	29		-	4	Out		No										1	42	57		131	*
61		12	29		-	5	Out		No										3	28	70		76	*
60		11	29		-	6	Out		No											32	66	2	47	*
59		11	30		-	5	Out		No										5	37	58		19	*
58		11	31		-	4	Out		No											17	83		12	*
53	-57						Out		No												100		11	*
32		0	46		-	0	Out		No												1	99	488

Total:							96.9	%	0.3	%	4	24	8	17	18	13	8	5	2	1	0	0	4,321,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	-0.3
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	+0.1
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	-0.0
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.0
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Regina vs Prince Albert	+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Swift Current vs Calgary	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

113	-124						100
112		38	4		-	4	82	18
111		38	5		-	3	78	23
110		37	5		-	4	79	21
109		37	6		-	3	79	19	2
108		36	6		-	4	69	29	2
107		36	7		-	3	57	38	5	0	0
106		35	7		-	4	51	42	6	0	0
105		34	7		-	5	43	49	7	1	0
104		34	8		-	4	31	57	10	1	0
103		33	8		-	5	23	59	14	3	1	0
102		33	9		-	4	15	60	17	6	1	0	0
101		32	9		-	5	9	60	18	10	2	0	0
100		32	10		-	4	5	56	19	16	3	1	0
99		31	10		-	5	2	49	19	24	4	1	0	0
98		31	11		-	4	1	41	17	33	5	3	0	0	0
97		30	11		-	5	0	32	14	42	6	5	1	0	0
96		30	12		-	4	0	24	11	49	7	8	2	0	0
95		29	12		-	5	0	17	8	54	6	11	3	1	0	0
94		29	13		-	4	0	11	5	57	5	15	5	2	0	0	0
93		28	13		-	5	0	6	3	56	4	18	8	4	1	0	0
92		28	14		-	4		3	2	53	2	20	10	8	2	0	0
91		27	14		-	5		2	1	49	1	20	10	13	4	0	0		0
90		27	15		-	4		1	1	42	1	18	10	20	7	1	0	0	0
89		26	15		-	5		0	0	35	0	14	8	27	11	3	1	0	0
88		26	16		-	4		0	0	28	0	11	6	31	14	7	3	0	0		0
87		25	16		-	5		0	0	22	0	7	3	33	17	12	6	0	0		0
86		25	17		-	4		0	0	16	0	4	2	30	17	19	11	1	1		0
85		24	17		-	5		0	0	11	0	2	1	24	15	26	17	2	2	0	0		0
84		24	18		-	4		0	0	8		1	0	17	11	31	23	4	5	0	0		0
83		23	18		-	5			0	5		0	0	11	7	31	26	9	10	0	1		0
82		23	19		-	4				3		0	0	6	3	27	27	14	17	1	3	0	0
81		22	19		-	5				2		0	0	3	1	20	23	19	25	2	6	0	0	0
80		21	19		-	6				1		0	0	1	1	13	16	21	30	4	11	0	1	0
79		21	20		-	5				0		0		0	0	7	10	20	33	7	19	0	3	0
78		21	21		-	4				0				0	0	4	5	16	30	11	27	1	6	0
77		20	21		-	5				0				0	0	2	2	11	23	14	34	2	11	1	0
76		20	22		-	4				0				0	0	1	1	7	15	14	37	4	19	2	0
75		19	22		-	5				0						0	0	3	9	13	37	6	28	4	0
74		19	23		-	4								0		0	0	1	4	10	31	9	37	8	0	0
73		18	23		-	5										0		1	2	6	23	10	44	14	0
72		18	24		-	4											0	0	1	4	15	10	46	23	1	0
71		17	24		-	5												0	0	2	8	9	46	32	3	0
70		17	25		-	4												0	0	1	4	6	41	41	7	0
69		16	25		-	5													0	0	2	4	32	48	12	1	0
68		16	26		-	4														0	1	3	23	50	20	2	0
67		15	26		-	5														0	0	1	16	50	28	5
66		15	27		-	4															0	1	11	44	36	8	0
65		14	27		-	5																0	7	35	42	16	0
64		14	28		-	4																0	2	29	47	20	2
63		13	28		-	5																	2	21	47	28	3
62		13	29		-	4																		8	40	47	4
61		12	29		-	5																		11	36	43	11
60		11	29		-	6																		6	26	55	13
59		11	30		-	5																		11	32	42	16
58		11	31		-	4																			17	75	8
57		11	32		-	3																				50	50
56		9	31		-	6																				20	80
53	-55																										100
32		0	46		-	0																					1	99

Total:							0	4	2	22	1	7	3	13	7	11	9	5	7	2	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	0