Portland Winterhawks Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Seattle 4-5 (ot), playoff odds unchanged at 99.99%

39 points 18 5-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	*In		-1.9		-0.0
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1			-0.5
Calgary 0 Everett 1			-0.4
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)			*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Spokane vs Portland	-0.0InInInIn+0.0		-5.0-1.0-0.9+3.8+4.4+4.7		-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Kamloops vs Kelowna			+3.4+1.1+1.2-1.1-1.4-1.3
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer			-0.5-0.5-0.3+0.4+0.5+1.1
Lethbridge vs Edmonton			+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Portland finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

120	-131						In		Yes		100												1,851	*
119		39	5		-	2	In		99.9	%	100	0											1,469	*
118		38	5		-	3	In		99.6		100	0											2,675	*
117		38	6		-	2	In		99.3		99	1											4,790	*
116		37	6		-	3	In		99.0		99	1	0										8,352	*
115		36	6		-	4	In		98.2		98	2	0										13,549	*
114		36	7		-	3	In		97.1		97	3	0										20,921	*
113		35	7		-	4	In		95.8		96	4	0										31,554	*
112		35	8		-	3	In		93.6		94	6	0										45,528	*
111		34	8		-	4	In		90.9		92	8	0										63,222	*
110		34	9		-	3	In		87.3		89	11	0										85,574	*
109		33	9		-	4	In		82.9		85	15	1										111,357	*
108		33	10		-	3	In		77.2		80	19	1										138,499	*
107		32	10		-	4	In		70.4		74	24	2	0									168,858	*
106		32	11		-	3	In		62.5		68	29	3	0									198,087	*
105		31	11		-	4	In		53.7		61	35	5	0									226,204	*
104		31	12		-	3	In		44.3		53	40	8	0									250,683	*
103		30	12		-	4	In		34.8		44	44	11	0									270,381	*
102		30	13		-	3	In		25.8		36	47	16	0									283,046	*
101		29	13		-	4	In		17.7		28	49	22	1	0								287,832	*
100		29	14		-	3	In		11.3		20	49	29	2	0								285,113	*
99		28	14		-	4	In		6.4		14	46	36	3	0								274,139	*
98		28	15		-	3	In		3.3		9	41	43	6	0								256,290	*
97		27	15		-	4	In		1.4		6	35	49	10	0								234,323	*
96		26	15		-	5	In		0.6		3	29	52	16	1								208,710	*
95		26	16		-	4	In		0.2		2	22	52	23	1	0							180,675	*
94		25	16		-	5	In		0.1		1	16	49	32	3	0							152,376	*
93		25	17		-	4	In		0.0		0	10	44	40	5	0							125,514	*
92		24	17		-	5	In		0.0		0	6	37	48	9	0							101,417	*
91		24	18		-	4	In		No		0	4	29	53	14	0							79,089	*
90		23	18		-	5	In		No		0	2	21	55	22	1							60,749	*
89		23	19		-	4	In		No		0	1	14	53	31	2	0						45,163	*
88		22	19		-	5	In		No			0	9	48	39	4	0						32,905	*
87		22	20		-	4	In		No			0	5	41	47	7	0						23,353	*
86		21	20		-	5	In		No			0	3	32	53	12	0						16,235	*
85		21	21		-	4	In		No			0	1	24	55	18	1	0					11,087	*
84		20	21		-	5	In		No			0	1	17	53	26	3	0					7,425	*
83		20	22		-	4	In		No				0	11	48	35	5	0					4,687	*
82		20	23		-	3	In		No				0	7	42	41	9	1					3,020	*
81		19	23		-	4	In		No					3	33	47	15	1					1,734	*
80		19	24		-	3	In		No					2	25	49	22	2					1,086	*
79		18	24		-	4	In		No				0	0	16	49	30	4					641	*
78		17	24		-	5	In		No					1	7	43	41	8					389	*
77		17	25		-	4	In		No					1	5	39	41	15					195	*
76		17	26		-	3	99.1	%	No						2	30	50	18	1				107	*
75		16	26		-	4	97.8		No							24	37	37	2				46	*
74		16	27		-	3	93.2		No							16	41	36	7				44	*
73		15	27		-	4	87.0		No							9	39	39	13				23	*
72		14	27		-	5	88.9		No									89	11				9	*
71		14	28		-	4	66.7		No								33	33	33				3	*
67	-70						In		No									100					5	*
39		0	46		-	0	Out		No											100			488

Total:							100.0	%	28.1	%	33	31	23	10	3	0	0	0	0	0			4,321,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	+0.1
Calgary 0 Everett 1	+0.1
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Spokane vs Portland	+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
Kamloops vs Kelowna	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

120	-131						100
119		39	5		-	2	100	0	0
118		38	5		-	3	100	0	0
117		38	6		-	2	99	0	1
116		37	6		-	3	99	0	1		0
115		36	6		-	4	98	0	2		0
114		36	7		-	3	97	0	3		0
113		35	7		-	4	96	0	4		0
112		35	8		-	3	94	1	6		0
111		34	8		-	4	91	1	8		0
110		34	9		-	3	87	1	11		0
109		33	9		-	4	83	2	15		1
108		33	10		-	3	77	3	19		1
107		32	10		-	4	70	4	24	0	2	0	0
106		32	11		-	3	62	5	29	0	3	0	0
105		31	11		-	4	54	7	35	0	5	0	0
104		31	12		-	3	44	8	40	0	8	0	0
103		30	12		-	4	35	9	44	0	11	0	0
102		30	13		-	3	26	10	47	0	16	0	0
101		29	13		-	4	18	10	49	1	22	0	1		0
100		29	14		-	3	11	9	48	1	28	1	2		0
99		28	14		-	4	6	8	44	2	35	2	3	0	0
98		28	15		-	3	3	6	39	3	40	3	6	0	0
97		27	15		-	4	1	4	32	4	43	5	10	0	0
96		26	15		-	5	1	3	24	4	43	9	16	0	1
95		26	16		-	4	0	1	17	5	39	12	23	0	1		0
94		25	16		-	5	0	1	11	5	33	16	31	1	3	0	0
93		25	17		-	4	0	0	6	4	25	19	38	2	5	0	0
92		24	17		-	5	0	0	3	3	17	20	44	4	9	0	0
91		24	18		-	4		0	1	2	10	19	45	8	14	0	0
90		23	18		-	5		0	1	1	5	16	42	13	21	0	1
89		23	19		-	4		0	0	1	2	12	34	19	29	1	2	0	0
88		22	19		-	5			0	0	1	8	25	24	35	4	4	0	0
87		22	20		-	4			0	0	0	5	16	25	38	9	7	0	0
86		21	20		-	5				0	0	3	8	24	37	16	11	1	0
85		21	21		-	4				0	0	1	3	21	31	24	16	2	1	0	0
84		20	21		-	5				0		1	1	16	22	31	22	5	3	0	0
83		20	22		-	4						0	0	11	14	35	24	11	5	0	0
82		20	23		-	3						0	0	7	6	36	23	18	9	1	1	0
81		19	23		-	4								3	3	31	18	28	12	3	1
80		19	24		-	3								2	1	24	13	36	16	6	2	0
79		18	24		-	4						0		0	0	16	7	42	16	14	4	0
78		17	24		-	5								1		7	4	38	14	27	7	2
77		17	25		-	4								1		5	2	37	14	27	8	7
76		17	26		-	3										2		30	7	42	10	7	1
75		16	26		-	4												24	4	33	11	26	2
74		16	27		-	3												16	2	39	9	27	2	5
73		15	27		-	4												9		39	13	26	13
72		14	27		-	5																89	11
71		14	28		-	4														33		33			33
67	-70																					100
39		0	46		-	0																					17	83

Total:							28	5	29	1	19	4	8	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0