Moose Jaw Warriors Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Swift Current 4-5 (ot), playoff odds down 0.3 to 1.8%

21 points 8 16-5

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	-0.2		No
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	+0.7+0.5+0.4-0.3-0.3-0.8		+0.0NoNoNoNoNo		+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Moose Jaw finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

107		43	0		-	0	In		75.6	%	99	1											488
89		33	8		-	2	In		No		17			83									6	*
88		31	7		-	5	In		No			14	29	43	14								7	*
87		30	7		-	6	In		No			22		48	26	4							23	*
86		30	8		-	5	In		No			26	12	18	34	8	2						50	*
85		29	8		-	6	In		No			16		23	38	23	1						115	*
84		29	9		-	5	In		No			6	1	19	38	30	6						198	*
83		28	9		-	6	In		No			4		11	34	36	14	2					348	*
82		28	10		-	5	99.9	%	No			2	0	5	25	39	25	4	0				674	*
81		27	10		-	6	98.8		No			1		2	16	36	31	13	1	0			1,284	*
80		27	11		-	5	97.1		No			1		1	9	30	39	18	3				2,227	*
79		26	11		-	6	93.4		No			0		0	4	22	40	26	6	1			3,677	*
78		26	12		-	5	85.6		No			0		0	1	13	35	36	13	1			6,018	*
77		25	12		-	6	73.7		No			0			1	6	27	40	22	4	0		9,527	*
76		25	13		-	5	59.1		No						0	3	18	38	32	8	0		14,500	*
75		24	13		-	6	45.3		No						0	1	10	34	39	14	1		21,915	*
74		24	14		-	5	31.2		No						0	0	5	25	43	23	3		31,471	*
73		23	14		-	6	19.4		No							0	2	17	42	33	6		44,180	*
72		22	14		-	7	11.8		No							0	1	11	37	41	10		60,447	*
71		22	15		-	6	6.2		No							0	0	6	30	47	17		79,569	*
70		21	15		-	7	3.0		No								0	3	22	50	25		102,846	*
69		21	16		-	6	1.3		No								0	1	15	50	33		129,454	*
68		20	16		-	7	0.6		No								0	1	10	47	43	0	157,418	*
67		20	17		-	6	0.2		No								0	0	6	41	53	0	186,213	*
66		19	17		-	7	0.1		No									0	3	35	62	0	215,283	*
65		19	18		-	6	0.0		No									0	2	28	70	0	239,601	*
64		18	18		-	7	0.0		No									0	1	22	77	0	262,203	*
63		18	19		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	17	83	0	278,105	*
62		17	19		-	7	0.0		No									0	0	12	87	0	287,133	*
61		17	20		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	9	91	0	288,200	*
60		16	20		-	7	Out		No										0	6	93	1	280,852	*
59		16	21		-	6	Out		No										0	4	95	1	266,493	*
58		16	22		-	5	Out		No										0	3	96	2	245,876	*
57		15	22		-	6	Out		No										0	2	96	2	219,765	*
56		15	23		-	5	Out		No											1	95	4	193,377	*
55		14	23		-	6	Out		No											1	94	5	163,131	*
54		14	24		-	5	Out		No											0	92	7	134,458	*
53		13	24		-	6	Out		No											0	89	10	107,775	*
52		13	25		-	5	Out		No											0	86	14	83,241	*
51		12	25		-	6	Out		No											0	82	18	62,679	*
50		12	26		-	5	Out		No											0	77	23	46,389	*
49		11	26		-	6	Out		No											0	72	28	32,749	*
48		11	27		-	5	Out		No											0	66	34	22,239	*
47		10	27		-	6	Out		No											0	59	41	15,015	*
46		10	28		-	5	Out		No												51	49	9,632	*
45		9	28		-	6	Out		No												45	55	5,945	*
44		9	29		-	5	Out		No												38	62	3,616	*
43		8	29		-	6	Out		No												32	68	2,093	*
42		8	30		-	5	Out		No												25	75	1,195	*
41		8	31		-	4	Out		No												20	80	642	*
40		7	31		-	5	Out		No												14	86	335	*
39		6	31		-	6	Out		No												11	89	178	*
38		6	32		-	5	Out		No												10	90	67	*
37		6	33		-	4	Out		No												6	94	36	*
21	-36						Out		No													100	514	*

Total:							1.8	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	16	75	3	4,321,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

107		43	0		-	0	76	23	1
89		33	8		-	2		17					33	50
88		31	7		-	5				14		29	29	14	14
87		30	7		-	6				22			9	39	13	13	4
86		30	8		-	5				26		12	2	16	22	12	8		2
85		29	8		-	6				16			1	22	16	23	22	1	1
84		29	9		-	5				6		1	1	19	10	29	26	4	6
83		28	9		-	6				4				11	7	27	28	8	13	0	2
82		28	10		-	5				2		0		5	3	22	27	12	24	1	4		0
81		27	10		-	6				1				2	2	14	21	15	30	1	13		1	0
80		27	11		-	5				1				1	0	9	14	16	36	4	17	0	3
79		26	11		-	6				0				0	0	4	8	14	33	7	26	1	6	1
78		26	12		-	5				0				0		1	3	10	26	9	35	1	13	1
77		25	12		-	6				0						1	1	5	17	10	38	2	22	4	0
76		25	13		-	5										0	0	2	10	8	35	3	32	8	0
75		24	13		-	6										0	0	1	4	6	29	5	39	14	1	0
74		24	14		-	5										0	0	0	2	4	20	5	42	24	3	0
73		23	14		-	6												0	0	2	12	5	42	33	6	0
72		22	14		-	7												0	0	1	6	4	36	41	11	0
71		22	15		-	6												0	0	0	3	3	28	47	18	1	0
70		21	15		-	7													0	0	1	2	20	48	27	2	0
69		21	16		-	6														0	0	1	13	46	36	4	0
68		20	16		-	7														0	0	0	8	40	44	7	0
67		20	17		-	6														0	0	0	4	32	51	12	0
66		19	17		-	7															0	0	2	24	54	19	1
65		19	18		-	6															0	0	1	17	53	28	1
64		18	18		-	7																0	0	11	49	37	2	0
63		18	19		-	6																0	0	7	43	46	4	0
62		17	19		-	7																0	0	4	36	53	7	0
61		17	20		-	6																0	0	2	28	59	11	0
60		16	20		-	7																	0	1	21	61	17	0
59		16	21		-	6																	0	0	15	62	23	0
58		16	22		-	5																	0	0	10	60	30	0
57		15	22		-	6																		0	6	55	37	1
56		15	23		-	5																		0	4	50	45	2
55		14	23		-	6																		0	2	43	52	3
54		14	24		-	5																		0	1	36	59	4
53		13	24		-	6																		0	1	29	64	7
52		13	25		-	5																			0	22	67	10
51		12	25		-	6																			0	17	69	14
50		12	26		-	5																			0	13	68	19
49		11	26		-	6																			0	8	67	25
48		11	27		-	5																			0	6	63	31
47		10	27		-	6																				4	58	38
46		10	28		-	5																				2	51	46
45		9	28		-	6																				2	46	53
44		9	29		-	5																				1	38	61
43		8	29		-	6																				0	33	67
42		8	30		-	5																				0	26	74
41		8	31		-	4																				0	20	79
40		7	31		-	5																					15	85
39		6	31		-	6																					11	89
38		6	32		-	5																					13	87
37		6	33		-	4																					6	94
21	-36																											100

Total:							0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	11	25	37	20	2