Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Medicine Hat Tigers Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Beat Regina 5-1, playoff odds up 0.05 to 99.96%

37 points 17 6-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.0		+1.1		+0.1
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)			+0.5
Calgary 0 Everett 1			-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1		+1.6+1.4+1.2-1.3-1.4-3.5		+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Kamloops vs Kelowna			+1.5+0.4+0.6-0.4-0.6-0.6
Spokane vs Portland			+0.7+0.0-0.1-0.7-0.8-0.6
Lethbridge vs Edmonton					+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Medicine Hat finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

115	-129						In		98.2	%	100												5,368	*
114		37	6		-	3	In		96.3		100	0											4,257	*
113		36	6		-	4	In		94.0		100	0											7,372	*
112		36	7		-	3	In		91.4		100	0											11,786	*
111		35	7		-	4	In		87.5		100	0	0										18,503	*
110		35	8		-	3	In		82.8		100	0	0										28,153	*
109		34	8		-	4	In		76.7		100	0	0										41,082	*
108		34	9		-	3	In		69.5		100	0	0										57,179	*
107		33	9		-	4	In		61.0		100	0	0										77,336	*
106		33	10		-	3	In		51.8		99	0	1										101,106	*
105		32	10		-	4	In		42.5		98	1	1										128,553	*
104		32	11		-	3	In		33.1		97	1	2										156,906	*
103		31	11		-	4	In		24.3		95	2	3	0									187,221	*
102		31	12		-	3	In		16.7		93	3	5	0									216,183	*
101		30	12		-	4	In		10.5		89	4	7	0									242,517	*
100		29	12		-	5	In		6.1		84	6	10	0									262,649	*
99		29	13		-	4	In		3.2		77	9	14	0									278,258	*
98		28	13		-	5	In		1.4		70	12	19	0									285,050	*
97		28	14		-	4	In		0.6		60	15	24	1	0								285,774	*
96		27	14		-	5	In		0.2		50	18	31	1	0								278,393	*
95		27	15		-	4	In		0.1		40	20	37	3	0								262,445	*
94		26	15		-	5	In		0.0		30	22	44	5	0	0							241,997	*
93		26	16		-	4	In		0.0		20	22	49	8	0	0							217,922	*
92		25	16		-	5	In		No		13	21	51	14	1	0	0						191,431	*
91		25	17		-	4	In		No		8	18	51	21	2	0	0						163,526	*
90		24	17		-	5	In		No		4	14	47	29	5	0	0						136,329	*
89		24	18		-	4	In		No		2	11	40	37	10	1	0						110,505	*
88		23	18		-	5	In		No		1	7	31	42	16	2	0	0					87,275	*
87		23	19		-	4	In		No		0	4	22	43	25	5	0	0					67,126	*
86		22	19		-	5	100.0	%	No		0	2	14	39	34	10	1	0	0				50,723	*
85		22	20		-	4	100.0		No		0	1	7	32	39	18	3	0	0				37,237	*
84		21	20		-	5	100.0		No			1	4	22	41	26	6	1	0				26,798	*
83		21	21		-	4	100.0		No			0	1	13	36	35	12	1	0				18,746	*
82		20	21		-	5	99.8		No			0	0	7	28	39	21	4	0				12,781	*
81		20	22		-	4	99.5		No			0	0	3	19	40	29	8	0	0			8,402	*
80		19	22		-	5	98.5		No				0	1	11	35	38	14	2				5,502	*
79		19	23		-	4	96.3		No					0	6	25	40	25	4	0			3,377	*
78		18	23		-	5	91.7		No					0	3	16	39	32	8	0			2,196	*
77		18	24		-	4	82.3		No						1	11	33	38	16	1			1,272	*
76		17	24		-	5	74.9		No						0	5	23	46	23	2			801	*
75		17	25		-	4	64.2		No							2	13	49	31	4			413	*
74		16	25		-	5	51.5		No							0	10	41	42	6			237	*
73		16	26		-	4	42.0		No								6	36	43	14	1		138	*
72		15	26		-	5	23.5		No									23	51	25	1		81	*
71		15	27		-	4	21.2		No									21	55	21	3		33	*
70		14	27		-	5	14.3		No									14	57	29			21	*
69		14	28		-	4	14.3		No									14	43	43			14	*
68		14	29		-	3	Out		No										43	57			7	*
67		13	29		-	4	Out		No										50	50			2	*
66		12	29		-	5	Out		No											100			1
37		0	46		-	0	Out		No												1	99	488

Total:							100.0	%	11.2	%	56	10	22	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4,321,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	-0.2
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

119	-129						100
118		39	4		-	3	99	1
117		39	5		-	2	99	1
116		38	5		-	3	98	2
115		38	6		-	2	97	3
114		37	6		-	3	96	4	0
113		36	6		-	4	94	6	0
112		36	7		-	3	91	9	0
111		35	7		-	4	88	12	0		0
110		35	8		-	3	83	17	0		0
109		34	8		-	4	77	23	0		0	0
108		34	9		-	3	70	30	0		0
107		33	9		-	4	61	39	0	0	0	0
106		33	10		-	3	52	47	0	0	1	0
105		32	10		-	4	42	56	1	0	1	0
104		32	11		-	3	33	64	1	0	2	0
103		31	11		-	4	24	71	1	0	3	0	0
102		31	12		-	3	17	76	2	1	4	0	0
101		30	12		-	4	11	79	3	2	6	1	0
100		29	12		-	5	6	78	3	3	8	2	0
99		29	13		-	4	3	74	4	5	10	3	0	0
98		28	13		-	5	1	68	4	8	12	6	0	0
97		28	14		-	4	1	60	3	11	13	11	1	0	0
96		27	14		-	5	0	50	3	15	14	17	1	0	0
95		27	15		-	4	0	40	2	18	12	25	2	0	0
94		26	15		-	5	0	30	2	20	10	33	4	1	0	0	0
93		26	16		-	4	0	20	1	21	8	41	6	3	0	0	0
92		25	16		-	5		13	1	20	5	46	8	6	1	0	0		0
91		25	17		-	4		8	0	18	3	48	9	12	2	0	0		0
90		24	17		-	5		4	0	14	1	46	10	20	4	1	0		0
89		24	18		-	4		2	0	11	1	40	9	29	7	2	1	0	0
88		23	18		-	5		1	0	7	0	31	7	36	11	5	2	0	0		0
87		23	19		-	4		0	0	4	0	22	4	39	14	11	5	0	0		0
86		22	19		-	5		0	0	2	0	14	2	37	15	18	9	1	1		0		0
85		22	20		-	4		0		1	0	7	1	31	13	26	16	2	3	0	0		0
84		21	20		-	5				1		4	0	21	10	31	22	4	6	0	1		0
83		21	21		-	4				0		1	0	13	6	30	26	9	12	0	1		0
82		20	21		-	5				0		0	0	7	3	25	26	14	21	1	4		0
81		20	22		-	4				0		0		3	1	18	22	18	27	2	8	0	0	0
80		19	22		-	5						0		1	0	10	16	19	34	4	14	0	2
79		19	23		-	4								0	0	5	8	17	33	8	24	1	4	0
78		18	23		-	5								0	0	3	4	12	28	11	31	1	8	0
77		18	24		-	4										1	2	9	20	13	35	2	16	1
76		17	24		-	5										0	0	5	12	11	41	5	23	2
75		17	25		-	4												2	7	6	41	8	31	5
74		16	25		-	5												0	2	8	32	10	42	6
73		16	26		-	4													1	5	23	13	43	14	1
72		15	26		-	5															16	7	48	27	1
71		15	27		-	4															12	9	52	21	6
70		15	28		-	3															5	10	52	29	5
69		14	28		-	4															14		43	43
68		14	29		-	3																	43	29	29
67		13	29		-	4																	50	50
66		12	29		-	5																		100
37		0	46		-	0																					1	99

Total:							11	45	2	9	7	16	2	5	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0