Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Calgary Hitmen Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Everett 0-1, playoff odds down 1.8 to 94.5%

30 points 13 7-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-1.2		-0.2		-0.3
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.1
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	+0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Swift Current vs Calgary	-1.3+0.2+0.2+1.5+1.6+1.6		-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	+0.4+0.0+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.3-0.0-0.0-0.4-0.3-0.4
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.2-0.3-0.1+0.0-0.1+0.3
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.3
Lethbridge vs Edmonton					+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

111	-126						In		99.1	%	100												537	*
110		38	6		-	4	In		78.8		98		2										52	*
109		38	7		-	3	In		69.6		100												92	*
108		37	7		-	4	In		70.3		98		2										236	*
107		36	7		-	5	In		61.0		97	0	3										439	*
106		36	8		-	4	In		49.8		97		3										813	*
105		35	8		-	5	In		40.1		94	0	6										1,353	*
104		35	9		-	4	In		30.4		89	1	10	0									2,358	*
103		34	9		-	5	In		21.5		85	1	14	0									4,039	*
102		34	10		-	4	In		13.4		79	2	18	0									6,559	*
101		33	10		-	5	In		8.5		72	3	24	1									10,428	*
100		33	11		-	4	In		4.3		62	4	32	2									15,409	*
99		32	11		-	5	In		2.1		53	6	38	3									22,965	*
98		32	12		-	4	In		0.8		43	7	45	5	0								32,509	*
97		31	12		-	5	In		0.3		33	8	51	8	0								45,226	*
96		30	12		-	6	In		0.1		24	8	55	12	0	0							60,525	*
95		30	13		-	5	In		0.0		17	8	57	18	0								79,342	*
94		29	13		-	6	In		0.0		10	8	56	25	1	0							101,245	*
93		29	14		-	5	In		0.0		6	6	52	33	2	0							124,967	*
92		28	14		-	6	In		No		3	5	46	42	4	0							150,810	*
91		28	15		-	5	In		No		1	4	38	49	8	0	0						178,562	*
90		27	15		-	6	In		No		1	2	30	53	13	1	0	0					203,005	*
89		27	16		-	5	In		No		0	1	21	55	21	2	0						226,560	*
88		26	16		-	6	In		No		0	1	14	51	29	4	0	0					246,607	*
87		26	17		-	5	In		No		0	0	8	44	38	9	1	0					260,828	*
86		25	17		-	6	In		No		0	0	4	35	44	15	1	0					270,029	*
85		25	18		-	5	100.0	%	No		0	0	2	25	46	23	4	0	0				272,197	*
84		24	18		-	6	100.0		No			0	1	16	43	32	8	1	0				267,077	*
83		24	19		-	5	100.0		No			0	0	9	36	39	14	1	0				256,119	*
82		23	19		-	6	99.8		No			0	0	5	27	43	22	4	0				239,798	*
81		23	20		-	5	99.4		No				0	2	18	41	31	8	1	0			220,629	*
80		22	20		-	6	98.5		No				0	1	10	35	38	14	1	0			196,301	*
79		22	21		-	5	96.3		No				0	0	5	27	42	22	4	0			171,343	*
78		21	21		-	6	92.2		No					0	2	18	40	31	7	0			145,384	*
77		21	22		-	5	85.7		No				0	0	1	11	35	39	13	1	0		120,193	*
76		20	22		-	6	76.5		No					0	0	6	27	43	21	2	0		98,291	*
75		20	23		-	5	64.9		No					0	0	3	19	43	31	5	0		77,399	*
74		19	23		-	6	51.8		No						0	1	12	39	40	9	0		60,090	*
73		19	24		-	5	38.9		No						0	0	7	32	46	14	0		44,903	*
72		18	24		-	6	27.5		No						0	0	3	24	49	22	1		33,240	*
71		18	25		-	5	18.0		No							0	1	16	49	31	2		24,026	*
70		17	25		-	6	11.1		No							0	1	10	45	40	3		16,690	*
69		17	26		-	5	6.1		No							0	0	6	39	49	6		11,465	*
68		16	26		-	6	3.2		No								0	3	32	55	9		7,570	*
67		16	27		-	5	1.5		No									2	23	61	15		4,897	*
66		15	27		-	6	0.8		No									1	17	60	22		3,190	*
65		15	28		-	5	0.2		No									0	12	60	28		1,945	*
64		14	28		-	6	0.2		No									0	9	55	36	0	1,161	*
63		14	29		-	5	Out		No										6	50	44		729	*
62		13	29		-	6	Out		No										3	48	48	1	397	*
61		13	30		-	5	Out		No										2	39	59		204	*
60		13	31		-	4	Out		No											36	63	1	123	*
59		12	31		-	5	Out		No											33	67		60	*
58		11	31		-	6	Out		No											22	78		36	*
57		11	32		-	5	Out		No											21	79		14	*
56		10	32		-	6	Out		No											20	80		10	*
55		10	33		-	5	Out		No												75	25	4	*
52	-54						Out		No												100		4	*
30		0	48		-	0	Out		No													100	488

Total:							94.5	%	0.2	%	3	1	13	22	20	16	11	7	4	1	0	0	4,321,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary 0 Everett 1	+0.5
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Swift Current vs Calgary	+0.4-0.0-0.0-0.5-0.5-0.6
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

112	-126						100
111		38	5		-	5	83	17
110		38	6		-	4	79	19			2
109		38	7		-	3	70	30
108		37	7		-	4	70	28			2
107		36	7		-	5	61	36	0		3
106		36	8		-	4	50	47			3
105		35	8		-	5	40	54	0	0	6	0
104		35	9		-	4	30	59	1	0	10	0	0
103		34	9		-	5	21	63	1	0	13	1	0
102		34	10		-	4	13	66	2	1	17	1	0
101		33	10		-	5	9	63	2	1	21	3	1
100		33	11		-	4	4	58	2	2	26	6	2	0
99		32	11		-	5	2	51	2	3	29	10	3	0
98		32	12		-	4	1	42	2	5	29	16	5	0	0
97		31	12		-	5	0	33	2	6	27	24	7	0	0
96		30	12		-	6	0	24	1	7	23	32	11	1	0	0	0
95		30	13		-	5	0	17	1	8	18	39	15	3	0	0
94		29	13		-	6	0	10	1	7	12	44	19	7	1	0	0
93		29	14		-	5	0	6	0	6	8	45	21	12	2	0	0
92		28	14		-	6		3	0	5	4	42	22	20	4	0	0
91		28	15		-	5		1	0	4	2	36	20	28	7	1	0		0
90		27	15		-	6		1	0	2	1	29	16	37	11	2	1	0	0		0
89		27	16		-	5		0	0	1	0	21	12	43	16	5	2	0	0
88		26	16		-	6		0	0	1	0	14	7	44	20	10	4	0	0		0
87		26	17		-	5		0	0	0	0	8	4	41	21	17	8	0	1		0
86		25	17		-	6		0		0	0	4	2	34	20	24	14	1	1	0	0
85		25	18		-	5		0		0	0	2	1	24	15	30	21	3	4	0	0		0
84		24	18		-	6				0		1	0	16	10	32	27	6	7	0	1		0
83		24	19		-	5				0		0	0	9	6	30	29	11	13	0	1	0	0
82		23	19		-	6				0		0	0	5	3	24	27	16	21	1	4	0	0
81		23	20		-	5						0	0	2	1	17	21	20	28	2	8	0	1	0
80		22	20		-	6						0		1	0	10	14	21	33	5	14	0	1	0
79		22	21		-	5						0		0	0	5	8	19	33	9	22	0	4	0
78		21	21		-	6								0	0	2	4	14	28	12	30	1	7	0
77		21	22		-	5						0		0	0	1	1	9	21	14	36	3	13	1	0
76		20	22		-	6								0	0	0	1	5	13	14	38	5	21	2	0
75		20	23		-	5								0		0	0	3	7	12	36	7	30	5	0
74		19	23		-	6										0	0	1	3	9	29	10	39	9	0
73		19	24		-	5										0	0	0	1	6	21	11	46	15	0	0
72		18	24		-	6										0		0	0	3	13	11	48	23	1	0
71		18	25		-	5												0	0	1	7	9	46	32	3	0
70		17	25		-	6												0	0	1	3	7	41	41	6	0
69		17	26		-	5												0		0	1	4	33	48	12	1
68		16	26		-	6													0	0	1	3	26	51	18	2	0
67		16	27		-	5															0	1	17	51	26	5	0
66		15	27		-	6															0	1	11	45	35	8	0
65		15	28		-	5															0	0	7	38	41	13	1
64		14	28		-	6																0	4	28	47	20	1
63		14	29		-	5																	2	21	46	28	3
62		13	29		-	6																	1	17	45	34	4
61		13	30		-	5																		8	41	41	9
60		13	31		-	4																		6	23	54	17
59		12	31		-	5																		8	32	37	23
58		11	31		-	6																		3	19	58	19
57		11	32		-	5																			21	43	36
56		10	32		-	6																				70	30
55		10	33		-	5																				75	25
52	-54																										100
30		0	48		-	0																						100

Total:							0	3	0	1	2	11	5	17	8	12	10	6	9	2	7	1	4	1	0	0	0	0