Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Lost to Miami 3-4 (ot), playoff odds up 2.9 to 92.1%

64 points 28 26-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Austin 3 Boston 2	+3.1
New York 4 Los Angeles 3 (so)	-0.2
Philadelphia 3 Miami 4 (ot)			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Boston vs Montreal	-2.0-1.9-2.0+0.5+0.5+2.4
Tampa vs Toronto	-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Washington vs New York	+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

104	20	0		-	0	In		No			10	67	24								219
103	19	0		-	1	In		No				46	54								13
102	19	1		-	0	In		No			6	37	58								52	*
101	18	1		-	1	In		No			1	36	57	6							181	*
100	17	1		-	2	In		No			0	22	69	8	1						585	*
99	17	2		-	1	In		No				14	69	16	1						1,430	*
98	16	2		-	2	In		No			0	8	67	23	2	0					3,385	*
97	16	3		-	1	In		No				4	57	34	5	0					6,989	*
96	15	3		-	2	In		No				2	46	42	10	0					13,837	*
95	15	4		-	1	In		No			0	1	33	47	18	1					24,110	*
94	14	4		-	2	In		No				0	21	48	28	3					39,674	*
93	14	5		-	1	In		No				0	12	42	38	7					60,200	*
92	13	5		-	2	100.0	%	No				0	6	33	47	13	0				48,312
	12	4		-	4	100.0		No				0	6	34	46	14	0				37,542	*
91	12	5		-	3	100.0		No					3	22	51	24	0				63,836	*
	13	6		-	1	100.0		No				0	3	25	50	22	0				49,767
90	12	6		-	2	99.9		No					1	14	49	35	0				78,381
	11	5		-	4	100.0		No					1	15	49	35	0				64,985	*
89	11	6		-	3	99.8		No					0	7	43	49	0				77,090
	12	7		-	1	99.8		No					0	8	44	47	0				91,655	*
88	11	7		-	2	99.6		No					0	4	35	60	0				102,639
	10	6		-	4	99.5		No					0	4	35	61	0				87,220	*
87	10	7		-	3	98.8		No					0	1	25	72	1	0			91,556
	11	8		-	1	98.9		No					0	2	26	71	1				107,024	*
86	10	8		-	2	97.7		No					0	1	18	80	2				106,158
	9	7		-	4	97.7		No					0	1	17	80	2				92,935	*
85	9	8		-	3	95.6		No					0	0	10	85	4				86,344
	10	9		-	1	95.7		No						0	11	85	4				100,190	*
84	9	9		-	2	92.5		No						0	6	86	7	0			89,541
	8	8		-	4	92.6		No						0	6	86	7				78,258	*
83	8	9		-	3	88.2		No						0	3	85	12	0			64,935
	9	10		-	1	88.1		No						0	3	85	12	0			75,810	*
82	8	10		-	2	82.2		No						0	2	81	18	0			114,094	*
81	7	10		-	3	75.0		No							1	74	25	0			39,917
	8	11		-	1	75.0		No							1	74	25	0			46,486	*
80	7	11		-	2	66.4		No							0	66	33	0	0		61,672	*
79	6	11		-	3	56.5		No							0	56	42	1			41,690	*
78	6	12		-	2	45.7		No							0	46	52	3	0		27,078	*
77	6	13		-	1	35.9		No								36	58	6	0		16,106	*
76	5	13		-	2	25.4		No								25	64	11	0		9,081	*
75	5	14		-	1	17.8		No								18	63	18	1		4,877	*
74	4	14		-	2	11.6		No								12	60	26	2		2,479	*
73	4	15		-	1	6.1		No								6	52	38	4		1,142	*
72	3	15		-	2	5.3		No								5	38	46	11		491	*
71	3	16		-	1	1.1		No								1	31	51	16	1	177	*
70	2	16		-	2	Out		No									21	58	21		77	*
69	2	17		-	1	Out		No									7	67	27		15	*
68	1	17		-	2	Out		No										70	30		10	*
67	1	18		-	1	Out		No										100			1
64	0	20		-	0	Out		No									0	9	54	37	218

Total:						92.1	%	No			0	0	2	8	22	59	8	0	0	0	2,110,464

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia 3 Miami 4 (ot)	+0.1
Austin 3 Boston 2	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa vs Toronto	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

104	20	0		-	0			2	14	35	34	12	3
103	19	0		-	1				8	23	38	23	8
102	19	1		-	0				2	13	38	31	13	2
101	18	1		-	1					5	23	45	20	7
100	17	1		-	2					2	11	36	38	11	2
99	17	2		-	1					0	3	22	42	27	5	0
98	16	2		-	2					0	2	13	34	36	13	3	0
97	16	3		-	1					0	0	5	23	38	24	8	1	0
96	15	3		-	2						0	1	12	32	34	16	4	0	0
95	15	4		-	1						0	0	4	20	34	27	12	2	0	0
94	14	4		-	2							0	1	9	25	34	22	8	1	0	0
93	14	5		-	1							0	0	3	13	29	32	18	5	1	0
92	13	5		-	2								0	1	5	18	32	29	13	2	0	0
91	12	5		-	3								0	0	1	8	23	33	25	8	1	0
	13	6		-	1								0	0	1	8	24	34	24	8	1	0
90	12	6		-	2									0	0	3	12	29	34	18	3	0
	11	5		-	4									0	0	3	12	29	34	18	3	0
89	11	6		-	3										0	1	4	18	35	31	10	0
	12	7		-	1										0	1	5	19	36	30	9	0	0
88	11	7		-	2										0	0	1	9	29	40	20	0	0
	10	6		-	4										0	0	1	9	29	40	20	0	0
87	10	7		-	3											0	0	3	18	42	36	1	0
	11	8		-	1											0	0	4	19	42	34	1	0
86	10	8		-	2												0	1	10	37	50	2	0	0
	9	7		-	4												0	1	8	36	53	2	0
85	9	8		-	3												0	0	4	26	66	4	1	0
	10	9		-	1												0	0	4	27	65	4	1	0
84	9	9		-	2													0	1	16	75	6	2	0
	8	8		-	4													0	1	16	75	6	1	0
83	8	9		-	3													0	0	8	80	8	4	0	0
	9	10		-	1													0	0	9	79	8	4	0
82	8	10		-	2													0	0	4	78	9	7	1
	7	9		-	4														0	4	78	10	7	1
81	7	10		-	3														0	2	73	10	12	2	0
	8	11		-	1														0	2	73	10	12	2	0
80	7	11		-	2														0	1	66	10	18	6	0
79	6	11		-	3															0	56	8	23	11	0
78	6	12		-	2															0	46	6	27	20	1	0
77	6	13		-	1																36	4	27	30	3	0
76	5	13		-	2																25	2	24	40	8	0	0
75	5	14		-	1																18	1	19	46	15	1	0
74	4	14		-	2																12	0	12	49	24	3	0
73	4	15		-	1																6	0	6	41	38	8	1
72	3	15		-	2																5		3	30	45	15	1
71	3	16		-	1																1		2	23	44	27	5
70	2	16		-	2																			14	44	34	8
69	2	17		-	1																				60	27	13
68	1	17		-	2																				10	80	10
67	1	18		-	1																				100
64	0	20		-	0																				1	14	53	32

Total:								0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	13	20	39	3	3	1	0	0	0	0