Boston Bruins Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Lost to Austin 2-3, playoff odds down 4.2 to 9.5%

54 points 26 33-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Austin 3 Boston 2	-4.3		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Boston vs Montreal	+2.7+2.6+2.7-0.9-0.8-3.3		+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Tampa vs Toronto	-0.4-0.5-0.4+0.1-0.1+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Boston finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

96	21	0		-	0	In		No				3	65	29	3						218
95	20	0		-	1	In		No					20	40	40						5
94	19	0		-	2	In		No					47	31	22						32	*
93	19	1		-	1	In		No					20	53	25	1					88	*
92	18	1		-	2	99.4	%	No				0	15	39	38	6	1				337	*
91	18	2		-	1	98.6		No				0	7	32	42	17	1				877	*
90	17	2		-	2	96.3		No					2	22	44	28	4				2,073	*
89	17	3		-	1	92.9		No					1	11	43	39	7				4,530	*
88	16	3		-	2	85.9		No					0	6	33	47	14				9,040	*
87	16	4		-	1	76.2		No					0	2	22	52	24				16,375	*
86	15	4		-	2	65.1		No					0	1	14	50	35	0			28,120	*
85	15	5		-	1	52.0		No					0	0	7	45	48	0			43,395	*
84	14	5		-	2	39.8		No						0	4	36	60	0			64,964	*
83	13	5		-	3	29.0		No						0	2	27	71	0			89,990	*
82	13	6		-	2	20.6		No						0	1	20	79	0			63,257
	12	5		-	4	20.2		No							0	20	80	0			54,635	*
81	12	6		-	3	13.5		No							0	13	86	0			67,001
	13	7		-	1	13.7		No							0	14	86	0			77,691	*
80	12	7		-	2	8.8		No							0	9	91	1			119,959	*
	11	6		-	4	8.3		No							0	8	91	1	0		48,911
79	11	7		-	3	5.1		No							0	5	93	2	0		87,542
	12	8		-	1	5.2		No							0	5	93	2	0		98,954	*
78	11	8		-	2	3.1		No							0	3	94	3	0		101,083
	10	7		-	4	3.0		No							0	3	93	4	0		94,210	*
77	10	8		-	3	1.6		No								2	92	7	0		122,649	*
	11	9		-	1	1.6		No							0	2	94	5	0		70,114
76	10	9		-	2	0.9		No							0	1	90	9	0		93,661
	9	8		-	4	0.8		No							0	1	88	11	0		88,246	*
75	9	9		-	3	0.3		No								0	83	16	1		76,270
	10	10		-	1	0.4		No								0	84	16	0		85,512	*
74	9	10		-	2	0.2		No								0	77	22	1		96,182	*
	8	9		-	4	0.2		No							0	0	72	26	2		42,115
73	8	10		-	3	0.1		No								0	65	32	3	0	52,004
	9	11		-	1	0.1		No								0	65	32	3	0	58,625	*
72	8	11		-	2	0.0		No								0	53	40	6	0	84,909	*
71	7	11		-	3	0.0		No								0	41	47	12	0	60,901	*
70	7	12		-	2	0.0		No								0	30	51	19	0	41,916	*
69	6	12		-	3	Out		No									20	51	29	0	27,057	*
68	6	13		-	2	Out		No									12	47	40	1	16,732	*
67	5	13		-	3	Out		No									7	39	52	2	9,713	*
66	5	14		-	2	Out		No									3	30	62	5	5,314	*
65	4	14		-	3	Out		No									1	20	70	8	2,736	*
64	4	15		-	2	Out		No									0	14	71	15	1,353	*
63	4	16		-	1	Out		No									1	11	69	19	542	*
62	3	16		-	2	Out		No										2	71	27	267	*
61	3	17		-	1	Out		No										3	60	37	94	*
60	2	17		-	2	Out		No											48	52	27	*
59	2	18		-	1	Out		No											44	56	18	*
58	1	18		-	2	Out		No											50	50	2
54	0	21		-	0	Out		No											10	90	218

Total:						9.5	%	No				0	0	0	1	8	76	12	3	0	2,110,464

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Austin 3 Boston 2	+0.3
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 3	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Boston vs Montreal	-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.3
Chicago vs Austin	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

96	21	0		-	0						0	9	33	41	13	4
95	20	0		-	1									20	60	20
94	19	0		-	2							3	6	19	34	22	9	6
93	19	1		-	1								1	16	24	30	18	11
92	18	1		-	2								1	4	16	34	25	15	3	1		1
91	18	2		-	1									2	6	21	31	26	11	2		1
90	17	2		-	2									0	2	8	23	32	22	7	1	4
89	17	3		-	1									0	0	2	12	26	32	18	3	7
88	16	3		-	2										0	1	4	16	31	27	8	14	0
87	16	4		-	1											0	1	6	21	32	16	23	0
86	15	4		-	2												0	2	11	28	24	34	1	0
85	15	5		-	1												0	0	4	19	28	44	4	0
84	14	5		-	2												0	0	1	10	28	52	8	0
83	13	5		-	3													0	0	5	24	54	16	1	0
82	13	6		-	2														0	2	19	52	25	2	0
	12	5		-	4													0	0	2	18	50	28	3
81	12	6		-	3														0	1	13	44	37	5	0
	13	7		-	1														0	1	13	44	37	5	0
80	12	7		-	2														0	0	9	36	45	10	0
	11	6		-	4															0	8	33	47	11	0
79	11	7		-	3															0	5	25	52	18	0	0
	12	8		-	1															0	5	25	51	18	0	0
78	11	8		-	2															0	3	17	52	27	1	0
	10	7		-	4															0	3	15	51	29	1	0
77	10	8		-	3																2	10	47	39	3	0	0
	11	9		-	1															0	2	9	47	39	2	0
76	10	9		-	2															0	1	5	40	49	5	0
	9	8		-	4															0	1	5	38	50	7	0
75	9	9		-	3																0	2	29	57	11	1	0
	10	10		-	1																0	2	29	57	11	1	0
74	9	10		-	2																0	1	20	59	18	2	0
	8	9		-	4															0	0	1	18	58	22	2	0
73	8	10		-	3																0	0	11	55	29	4	0
	9	11		-	1																0	0	11	56	28	4	0
72	8	11		-	2																0	0	6	47	38	9	1
71	7	11		-	3																0	0	3	36	44	16	2
70	7	12		-	2																0		1	24	45	26	4	0
69	6	12		-	3																		0	15	42	35	8	0
68	6	13		-	2																		0	8	34	43	15	0
67	5	13		-	3																		0	4	24	46	25	1
66	5	14		-	2																			2	14	45	36	3
65	4	14		-	3																			0	8	40	47	5
64	4	15		-	2																			0	3	31	57	9
63	4	16		-	1																			0	3	24	58	15
62	3	16		-	2																				0	12	68	19
61	3	17		-	1																				1	6	57	35
60	2	17		-	2																						48	52
59	2	18		-	1																						50	50
58	1	18		-	2																						50	50
54	0	21		-	0																						11	89

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	19	30	28	9	3	1	0