Valor FC Title Chances Fall2014

Tied Aeros 2-2, title odds down 6.6 to 12.3%

4 points 1-1-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	-2.7		-2.6		-0.2
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	+1.3		+0.2		+0.0
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	-0.5		-0.3		-0.0
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	-0.1		-0.3		-0.0
BFC 4 Old Timers 6			-0.3

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Old Timers vs Valor FC	-5.8-2.7+6.7		-13.8-4.1+14.4		-0.8-0.2+0.8
SS Balls vs Aeros	-1.8+1.6+1.2		+0.5+0.6-1.2
Real Teal vs Average Joes	-0.1+0.5-0.2		-0.4+1.2-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	-0.2+0.5-0.1		-0.4+1.3-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
BFC vs Grass Kickers			-0.2+0.5-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Valor FC finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Top 4		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

34	10	-	0	-	0	Yes		Yes		100										8,417
32	9	-	1	-	0	99.8	%	Yes		100	0									17,455
31	9	-	0	-	1	98.8		Yes		99	1									23,799
30	8	-	2	-	0	98.4		Yes		98	2									48,232
29	8	-	1	-	1	95.7		Yes		96	4	0								133,306
28	8	-	0	-	2	90.2		Yes		90	10	0								92,314
	7	-	3	-	0	92.8		Yes		93	7	0								78,993
27	7	-	2	-	1	85.8		Yes		86	14	0								327,625
26	7	-	1	-	2	75.1		Yes		75	24	1	0							452,867
	6	-	4	-	0	78.9		Yes		79	21	0								85,649
25	6	-	3	-	1	63.7		Yes		64	34	2	0							470,563
	7	-	0	-	3	60.8		Yes		61	36	3	0							208,548
24	6	-	2	-	2	47.4		100.0	%	47	45	7	0	0						971,826
	5	-	5	-	0	52.3		Yes		52	43	5	0							63,192
23	6	-	1	-	3	30.1		100.0		30	52	16	1	0						887,953
	5	-	4	-	1	31.5		100.0		32	52	15	1	0						433,093
22	5	-	3	-	2	15.7		99.8		16	49	30	5	0	0					1,188,735
	6	-	0	-	4	15.7		99.7		16	49	30	5	0	0					335,836	*
21	5	-	2	-	3	6.1		98.5		6	36	42	15	1	0					1,629,957
	4	-	5	-	1	6.6		98.9		7	37	42	13	1	0					265,370
20	5	-	1	-	4	1.5		92.6		2	18	43	30	7	0	0				1,113,008
	4	-	4	-	2	1.4		92.6		1	18	43	31	7	0	0				918,487	*
19	4	-	3	-	3	0.2		74.7		0	5	28	42	21	4	0	0			1,654,620
	5	-	0	-	5	0.2		75.0		0	6	28	41	21	4	0	0			302,880
	3	-	6	-	1	0.2		78.8		0	6	30	42	19	2	0	0			108,641
18	4	-	2	-	4	0.0		47.5		0	1	11	35	37	14	2	0	0		1,690,545
	3	-	5	-	2	0.0		46.7		0	1	10	35	38	14	1	0			447,004	*
17	3	-	4	-	3	0.0		17.2		0	0	2	15	39	34	10	1	0		1,010,117
	4	-	1	-	5	0.0		19.6		0	0	2	17	40	32	8	1	0		949,848	*
16	3	-	3	-	4	No		4.1			0	0	4	22	41	27	5	0	0	1,374,899
	4	-	0	-	6	No		4.4			0	0	4	23	42	26	5	0	0	208,702
	2	-	6	-	2	No		3.9			0	0	4	23	43	26	4	0		135,556	*
15	3	-	2	-	5	No		0.5				0	1	8	31	42	18	2	0	1,119,480
	2	-	5	-	3	No		0.3				0	0	6	29	43	19	2	0	374,535	*
14	2	-	4	-	4	No		0.0					0	1	11	38	39	11	0	626,378
	3	-	1	-	6	No		0.0					0	1	13	40	36	9	0	530,014	*
13	2	-	3	-	5	No		0.0					0	0	3	22	46	26	3	677,900
	3	-	0	-	7	No		0.0					0	0	3	24	47	24	2	97,804
	1	-	6	-	3	No		No						0	2	21	47	27	3	74,896	*
12	2	-	2	-	6	No		No						0	0	9	39	42	9	459,215
	1	-	5	-	4	No		No						0	0	7	37	45	10	153,763	*
11	1	-	4	-	5	No		No							0	2	21	53	24	204,833
	2	-	1	-	7	No		No							0	2	25	52	21	183,638	*
10	1	-	3	-	6	No		No								0	10	50	40	229,979	*
9	1	-	2	-	7	No		No								0	4	39	57	131,784	*
8	1	-	1	-	8	No		No									1	26	73	63,678	*
7	0	-	3	-	7	No		No									0	14	85	26,761	*
6	0	-	2	-	8	No		No										7	93	10,644
5	0	-	1	-	9	No		No										3	97	3,125
4	0	-	0	-	10	No		No										0	100	6,036

Total:						12.3	%	55.6	%	12	16	15	13	12	10	9	7	5	2	22,612,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	+0.2
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	+0.0
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	+0.0
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+0.8+0.2-0.8
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Real Teal vs Average Joes	+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

34	10	-	0	-	0	100
32	9	-	1	-	0	100	0
31	9	-	0	-	1	99	1
30	8	-	2	-	0	98	2
29	8	-	1	-	1	96	4	0
28	8	-	0	-	2	90	10	0
	7	-	3	-	0	93	7	0
27	7	-	2	-	1	86	14	0
26	7	-	1	-	2	75	24	1	0
	6	-	4	-	0	79	21	0
25	6	-	3	-	1	64	34	2	0
	7	-	0	-	3	61	36	3	0
24	6	-	2	-	2	47	45	7	0	0
	5	-	5	-	0	52	43	5	0
23	6	-	1	-	3	30	52	16	1	0
	5	-	4	-	1	32	52	15	1	0
22	5	-	3	-	2	16	49	30	5	0	0
	6	-	0	-	4	16	49	30	5	0	0
21	5	-	2	-	3	6	36	42	15	1	0
	4	-	5	-	1	7	37	42	13	1	0
20	5	-	1	-	4	2	18	43	30	7	0	0
	4	-	4	-	2	1	18	43	31	7	0	0
19	4	-	3	-	3	0	5	28	42	21	4	0	0
	5	-	0	-	5	0	6	28	41	21	4	0	0
	3	-	6	-	1	0	6	30	42	19	2	0	0
18	4	-	2	-	4	0	1	11	35	37	14	2	0	0
	3	-	5	-	2	0	1	10	35	38	14	1	0
17	3	-	4	-	3	0	0	2	15	39	34	10	1	0
	4	-	1	-	5	0	0	2	17	40	32	8	1	0
16	3	-	3	-	4		0	0	4	22	41	27	5	0	0
	4	-	0	-	6		0	0	4	23	42	26	5	0	0
	2	-	6	-	2		0	0	4	23	43	26	4	0
15	3	-	2	-	5			0	1	8	31	42	18	2	0
	2	-	5	-	3			0	0	6	29	43	19	2	0
14	2	-	4	-	4				0	1	11	38	39	11	0
	3	-	1	-	6				0	1	13	40	36	9	0
13	2	-	3	-	5				0	0	3	22	46	26	3
	3	-	0	-	7				0	0	3	24	47	24	2
	1	-	6	-	3					0	2	21	47	27	3
12	2	-	2	-	6					0	0	9	39	42	9
	1	-	5	-	4					0	0	7	37	45	10
11	1	-	4	-	5						0	2	21	53	24
	2	-	1	-	7						0	2	25	52	21
10	1	-	3	-	6							0	10	50	40
9	1	-	2	-	7							0	4	39	57
8	1	-	1	-	8								1	26	73
7	0	-	3	-	7								0	14	85
6	0	-	2	-	8									7	93
5	0	-	1	-	9									3	97
4	0	-	0	-	10									0	100

Total:						12	16	15	13	12	10	9	7	5	2