SS Balls Title Chances Fall2014

Beat Grass Stains 9-0, title odds up 26.6 to 44.6%

6 points 2-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	+9.6		+13.7		+0.8
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	+1.4		+0.8		+0.1
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	+1.3		+0.3		+0.0
BFC 4 Old Timers 6	-0.1		-0.3		-0.0
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	-0.1		-0.3		-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
SS Balls vs Aeros	+13.2-4.7-14.3		+7.4-1.9-8.6		+0.5-0.2-0.6
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+0.5+1.9-1.6		-0.2+0.6-0.2		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Real Teal vs Average Joes	-0.4+1.4-0.5		-0.2+0.7-0.2		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	-0.5+1.4-0.4		-0.2+0.7-0.2		-0.0+0.1-0.0
BFC vs Grass Kickers			-0.1+0.3-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the SS Balls finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Top 4		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

34	-36						Yes		Yes		100										78,145	*
33		9	-	0	-	1	99.9	%	Yes		100	0									69,466
32		8	-	2	-	0	100.0		Yes		100	0									146,877
31		8	-	1	-	1	99.9		Yes		100	0									333,130
30		7	-	3	-	0	99.8		Yes		100	0									209,475
		8	-	0	-	2	99.4		Yes		99	1									188,619
29		7	-	2	-	1	99.2		Yes		99	1									712,617
28		7	-	1	-	2	97.3		Yes		97	3	0								804,910
		6	-	4	-	0	98.3		Yes		98	2	0								196,065
27		6	-	3	-	1	95.4		Yes		95	5	0								886,185
		7	-	0	-	3	93.7		Yes		94	6	0								303,087
26		6	-	2	-	2	89.7		Yes		90	10	0	0							1,501,007
		5	-	5	-	0	91.1		Yes		91	9	0								125,945
25		6	-	1	-	3	78.6		Yes		79	20	1	0							1,128,218
		5	-	4	-	1	80.9		Yes		81	18	1	0							709,253
24		5	-	3	-	2	67.4		100.0	%	67	30	3	0	0						1,600,593
		6	-	0	-	4	63.4		100.0		63	33	4	0	0						316,258
		4	-	6	-	0	69.6		Yes		70	28	2	0							55,751
23		5	-	2	-	3	48.8		100.0		49	42	8	0	0						1,801,527
		4	-	5	-	1	48.8		100.0		49	42	9	0	0						377,689
22		4	-	4	-	2	29.5		99.9		29	48	20	3	0	0					1,066,140
		5	-	1	-	4	27.9		99.9		28	48	21	3	0	0					1,028,647	*
21		4	-	3	-	3	14.2		99.3		14	43	34	9	1	0					1,594,387
		5	-	0	-	5	11.9		99.2		12	41	36	10	1	0					227,518
		3	-	6	-	1	13.2		99.3		13	42	35	9	1	0					134,476
20		4	-	2	-	4	4.2		95.9		4	26	43	23	4	0	0				1,342,372
		3	-	5	-	2	3.7		95.1		4	24	42	24	5	0	0				457,943	*
19		3	-	4	-	3	0.7		81.5		1	10	33	38	16	2	0	0			848,606
		4	-	1	-	5	0.6		81.7		1	9	33	39	16	2	0				632,850	*
18		3	-	3	-	4	0.1		56.2		0	2	16	38	33	10	1	0			951,149
		2	-	6	-	2	0.0		51.0		0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0			120,758
		4	-	0	-	6	0.0		52.8		0	1	13	38	35	11	1	0			112,161	*
17		3	-	2	-	5	0.0		24.2		0	0	3	21	41	28	6	0	0		640,241
		2	-	5	-	3	0.0		20.4		0	0	3	18	39	31	8	1	0		274,695	*
16		2	-	4	-	4	No		5.2			0	0	5	24	41	25	5	0	0	396,793	*
		3	-	1	-	6	No		4.9			0	0	5	25	42	24	4	0		237,031
15		2	-	3	-	5	No		0.7				0	1	8	33	41	16	2	0	337,697
		1	-	6	-	3	No		0.3				0	0	6	28	43	21	2	0	47,637
		3	-	0	-	7	No		0.4					0	7	32	42	17	2	0	38,403	*
14		2	-	2	-	6	No		0.0					0	1	14	41	36	8	0	188,637
		1	-	5	-	4	No		0.0					0	1	11	37	39	11	1	81,330	*
13		1	-	4	-	5	No		0.0					0	0	3	22	45	26	3	89,458
		2	-	1	-	7	No		No						0	3	23	47	25	2	63,483	*
12		1	-	3	-	6	No		No						0	0	9	38	43	9	81,374	*
11		1	-	2	-	7	No		No							0	2	23	52	23	41,144	*
10		1	-	1	-	8	No		No								0	10	50	40	17,474	*
9		0	-	3	-	7	No		No								0	4	38	58	6,769	*
8		0	-	2	-	8	No		No									1	25	74	2,279
7		0	-	1	-	9	No		No									0	13	87	550
6		0	-	0	-	10	No		No									0	5	95	5,681

Total:							44.6	%	85.9	%	45	20	13	8	6	4	2	1	1	0	22,612,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	-0.8
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	-0.1
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	+0.0
BFC 4 Old Timers 6	+0.0
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
SS Balls vs Aeros	-0.5+0.2+0.6
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Real Teal vs Average Joes	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

34	-36						100
33		9	-	0	-	1	100	0
32		8	-	2	-	0	100	0
31		8	-	1	-	1	100	0
30		7	-	3	-	0	100	0
		8	-	0	-	2	99	1
29		7	-	2	-	1	99	1
28		7	-	1	-	2	97	3	0
		6	-	4	-	0	98	2	0
27		6	-	3	-	1	95	5	0
		7	-	0	-	3	94	6	0
26		6	-	2	-	2	90	10	0	0
		5	-	5	-	0	91	9	0
25		6	-	1	-	3	79	20	1	0
		5	-	4	-	1	81	18	1	0
24		5	-	3	-	2	67	30	3	0	0
		6	-	0	-	4	63	33	4	0	0
		4	-	6	-	0	70	28	2	0
23		5	-	2	-	3	49	42	8	0	0
		4	-	5	-	1	49	42	9	0	0
22		4	-	4	-	2	29	48	20	3	0	0
		5	-	1	-	4	28	48	21	3	0	0
21		4	-	3	-	3	14	43	34	9	1	0
		5	-	0	-	5	12	41	36	10	1	0
		3	-	6	-	1	13	42	35	9	1	0
20		4	-	2	-	4	4	26	43	23	4	0	0
		3	-	5	-	2	4	24	42	24	5	0	0
19		3	-	4	-	3	1	10	33	38	16	2	0	0
		4	-	1	-	5	1	9	33	39	16	2	0
18		3	-	3	-	4	0	2	16	38	33	10	1	0
		2	-	6	-	2	0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0
		4	-	0	-	6	0	1	13	38	35	11	1	0
17		3	-	2	-	5	0	0	3	21	41	28	6	0	0
		2	-	5	-	3	0	0	3	18	39	31	8	1	0
16		2	-	4	-	4		0	0	5	24	41	25	5	0	0
		3	-	1	-	6		0	0	5	25	42	24	4	0
15		2	-	3	-	5			0	1	8	33	41	16	2	0
		1	-	6	-	3			0	0	6	28	43	21	2	0
		3	-	0	-	7				0	7	32	42	17	2	0
14		2	-	2	-	6				0	1	14	41	36	8	0
		1	-	5	-	4				0	1	11	37	39	11	1
13		1	-	4	-	5				0	0	3	22	45	26	3
		2	-	1	-	7					0	3	23	47	25	2
12		1	-	3	-	6					0	0	9	38	43	9
11		1	-	2	-	7						0	2	23	52	23
10		1	-	1	-	8							0	10	50	40
9		0	-	3	-	7							0	4	38	58
8		0	-	2	-	8								1	25	74
7		0	-	1	-	9								0	13	87
6		0	-	0	-	10								0	5	95

Total:							45	20	13	8	6	4	2	1	1	0