Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

The Old Timers Title Chances Fall2014

Beat BFC 6-4, title odds up 4.3 to 6%

3 points 1-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
BFC 4 Old Timers 6	+1.4		+9.0		+0.9
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	+0.2		+0.6
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	+0.2		+0.2		-0.1
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	-0.1		-0.2
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8			-0.2		-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+4.8-1.4-3.3		+15.9-3.1-11.7		+1.0-0.2-0.7
SS Balls vs Aeros	-1.0+0.9+0.6		+0.5+0.6-1.2		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Real Teal vs Average Joes	-0.1+0.3-0.1		-0.4+1.3-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	-0.1+0.3-0.1		-0.4+1.2-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
BFC vs Grass Kickers			-0.2+0.4-0.1		-0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Old Timers finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Top 4		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

33	10	-	0	-	0	100.0	%	Yes		100	0									6,722
31	9	-	1	-	0	99.3		Yes		99	1									7,815
30	9	-	0	-	1	98.0		Yes		98	2									11,909
29	8	-	2	-	0	96.9		Yes		97	3									23,401
28	8	-	1	-	1	92.6		Yes		93	7	0								71,667
27	8	-	0	-	2	87.8		Yes		88	12	0								97,566	*
26	7	-	2	-	1	79.2		Yes		79	20	0	0							193,857
25	7	-	1	-	2	65.2		Yes		65	32	2	0							294,805
	6	-	4	-	0	69.1		Yes		69	29	1	0							50,154
24	6	-	3	-	1	52.2		100.0	%	52	42	5	0	0						303,797
	7	-	0	-	3	50.3		Yes		50	43	6	0							149,150
23	6	-	2	-	2	33.7		100.0		34	51	14	1	0						731,705	*
22	6	-	1	-	3	17.7		99.8		18	49	28	5	0	0					698,725
	5	-	4	-	1	18.7		99.9		19	50	27	4	0	0					305,626
21	5	-	3	-	2	7.4		98.8		7	38	41	13	1	0					948,493	*
	6	-	0	-	4	7.2		98.7		7	37	41	13	1	0	0				263,224
20	5	-	2	-	3	1.9		93.5		2	20	43	29	6	0	0				1,399,904
	4	-	5	-	1	1.8		93.8		2	20	43	29	6	0	0				204,803
19	5	-	1	-	4	0.2		77.8		0	6	30	41	19	3	0	0			1,053,828
	4	-	4	-	2	0.3		77.6		0	7	30	41	19	3	0	0			783,559	*
18	4	-	3	-	3	0.0		50.5		0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0	0		1,557,380
	5	-	0	-	5	0.0		51.1		0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0			316,893
	3	-	6	-	1	0.0		49.6		0	1	12	37	37	12	1	0			91,745
17	4	-	2	-	4	0.0		21.7		0	0	3	19	41	30	7	0	0		1,752,808
	3	-	5	-	2	No		19.5			0	2	17	40	32	8	1	0		415,562	*
16	4	-	1	-	5	No		5.3			0	0	5	26	42	23	4	0	0	1,053,426
	3	-	4	-	3	No		4.9			0	0	5	24	42	25	4	0		1,062,819	*
15	3	-	3	-	4	No		0.7				0	1	9	33	40	16	1	0	1,553,740
	4	-	0	-	6	No		0.6				0	1	9	34	40	14	1	0	262,361
	2	-	6	-	2	No		0.4				0	0	7	31	42	18	2	0	138,637	*
14	3	-	2	-	5	No		0.0				0	0	2	16	42	34	7	0	1,397,307
	2	-	5	-	3	No		0.0				0	0	1	13	40	37	9	0	418,487	*
13	2	-	4	-	4	No		0.0					0	0	4	25	46	23	2	773,305
	3	-	1	-	6	No		0.0					0	0	4	27	46	21	2	721,275	*
12	2	-	3	-	5	No		No						0	1	11	42	39	7	924,907
	3	-	0	-	7	No		No						0	1	12	43	38	6	148,338
	1	-	6	-	3	No		No						0	0	9	39	43	9	91,603	*
11	2	-	2	-	6	No		No						0	0	3	28	51	17	688,039
	1	-	5	-	4	No		No							0	2	24	52	21	208,004	*
10	1	-	4	-	5	No		No							0	1	13	51	36	305,384
	2	-	1	-	7	No		No							0	1	14	52	33	301,874	*
9	1	-	3	-	6	No		No								0	5	43	52	303,484
	2	-	0	-	8	No		No								0	5	44	51	77,246	*
8	1	-	2	-	7	No		No								0	2	30	68	233,444	*
7	1	-	1	-	8	No		No									0	19	80	71,497
	0	-	4	-	6	No		No									0	17	83	50,135
6	0	-	3	-	7	No		No									0	10	90	54,170	*
5	0	-	2	-	8	No		No										4	96	23,524
4	0	-	1	-	9	No		No										1	99	7,590
3	0	-	0	-	10	No		No										0	100	6,806

Total:						6.0	%	38.2	%	6	10	11	12	12	13	12	11	9	5	22,612,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
BFC 4 Old Timers 6	-0.9
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	+0.1
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
Old Timers vs Valor FC	-1.0+0.2+0.7
SS Balls vs Aeros	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Real Teal vs Average Joes	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	+0.0-0.1+0.0
BFC vs Grass Kickers	+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

33	10	-	0	-	0	100	0
31	9	-	1	-	0	99	1
30	9	-	0	-	1	98	2
29	8	-	2	-	0	97	3
28	8	-	1	-	1	93	7	0
27	8	-	0	-	2	88	12	0
26	7	-	2	-	1	79	20	0	0
25	7	-	1	-	2	65	32	2	0
	6	-	4	-	0	69	29	1	0
24	6	-	3	-	1	52	42	5	0	0
	7	-	0	-	3	50	43	6	0
23	6	-	2	-	2	34	51	14	1	0
22	6	-	1	-	3	18	49	28	5	0	0
	5	-	4	-	1	19	50	27	4	0	0
21	5	-	3	-	2	7	38	41	13	1	0
	6	-	0	-	4	7	37	41	13	1	0	0
20	5	-	2	-	3	2	20	43	29	6	0	0
	4	-	5	-	1	2	20	43	29	6	0	0
19	5	-	1	-	4	0	6	30	41	19	3	0	0
	4	-	4	-	2	0	7	30	41	19	3	0	0
18	4	-	3	-	3	0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0	0
	5	-	0	-	5	0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0
	3	-	6	-	1	0	1	12	37	37	12	1	0
17	4	-	2	-	4	0	0	3	19	41	30	7	0	0
	3	-	5	-	2		0	2	17	40	32	8	1	0
16	4	-	1	-	5		0	0	5	26	42	23	4	0	0
	3	-	4	-	3		0	0	5	24	42	25	4	0
15	3	-	3	-	4			0	1	9	33	40	16	1	0
	4	-	0	-	6			0	1	9	34	40	14	1	0
	2	-	6	-	2			0	0	7	31	42	18	2	0
14	3	-	2	-	5			0	0	2	16	42	34	7	0
	2	-	5	-	3			0	0	1	13	40	37	9	0
13	2	-	4	-	4				0	0	4	25	46	23	2
	3	-	1	-	6				0	0	4	27	46	21	2
12	2	-	3	-	5					0	1	11	42	39	7
	3	-	0	-	7					0	1	12	43	38	6
	1	-	6	-	3					0	0	9	39	43	9
11	2	-	2	-	6					0	0	3	28	51	17
	1	-	5	-	4						0	2	24	52	21
10	1	-	4	-	5						0	1	13	51	36
	2	-	1	-	7						0	1	14	52	33
9	1	-	3	-	6							0	5	43	52
	2	-	0	-	8							0	5	44	51
8	1	-	2	-	7							0	2	30	68
7	1	-	1	-	8								0	19	80
	0	-	4	-	6								0	17	83
6	0	-	3	-	7								0	10	90
5	0	-	2	-	8									4	96
4	0	-	1	-	9									1	99
3	0	-	0	-	10									0	100

Total:						6	10	11	12	12	13	12	11	9	5