Grass Stains Title Chances Fall2014

Lost to SS Balls 0-9, title odds down 11.7 to 5.9%

3 points 1-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	-7.8		-11.9		-0.7
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	+1.4		+0.8		+0.1
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	+1.1		+0.3		+0.0
BFC 4 Old Timers 6	-0.1		-0.2		-0.0
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	-0.1		-0.3		-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	-3.2-1.6+4.2		-12.3-3.9+14.9		-0.8-0.2+0.9
SS Balls vs Aeros	-0.9+0.9+0.6		+0.5+0.6-1.1
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+0.1+0.4-0.3		-0.3+1.2-0.5		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Real Teal vs Average Joes	-0.1+0.3-0.1		-0.4+1.2-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
BFC vs Grass Kickers			-0.1+0.4-0.2		-0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Grass Stains finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Top 4		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

33	10	-	0	-	0	100.0	%	Yes		100	0									6,922
31	9	-	1	-	0	99.2		Yes		99	1									8,423
30	9	-	0	-	1	98.1		Yes		98	2									12,800
29	8	-	2	-	0	96.9		Yes		97	3									25,260
28	8	-	1	-	1	91.7		Yes		92	8	0								76,171
27	8	-	0	-	2	86.8		Yes		87	13	0								102,112	*
26	7	-	2	-	1	77.0		Yes		77	22	1	0							203,061
25	7	-	1	-	2	63.1		Yes		63	34	3	0							306,099
	6	-	4	-	0	67.1		Yes		67	31	2	0							52,986
24	6	-	3	-	1	49.3		100.0	%	49	44	6	0	0						315,606
	7	-	0	-	3	49.2		Yes		49	44	7	0							152,997
23	6	-	2	-	2	31.1		100.0		31	51	17	1	0						756,504	*
22	6	-	1	-	3	16.5		99.8		16	48	30	5	0	0					713,307
	5	-	4	-	1	16.9		99.8		17	49	29	5	0	0					316,391
21	5	-	3	-	2	6.2		98.5		6	35	42	15	1	0	0				948,779
	6	-	0	-	4	7.1		98.6		7	36	41	14	1	0					290,887	*
20	5	-	2	-	3	1.5		92.2		2	18	42	31	7	0	0				1,421,820
	4	-	5	-	1	1.6		93.1		2	18	43	30	7	0	0				210,098
19	5	-	1	-	4	0.2		75.7		0	6	28	41	21	3	0	0			1,062,294
	4	-	4	-	2	0.2		75.3		0	5	28	42	21	3	0	0			797,028	*
18	4	-	3	-	3	0.0		46.1		0	1	11	35	38	14	2	0	0		1,567,196
	5	-	0	-	5	0.0		50.0		0	1	12	37	36	12	1	0			316,572
	3	-	6	-	1	0.0		48.4		0	1	11	36	38	13	1	0			92,842
17	4	-	2	-	4	0.0		18.9		0	0	2	17	39	32	9	1	0		1,753,688
	3	-	5	-	2	No		17.8			0	2	16	39	33	9	1	0		419,175	*
16	4	-	1	-	5	No		4.7			0	0	5	24	42	25	4	0	0	1,043,967
	3	-	4	-	3	No		3.9			0	0	4	22	42	27	5	0	0	1,062,666	*
15	3	-	3	-	4	No		0.5				0	0	7	30	42	18	2	0	1,540,435
	4	-	0	-	6	No		0.6				0	1	9	33	41	15	1	0	258,395
	2	-	6	-	2	No		0.4				0	0	7	30	43	18	2	0	138,314	*
14	3	-	2	-	5	No		0.0					0	1	13	40	36	9	0	1,373,336
	2	-	5	-	3	No		0.0					0	1	12	39	38	10	0	414,218	*
13	2	-	4	-	4	No		0.0					0	0	3	22	47	25	3	760,870
	3	-	1	-	6	No		0.0					0	0	4	25	47	23	2	704,916	*
12	2	-	3	-	5	No		No						0	0	9	40	42	8	903,035
	3	-	0	-	7	No		No						0	1	11	43	39	7	144,180
	1	-	6	-	3	No		No						0	0	8	39	44	9	90,529	*
11	2	-	2	-	6	No		No						0	0	3	26	52	19	668,815
	1	-	5	-	4	No		No							0	2	23	53	22	202,159	*
10	1	-	4	-	5	No		No							0	0	11	50	38	296,198
	2	-	1	-	7	No		No							0	1	13	52	35	291,053	*
9	1	-	3	-	6	No		No								0	4	41	54	313,702	*
	2	-	0	-	8	No		No							0	0	5	44	50	52,047
8	1	-	2	-	7	No		No								0	1	29	70	223,544	*
7	1	-	1	-	8	No		No									0	18	82	67,126
	0	-	4	-	6	No		No									0	16	84	47,073
6	0	-	3	-	7	No		No									0	9	91	50,956	*
5	0	-	2	-	8	No		No										4	96	22,110
4	0	-	1	-	9	No		No										1	99	7,200
3	0	-	0	-	10	No		No										0	100	6,638

Total:						5.9	%	38.1	%	6	9	11	12	12	12	12	11	9	5	22,612,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	+0.7
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	-0.1
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	+0.0
BFC 4 Old Timers 6	+0.0
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	+0.8+0.2-0.9
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Real Teal vs Average Joes	+0.0-0.1+0.0
BFC vs Grass Kickers	+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

33	10	-	0	-	0	100	0
31	9	-	1	-	0	99	1
30	9	-	0	-	1	98	2
29	8	-	2	-	0	97	3
28	8	-	1	-	1	92	8	0
27	8	-	0	-	2	87	13	0
26	7	-	2	-	1	77	22	1	0
25	7	-	1	-	2	63	34	3	0
	6	-	4	-	0	67	31	2	0
24	6	-	3	-	1	49	44	6	0	0
	7	-	0	-	3	49	44	7	0
23	6	-	2	-	2	31	51	17	1	0
22	6	-	1	-	3	16	48	30	5	0	0
	5	-	4	-	1	17	49	29	5	0	0
21	5	-	3	-	2	6	35	42	15	1	0	0
	6	-	0	-	4	7	36	41	14	1	0
20	5	-	2	-	3	2	18	42	31	7	0	0
	4	-	5	-	1	2	18	43	30	7	0	0
19	5	-	1	-	4	0	6	28	41	21	3	0	0
	4	-	4	-	2	0	5	28	42	21	3	0	0
18	4	-	3	-	3	0	1	11	35	38	14	2	0	0
	5	-	0	-	5	0	1	12	37	36	12	1	0
	3	-	6	-	1	0	1	11	36	38	13	1	0
17	4	-	2	-	4	0	0	2	17	39	32	9	1	0
	3	-	5	-	2		0	2	16	39	33	9	1	0
16	4	-	1	-	5		0	0	5	24	42	25	4	0	0
	3	-	4	-	3		0	0	4	22	42	27	5	0	0
15	3	-	3	-	4			0	0	7	30	42	18	2	0
	4	-	0	-	6			0	1	9	33	41	15	1	0
	2	-	6	-	2			0	0	7	30	43	18	2	0
14	3	-	2	-	5				0	1	13	40	36	9	0
	2	-	5	-	3				0	1	12	39	38	10	0
13	2	-	4	-	4				0	0	3	22	47	25	3
	3	-	1	-	6				0	0	4	25	47	23	2
12	2	-	3	-	5					0	0	9	40	42	8
	3	-	0	-	7					0	1	11	43	39	7
	1	-	6	-	3					0	0	8	39	44	9
11	2	-	2	-	6					0	0	3	26	52	19
	1	-	5	-	4						0	2	23	53	22
10	1	-	4	-	5						0	0	11	50	38
	2	-	1	-	7						0	1	13	52	35
9	1	-	3	-	6							0	4	41	54
	2	-	0	-	8						0	0	5	44	50
8	1	-	2	-	7							0	1	29	70
7	1	-	1	-	8								0	18	82
	0	-	4	-	6								0	16	84
6	0	-	3	-	7								0	9	91
5	0	-	2	-	8									4	96
4	0	-	1	-	9									1	99
3	0	-	0	-	10									0	100

Total:						6	9	11	12	12	12	12	11	9	5