Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Ball Busters Title Chances Fall2014

Lost to Real Teal 0-2, title odds down 12.5 to 6.2%

3 points 1-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	-7.7		-13.5		-0.8
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	+1.5		+0.8		+0.1
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	-0.7		-0.3		-0.0
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	-0.1		-0.3
BFC 4 Old Timers 6	-0.1		-0.2

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	+4.3-1.6-3.3		+15.0-3.8-12.4		+0.9-0.2-0.8
SS Balls vs Aeros	-1.0+0.9+0.6		+0.5+0.7-1.2		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+0.1+0.4-0.3		-0.3+1.2-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Real Teal vs Average Joes	-0.1+0.3-0.1		-0.4+1.3-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
BFC vs Grass Kickers			-0.1+0.4-0.2		-0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Ball Busters finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Top 4		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

33	10	-	0	-	0	Yes		Yes		100										6,854
31	9	-	1	-	0	99.3	%	Yes		99	1									8,265
30	9	-	0	-	1	97.9		Yes		98	2									12,821
29	8	-	2	-	0	97.1		Yes		97	3									25,423
28	8	-	1	-	1	92.3		Yes		92	8	0								76,685
27	8	-	0	-	2	87.6		Yes		88	12	0								101,947	*
26	7	-	2	-	1	78.3		Yes		78	21	1	0							203,169
25	7	-	1	-	2	64.4		Yes		64	33	3	0							305,394
	6	-	4	-	0	68.1		Yes		68	30	2	0							53,024
24	6	-	3	-	1	51.1		100.0	%	51	43	6	0	0						317,187
	7	-	0	-	3	49.9		100.0		50	43	7	0	0						154,092
23	6	-	2	-	2	33.0		100.0		33	51	15	1	0						754,547	*
22	6	-	1	-	3	17.5		99.8		17	49	29	5	0	0					712,909
	5	-	4	-	1	18.2		99.8		18	50	28	4	0	0					317,175
21	5	-	3	-	2	7.2		98.8		7	37	41	13	1	0					948,479
	6	-	0	-	4	7.1		98.7		7	37	41	13	1	0					291,732	*
20	5	-	2	-	3	1.8		93.5		2	20	43	29	6	0	0				1,420,132
	4	-	5	-	1	1.8		93.5		2	19	43	29	6	0	0				210,344
19	5	-	1	-	4	0.2		77.8		0	7	30	41	19	3	0	0			1,061,569
	4	-	4	-	2	0.2		77.6		0	6	30	41	19	3	0	0			795,153	*
18	4	-	3	-	3	0.0		50.6		0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0			1,567,939
	5	-	0	-	5	0.0		51.1		0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0			316,712
	3	-	6	-	1	0.0		49.2		0	1	12	36	37	12	1	0			93,006
17	4	-	2	-	4	0.0		21.7		0	0	3	19	41	30	7	0	0		1,754,253
	3	-	5	-	2	0.0		19.6		0	0	2	17	40	32	8	1	0		418,725	*
16	4	-	1	-	5	No		5.3			0	0	5	26	42	23	4	0	0	1,044,528
	3	-	4	-	3	No		5.0			0	0	5	24	42	24	4	0	0	1,061,122	*
15	3	-	3	-	4	No		0.7				0	1	9	33	41	16	1	0	1,541,285
	4	-	0	-	6	No		0.6				0	1	9	34	41	15	1	0	259,290
	2	-	6	-	2	No		0.5				0	0	7	31	42	18	2	0	137,954	*
14	3	-	2	-	5	No		0.0				0	0	2	15	41	34	7	0	1,375,132
	2	-	5	-	3	No		0.0					0	1	13	40	37	9	0	412,508	*
13	2	-	4	-	4	No		0.0					0	0	4	24	46	23	2	760,896
	3	-	1	-	6	No		0.0					0	0	4	26	47	21	2	706,395	*
12	2	-	3	-	5	No		No						0	1	11	42	40	7	904,122
	3	-	0	-	7	No		No						0	1	11	43	38	6	143,082
	1	-	6	-	3	No		No						0	0	8	40	43	9	90,656	*
11	2	-	2	-	6	No		No							0	3	28	51	18	668,364
	1	-	5	-	4	No		No							0	2	24	53	21	202,174	*
10	1	-	4	-	5	No		No							0	0	12	51	36	296,527
	2	-	1	-	7	No		No							0	1	14	52	33	289,754	*
9	1	-	3	-	6	No		No								0	5	43	52	291,557
	2	-	0	-	8	No		No								0	5	43	52	73,531	*
8	1	-	2	-	7	No		No								0	2	30	68	223,186	*
7	1	-	1	-	8	No		No									0	19	81	68,006
	0	-	4	-	6	No		No								0	0	17	83	47,879
6	0	-	3	-	7	No		No									0	9	90	51,227	*
5	0	-	2	-	8	No		No									0	4	96	21,834
4	0	-	1	-	9	No		No										1	99	7,290
3	0	-	0	-	10	No		No										0	100	6,665

Total:						6.2	%	39.0	%	6	10	11	12	12	12	12	11	9	4	22,612,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	+0.8
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	-0.1
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	-0.9+0.2+0.8
SS Balls vs Aeros	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Real Teal vs Average Joes	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+0.0-0.1+0.0
BFC vs Grass Kickers	+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

33	10	-	0	-	0	100
31	9	-	1	-	0	99	1
30	9	-	0	-	1	98	2
29	8	-	2	-	0	97	3
28	8	-	1	-	1	92	8	0
27	8	-	0	-	2	88	12	0
26	7	-	2	-	1	78	21	1	0
25	7	-	1	-	2	64	33	3	0
	6	-	4	-	0	68	30	2	0
24	6	-	3	-	1	51	43	6	0	0
	7	-	0	-	3	50	43	7	0	0
23	6	-	2	-	2	33	51	15	1	0
22	6	-	1	-	3	17	49	29	5	0	0
	5	-	4	-	1	18	50	28	4	0	0
21	5	-	3	-	2	7	37	41	13	1	0
	6	-	0	-	4	7	37	41	13	1	0
20	5	-	2	-	3	2	20	43	29	6	0	0
	4	-	5	-	1	2	19	43	29	6	0	0
19	5	-	1	-	4	0	7	30	41	19	3	0	0
	4	-	4	-	2	0	6	30	41	19	3	0	0
18	4	-	3	-	3	0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0
	5	-	0	-	5	0	1	13	37	36	12	1	0
	3	-	6	-	1	0	1	12	36	37	12	1	0
17	4	-	2	-	4	0	0	3	19	41	30	7	0	0
	3	-	5	-	2	0	0	2	17	40	32	8	1	0
16	4	-	1	-	5		0	0	5	26	42	23	4	0	0
	3	-	4	-	3		0	0	5	24	42	24	4	0	0
15	3	-	3	-	4			0	1	9	33	41	16	1	0
	4	-	0	-	6			0	1	9	34	41	15	1	0
	2	-	6	-	2			0	0	7	31	42	18	2	0
14	3	-	2	-	5			0	0	2	15	41	34	7	0
	2	-	5	-	3				0	1	13	40	37	9	0
13	2	-	4	-	4				0	0	4	24	46	23	2
	3	-	1	-	6				0	0	4	26	47	21	2
12	2	-	3	-	5					0	1	11	42	40	7
	3	-	0	-	7					0	1	11	43	38	6
	1	-	6	-	3					0	0	8	40	43	9
11	2	-	2	-	6						0	3	28	51	18
	1	-	5	-	4						0	2	24	53	21
10	1	-	4	-	5						0	0	12	51	36
	2	-	1	-	7						0	1	14	52	33
9	1	-	3	-	6							0	5	43	52
	2	-	0	-	8							0	5	43	52
8	1	-	2	-	7							0	2	30	68
7	1	-	1	-	8								0	19	81
	0	-	4	-	6							0	0	17	83
6	0	-	3	-	7								0	9	90
5	0	-	2	-	8								0	4	96
4	0	-	1	-	9									1	99
3	0	-	0	-	10									0	100

Total:						6	10	11	12	12	12	12	11	9	4