Aeros Title Chances Fall2014

Tied Valor FC 2-2, title odds down 6 to 11.7%

4 points 1-1-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	-2.6		-2.8		-0.2
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	+1.3		+0.3		+0.0
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	-0.3		-0.3		-0.0
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	-0.1		-0.3		-0.0
BFC 4 Old Timers 6	-0.1		-0.2

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
SS Balls vs Aeros	-6.4-1.5+9.9		-10.5-2.1+16.1		-0.6-0.1+1.0
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+0.2+0.7-0.6		-0.4+1.2-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Real Teal vs Average Joes	-0.2+0.5-0.2		-0.4+1.3-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	-0.2+0.5-0.1		-0.5+1.3-0.4		-0.0+0.1-0.0
BFC vs Grass Kickers			-0.2+0.5-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Aeros finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Top 4		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

32	-34						Yes		Yes		100										21,694	*
31		9	-	0	-	1	99.5	%	Yes		99	1									20,129
30		8	-	2	-	0	99.5		Yes		100	0									39,554
29		8	-	1	-	1	97.6		Yes		98	2	0								114,136
28		8	-	0	-	2	92.2		Yes		92	8	0								80,848
		7	-	3	-	0	96.4		Yes		96	4	0								67,652
27		7	-	2	-	1	89.7		Yes		90	10	0								287,396
26		7	-	1	-	2	78.4		Yes		78	21	1	0							407,807
		6	-	4	-	0	85.0		Yes		85	15	0								74,413
25		6	-	3	-	1	68.6		Yes		69	29	2	0							422,237
		7	-	0	-	3	62.0		Yes		62	35	3	0							191,443
24		6	-	2	-	2	49.8		100.0	%	50	43	7	0	0						894,297
		5	-	5	-	0	58.3		Yes		58	37	4	0							56,307
23		6	-	1	-	3	30.5		100.0		30	51	17	1	0						841,819
		5	-	4	-	1	34.7		100.0		35	50	15	1	0						397,378
22		5	-	3	-	2	16.5		99.8		17	48	30	5	0	0					1,122,522
		6	-	0	-	4	15.6		99.7		16	47	31	6	0	0					325,294	*
21		5	-	2	-	3	6.1		98.3		6	34	42	15	2	0	0				1,576,681
		4	-	5	-	1	7.2		98.9		7	37	41	13	1	0					249,415
20		5	-	1	-	4	1.4		92.1		1	17	42	31	7	0	0				1,106,163
		4	-	4	-	2	1.4		92.1		1	17	42	32	7	0	0				888,182	*
19		4	-	3	-	3	0.2		73.5		0	5	26	42	22	4	0	0			1,640,828
		5	-	0	-	5	0.2		74.7		0	5	27	42	21	4	0	0			310,248
		3	-	6	-	1	0.2		78.0		0	6	30	42	19	3	0				104,075
18		4	-	2	-	4	0.0		46.2		0	1	11	35	38	14	2	0	0		1,726,557
		3	-	5	-	2	0.0		45.5		0	1	10	35	39	14	1	0			441,053	*
17		3	-	4	-	3	No		16.5			0	2	15	39	34	10	1	0		1,050,122	*
		4	-	1	-	5	0.0		19.3		0	0	2	17	40	32	9	1	0		962,294
16		3	-	3	-	4	No		4.0			0	0	4	22	41	27	5	0	0	1,426,948
		4	-	0	-	6	No		4.7			0	0	4	24	42	25	5	0	0	223,074
		2	-	6	-	2	No		3.7			0	0	4	22	43	26	5	0		136,301	*
15		3	-	2	-	5	No		0.6				0	1	8	31	41	18	2	0	1,194,117
		2	-	5	-	3	No		0.3				0	0	6	29	43	19	2	0	385,720	*
14		2	-	4	-	4	No		0.0				0	0	1	11	38	39	10	0	665,853
		3	-	1	-	6	No		0.0				0	0	1	14	40	36	8	0	577,797	*
13		2	-	3	-	5	No		0.0					0	0	3	22	46	26	3	737,321
		3	-	0	-	7	No		0.0					0	0	4	25	46	23	2	109,872
		1	-	6	-	3	No		No						0	3	22	47	26	3	78,675	*
12		2	-	2	-	6	No		No						0	1	9	40	42	9	512,307
		1	-	5	-	4	No		No						0	0	8	37	45	10	165,865	*
11		1	-	4	-	5	No		No							0	2	22	53	23	228,063
		2	-	1	-	7	No		No							0	3	25	52	20	208,973	*
10		1	-	3	-	6	No		No							0	0	11	49	40	208,758
		2	-	0	-	8	No		No								0	11	50	38	51,814	*
9		1	-	2	-	7	No		No								0	4	39	57	151,470	*
8		1	-	1	-	8	No		No								0	1	26	73	74,617	*
7		0	-	3	-	7	No		No									0	15	85	31,555	*
6		0	-	2	-	8	No		No									0	7	92	12,785
5		0	-	1	-	9	No		No										2	98	3,925
4		0	-	0	-	10	No		No										0	100	6,146

Total:							11.7	%	52.8	%	12	14	14	13	12	11	9	7	5	2	22,612,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
Valor FC 2 Aeros 2	+0.2
Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8	+0.0
Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9	+0.0
Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
SS Balls vs Aeros	+0.6+0.1-1.0
Ball Busters vs Grass Stains	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Old Timers vs Valor FC	+0.0-0.1+0.0
Real Teal vs Average Joes	+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

32	-34						100
31		9	-	0	-	1	99	1
30		8	-	2	-	0	100	0
29		8	-	1	-	1	98	2	0
28		8	-	0	-	2	92	8	0
		7	-	3	-	0	96	4	0
27		7	-	2	-	1	90	10	0
26		7	-	1	-	2	78	21	1	0
		6	-	4	-	0	85	15	0
25		6	-	3	-	1	69	29	2	0
		7	-	0	-	3	62	35	3	0
24		6	-	2	-	2	50	43	7	0	0
		5	-	5	-	0	58	37	4	0
23		6	-	1	-	3	30	51	17	1	0
		5	-	4	-	1	35	50	15	1	0
22		5	-	3	-	2	17	48	30	5	0	0
		6	-	0	-	4	16	47	31	6	0	0
21		5	-	2	-	3	6	34	42	15	2	0	0
		4	-	5	-	1	7	37	41	13	1	0
20		5	-	1	-	4	1	17	42	31	7	0	0
		4	-	4	-	2	1	17	42	32	7	0	0
19		4	-	3	-	3	0	5	26	42	22	4	0	0
		5	-	0	-	5	0	5	27	42	21	4	0	0
		3	-	6	-	1	0	6	30	42	19	3	0
18		4	-	2	-	4	0	1	11	35	38	14	2	0	0
		3	-	5	-	2	0	1	10	35	39	14	1	0
17		3	-	4	-	3		0	2	15	39	34	10	1	0
		4	-	1	-	5	0	0	2	17	40	32	9	1	0
16		3	-	3	-	4		0	0	4	22	41	27	5	0	0
		4	-	0	-	6		0	0	4	24	42	25	5	0	0
		2	-	6	-	2		0	0	4	22	43	26	5	0
15		3	-	2	-	5			0	1	8	31	41	18	2	0
		2	-	5	-	3			0	0	6	29	43	19	2	0
14		2	-	4	-	4			0	0	1	11	38	39	10	0
		3	-	1	-	6			0	0	1	14	40	36	8	0
13		2	-	3	-	5				0	0	3	22	46	26	3
		3	-	0	-	7				0	0	4	25	46	23	2
		1	-	6	-	3					0	3	22	47	26	3
12		2	-	2	-	6					0	1	9	40	42	9
		1	-	5	-	4					0	0	8	37	45	10
11		1	-	4	-	5						0	2	22	53	23
		2	-	1	-	7						0	3	25	52	20
10		1	-	3	-	6						0	0	11	49	40
		2	-	0	-	8							0	11	50	38
9		1	-	2	-	7							0	4	39	57
8		1	-	1	-	8							0	1	26	73
7		0	-	3	-	7								0	15	85
6		0	-	2	-	8								0	7	92
5		0	-	1	-	9									2	98
4		0	-	0	-	10									0	100

Total:							12	14	14	13	12	11	9	7	5	2