Upper East Side Jacks Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Beat Zombies 19-18, playoff odds up 11.5 to 57.3%

27 points 9-0-0 9-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 2/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Jacks 19 Zombies 18	+10.9		+0.4
Dragsters 19 Rabid Beavers 18 (ot)	-1.2		-0.0
Cobbles 16 Bullies 36	-0.9		-0.0
Addicts 23 Virus 19	+0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 2/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Jacks vs Bullies	+18.7+1.7-6.2-14.3		+0.6+0.1-0.2-0.5
Cobbles vs Virus	-7.6-4.7-1.1+10.0		-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1
Dragsters vs Zombies	-0.8-0.6+1.0+1.7		-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1
Addicts vs Rabid Beavers	-0.7*-0.0+0.5+1.0		-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Jacks finish out the regular season. Explain

												100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

39	4	-	0	-	0	0		-	0	In		15	65	20						212,827
38	3	-	1	-	0	0		-	0	In		10	54	34	2	0				73,325
37	3	-	0	-	0	0		-	1	In		1	22	53	22	2				99,311
	2	-	2	-	0	0		-	0	In		1	22	53	22	2				9,555
36	3	-	0	-	0	1		-	0	100.0	%	0	4	40	46	10	0			1,142,607
	2	-	1	-	0	0		-	1	In		0	6	41	43	10				25,812
	1	-	3	-	0	0		-	0	In			9	49	37	6				590
35	2	-	1	-	0	1		-	0	98.9		0	1	19	51	28	1			299,425
	2	-	0	-	0	0		-	2	99.2			1	22	50	25	1			17,239
	1	-	2	-	0	0		-	1	98.8			1	18	48	32	1			2,251
	0	-	4	-	0	0		-	0	In				11	56	33				9
34	2	-	0	-	0	1		-	1	90.8			0	3	32	55	9			395,211
	1	-	2	-	0	1		-	0	92.5			0	4	32	57	7			25,816
	1	-	1	-	0	0		-	2	90.1				4	33	53	10			3,025
	0	-	3	-	0	0		-	1	83.3				2	23	58	17			48
33	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	0	81.8				0	18	64	18	0		2,278,453
	1	-	1	-	0	1		-	1	77.2				1	16	60	23	0		68,696
	1	-	0	-	0	0		-	3	75.1				0	12	63	25			1,247
	0	-	3	-	0	1		-	0	76.9				0	18	58	23			767
	0	-	2	-	0	0		-	2	69.2					17	52	31			130
32	1	-	1	-	0	2		-	0	48.2				0	4	44	51	1		396,075
	1	-	0	-	0	1		-	2	51.9				0	5	47	47	1		45,091
	0	-	2	-	0	1		-	1	47.7					2	45	52	1		3,087
	0	-	1	-	0	0		-	3	53.2					4	50	47			109
31	1	-	0	-	0	2		-	1	28.5					1	28	69	2		516,583
	0	-	2	-	0	2		-	0	33.1					1	32	65	2		17,236
	0	-	1	-	0	1		-	2	26.4					1	26	71	3		3,844
	0	-	0	-	0	0		-	4	23.1					3	21	74	3		39
30	1	-	0	-	0	3		-	0	22.0					0	22	75	3		1,985,664
	0	-	1	-	0	2		-	1	14.8					0	15	81	4		45,156
	0	-	0	-	0	1		-	3	12.4						12	84	4		1,668
29	0	-	1	-	0	3		-	0	2.6						3	76	21	0	172,947
	0	-	0	-	0	2		-	2	3.4						3	76	20	0	29,117
28	0	-	0	-	0	3		-	1	0.2						0	73	27	0	222,450
27	0	-	0	-	0	4		-	0	Out							67	33	0	642,147

Total:										57.3	%	0	3	8	15	31	38	5	0	8,737,557

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 2/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Jacks 19 Zombies 18	-0.6
Dragsters 19 Rabid Beavers 18 (ot)	+0.1
Rocketeers 20 Norsestars 21	+0.1
Cobbles 16 Bullies 36	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 2/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Jacks vs Bullies	-0.9-0.1+0.3+0.7
Cobbles vs Virus	+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.2
Dragsters vs Zombies	+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1
Enigma vs Norsestars	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Addicts vs Rabid Beavers	+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

39	4	-	0	-	0	0		-	0		15	0	65	0	20
38	3	-	1	-	0	0		-	0		10		54	0	34	2	0
37	3	-	0	-	0	0		-	1		1		22	0	53	22	2
	2	-	2	-	0	0		-	0		1		22	0	52	22	2
36	3	-	0	-	0	1		-	0		0		4		40	46	10	0	0
	2	-	1	-	0	0		-	1		0		6		41	43	10
	1	-	3	-	0	0		-	0				9		49	37	6
35	2	-	1	-	0	1		-	0		0		1		19	51	28	0	1	0
	2	-	0	-	0	0		-	2				1		22	50	25	0	1	0
	1	-	2	-	0	0		-	1				1		18	48	32	0	1	0
	0	-	4	-	0	0		-	0						11	56	33
34	2	-	0	-	0	1		-	1				0		3	32	55	0	9	0
	1	-	2	-	0	1		-	0				0		4	32	57	0	7	0
	1	-	1	-	0	0		-	2						4	33	53	0	9	0
	0	-	3	-	0	0		-	1						2	23	58		17
33	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	0						0	18	64	0	17	1
	1	-	1	-	0	1		-	1						1	16	60	1	21	1
	1	-	0	-	0	0		-	3						0	12	63	1	23	2
	0	-	3	-	0	1		-	0						0	18	58	1	21	1
	0	-	2	-	0	0		-	2							17	52	1	26	4
32	1	-	1	-	0	2		-	0						0	4	44	1	40	11	0
	1	-	0	-	0	1		-	2						0	5	47	1	37	10	0
	0	-	2	-	0	1		-	1							2	45	1	40	11	0
	0	-	1	-	0	0		-	3							4	50	1	37	9
31	1	-	0	-	0	2		-	1							1	28	0	51	20	1
	0	-	2	-	0	2		-	0							1	32		48	18	0
	0	-	1	-	0	1		-	2							1	26		51	22	1
	0	-	0	-	0	0		-	4							3	21		54	21	3
30	1	-	0	-	0	3		-	0							0	22		51	26	1	0
	0	-	1	-	0	2		-	1							0	15		55	29	1
	0	-	0	-	0	1		-	3								12		57	29	1
29	0	-	1	-	0	3		-	0								3		30	54	13	0
	0	-	0	-	0	2		-	2								3		29	54	13	0
28	0	-	0	-	0	3		-	1								0		24	57	18	0	0
27	0	-	0	-	0	4		-	0										19	57	24	0	0

Total:											0	0	3	0	8	15	31	0	25	15	3	0	0