Edmonton Emperors Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Lost to Enablers 25-31, playoff odds down 0.5 to 99.1%

40 points 13-0-0 4-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 2/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Emperors 25 Enablers 31	-1.2		-0.3
Enigma 37 Honey Badgers 33	+0.2		-0.0
Vipers 23 Riot 16			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 2/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Emperors vs Honey Badgers	InIn+0.1-1.7		+0.2-0.0-0.1-0.3
Enigma vs Norsestars	+0.1+0.2+0.2-0.3		-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Vipers vs Enablers	-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1		-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Emperors finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

50	-52										In		100								1,141,984	*
49		3	-	0	-	0	1		-	0	In		92	8							2,159,150
		2	-	1	-	0	0		-	1	In		100								49,051
		1	-	3	-	0	0		-	0	In		100								1,845
48		2	-	1	-	0	1		-	0	In		79	21							561,815
		2	-	0	-	0	0		-	2	In		84	16							17,580
		1	-	2	-	0	0		-	1	In		91	9							4,134
		0	-	4	-	0	0		-	0	In		100								49
47		2	-	0	-	0	1		-	1	In		67	33							403,530
		1	-	2	-	0	1		-	0	In		65	35							49,186
		1	-	1	-	0	0		-	2	In		76	24							3,074
		0	-	3	-	0	0		-	1	In		79	21							137
46		2	-	0	-	0	2		-	0	In		26	66	8						2,321,334
		1	-	1	-	0	1		-	1	In		37	59	4						70,311
		0	-	3	-	0	1		-	0	In		42	58							1,463
		1	-	0	-	0	0		-	3	In		40	60							630
		0	-	2	-	0	0		-	2	In		44	56							124
45		1	-	1	-	0	2		-	0	In		11	59	30						403,522
		1	-	0	-	0	1		-	2	In		12	65	22						22,086
		0	-	2	-	0	1		-	1	In		15	66	20						3,021
		0	-	1	-	0	0		-	3	In		21	65	15						62
44		1	-	0	-	0	2		-	1	In		5	51	44						252,758
		0	-	2	-	0	2		-	0	In		4	47	49						17,536
		0	-	1	-	0	1		-	2	In		6	58	35						1,975
		0	-	0	-	0	0		-	4	In		10	60	30						10
43		1	-	0	-	0	3		-	0	98.2	%	0	26	72	2					967,021
		0	-	1	-	0	2		-	1	99.2		1	31	67	1					21,990
		0	-	0	-	0	1		-	3	99.4		1	35	63	1					356
42		0	-	1	-	0	3		-	0	86.7		0	7	79	13					84,502
		0	-	0	-	0	2		-	2	92.0		0	12	80	8					5,725
41		0	-	0	-	0	3		-	1	78.5		0	5	73	22					43,833
40		0	-	0	-	0	4		-	0	71.4			1	71	29					127,763

Total:											99.1	%	53	31	15	1					8,737,557

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 2/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Emperors 25 Enablers 31	+0.6
Enigma 37 Honey Badgers 33	+0.1
Vipers 23 Riot 16	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 2/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Emperors vs Honey Badgers	-0.4-0.0+0.2+0.7
Enigma vs Norsestars	+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
Vipers vs Enablers	+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.3

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:											Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

50	-52										100
49		3	-	0	-	0	1		-	0	92		8
		2	-	1	-	0	0		-	1	100
		1	-	3	-	0	0		-	0	100
48		2	-	1	-	0	1		-	0	79		21
		2	-	0	-	0	0		-	2	84		16
		1	-	2	-	0	0		-	1	91		9
		0	-	4	-	0	0		-	0	100
47		2	-	0	-	0	1		-	1	67		33
		1	-	2	-	0	1		-	0	65		35
		1	-	1	-	0	0		-	2	76		24
		0	-	3	-	0	0		-	1	79		21
46		2	-	0	-	0	2		-	0	25	1	66		8
		1	-	1	-	0	1		-	1	35	2	59		4
		0	-	3	-	0	1		-	0	38	4	58
		1	-	0	-	0	0		-	3	39	1	60
		0	-	2	-	0	0		-	2	44	1	56
45		1	-	1	-	0	2		-	0	10	1	59		30
		1	-	0	-	0	1		-	2	12	1	65		22
		0	-	2	-	0	1		-	1	14	1	66		20
		0	-	1	-	0	0		-	3	19	2	65		15
44		1	-	0	-	0	2		-	1	5	1	51		44
		0	-	2	-	0	2		-	0	3	0	47		49
		0	-	1	-	0	1		-	2	6	1	58		35
		0	-	0	-	0	0		-	4	10		60		30
43		1	-	0	-	0	3		-	0	0	0	25	0	72				2
		0	-	1	-	0	2		-	1	1	0	31	0	67				1
		0	-	0	-	0	1		-	3	1	0	35	1	63				1
42		0	-	1	-	0	3		-	0	0	0	7	0	79				13
		0	-	0	-	0	2		-	2		0	11	1	80				8
41		0	-	0	-	0	3		-	1	0	0	5	0	73	0			22
40		0	-	0	-	0	4		-	0			0	0	68	3			29

Total:											53	0	31	0	15	0			1