Burrard Street Bullies Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Beat Cobbles 36-16, playoff odds up 22.6 to 93.6%

29 points 9-1-0 8-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 2/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cobbles 16 Bullies 36	+16.8		+0.8
Jacks 19 Zombies 18	-3.5		-0.1
Addicts 23 Virus 19	+0.5		-0.0
Dragsters 19 Rabid Beavers 18 (ot)	-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 2/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Jacks vs Bullies	-7.7-0.8+3.0+5.8		-0.8-0.2+0.2+0.6
Cobbles vs Virus	-0.8+0.1-0.5+1.0		-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Addicts vs Rabid Beavers	-0.3*-0.0+0.2+0.5		-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Dragsters vs Zombies	-0.2-0.2*-0.1+0.5		-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Bullies finish out the regular season. Explain

												100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

41	4	-	0	-	0	0		-	0	In		66	33	1						721,447
40	3	-	1	-	0	0		-	0	In		40	49	11	0					249,513
39	3	-	0	-	0	0		-	1	In		20	53	26	1					182,142
	2	-	2	-	0	0		-	0	In		21	52	26	1					32,932
38	3	-	0	-	0	1		-	0	In		6	39	46	9	0				2,094,819
	2	-	1	-	0	0		-	1	In		6	39	46	8					47,733
	1	-	3	-	0	0		-	0	In		7	43	43	6					1,915
37	2	-	1	-	0	1		-	0	In		1	18	54	27	0				545,752
	2	-	0	-	0	0		-	2	In		1	17	54	27	0				17,171
	1	-	2	-	0	0		-	1	In		1	16	54	29	0				3,963
	0	-	4	-	0	0		-	0	In		4	17	35	43					46
36	2	-	0	-	0	1		-	1	In		0	7	47	43	3				388,886
	1	-	2	-	0	1		-	0	In		0	6	47	44	3				47,524
	1	-	1	-	0	0		-	2	In		0	9	49	40	2				3,097
	0	-	3	-	0	0		-	1	In			10	43	46	1				132
35	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	0	99.9	%	0	1	22	64	13	0			2,235,570
	1	-	1	-	0	1		-	1	99.8		0	1	22	64	13	0			67,193
	0	-	3	-	0	1		-	0	99.6			1	25	64	9	0			1,372
	1	-	0	-	0	0		-	3	99.4		0	0	16	68	14	1			647
	0	-	2	-	0	0		-	2	In				18	68	14				129
34	1	-	1	-	0	2		-	0	97.6			0	6	55	37	2			387,189
	1	-	0	-	0	1		-	2	97.7			0	6	55	38	2			23,474
	0	-	2	-	0	1		-	1	97.3				4	51	42	3			2,930
	0	-	1	-	0	0		-	3	98.5				5	56	38	2			66
33	1	-	0	-	0	2		-	1	89.2				2	35	53	11	0		269,489
	0	-	2	-	0	2		-	0	88.9				1	31	56	11	0		16,816
	0	-	1	-	0	1		-	2	91.1				2	38	52	9			2,029
	0	-	0	-	0	0		-	4	In					64	36				11
32	1	-	0	-	0	3		-	0	76.4				0	15	61	23	1		1,034,811
	0	-	1	-	0	2		-	1	73.8				0	14	59	25	1		23,363
	0	-	0	-	0	1		-	3	69.1					7	62	30	1		444
31	0	-	1	-	0	3		-	0	44.7					2	42	52	4		90,089
	0	-	0	-	0	2		-	2	45.3					3	43	51	4		7,978
30	0	-	0	-	0	3		-	1	19.5					0	19	61	20	0	60,949
29	0	-	0	-	0	4		-	0	9.3						9	57	33	0	175,936

Total:										93.6	%	9	17	24	29	15	5	1	0	8,737,557

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 2/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cobbles 16 Bullies 36	-1.2
Jacks 19 Zombies 18	+0.1
Addicts 23 Virus 19	+0.0
Dragsters 19 Rabid Beavers 18 (ot)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 2/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Jacks vs Bullies	+1.1+0.4-0.2-0.9
Dragsters vs Zombies	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.3
Addicts vs Rabid Beavers	+0.0-0.2-0.0-0.1
Cobbles vs Virus	+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

41	4	-	0	-	0	0		-	0	0	66	0	32	0	1
40	3	-	1	-	0	0		-	0		40	0	48	2	9	0
39	3	-	0	-	0	0		-	1		20	0	53	1	25	1
	2	-	2	-	0	0		-	0		21		52	0	25	1
38	3	-	0	-	0	1		-	0		6		39	0	46	9	0
	2	-	1	-	0	0		-	1		6		39	0	46	8
	1	-	3	-	0	0		-	0		7		43	0	43	6
37	2	-	1	-	0	1		-	0		1		18	0	53	27	0
	2	-	0	-	0	0		-	2		1		17	0	54	27	0
	1	-	2	-	0	0		-	1		1		16	0	53	29	0
	0	-	4	-	0	0		-	0		4		17		35	43
36	2	-	0	-	0	1		-	1		0		7		47	43	3
	1	-	2	-	0	1		-	0		0		6		47	44	3
	1	-	1	-	0	0		-	2		0		9		49	40	2
	0	-	3	-	0	0		-	1				10		43	46	1
35	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	0		0		1		22	64	13	0	0	0
	1	-	1	-	0	1		-	1		0		1		22	64	13	0	0	0
	0	-	3	-	0	1		-	0				1		25	64	9	0	0
	1	-	0	-	0	0		-	3		0		0		16	68	14	0	0
	0	-	2	-	0	0		-	2						18	68	14
34	1	-	1	-	0	2		-	0				0		6	55	37	0	2	0
	1	-	0	-	0	1		-	2				0		6	55	38	0	2	0
	0	-	2	-	0	1		-	1						4	51	42	0	2	0
	0	-	1	-	0	0		-	3						5	56	38		2
33	1	-	0	-	0	2		-	1						2	35	53	0	10	1	0
	0	-	2	-	0	2		-	0						1	31	56	0	10	1
	0	-	1	-	0	1		-	2						2	38	52	0	8	1
	0	-	0	-	0	0		-	4							64	36
32	1	-	0	-	0	3		-	0						0	15	61	0	18	5	0
	0	-	1	-	0	2		-	1						0	14	59	0	20	5	0
	0	-	0	-	0	1		-	3							7	62	0	23	8	0
31	0	-	1	-	0	3		-	0							2	42	1	38	16	1
	0	-	0	-	0	2		-	2							3	43	0	38	15	1
30	0	-	0	-	0	3		-	1							0	19		42	32	6	0	0
29	0	-	0	-	0	4		-	0								9		22	44	23	0	0

Total:										0	9	0	17	0	24	29	15	0	4	2	1	0	0