Surrey Addicts Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Beat Virus 23-19, playoff odds up 4.6 to 97%

30 points 10-0-0 8-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 2/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Addicts 23 Virus 19	+5.0		+0.4
Jacks 19 Zombies 18	-1.2		-0.0
Dragsters 19 Rabid Beavers 18 (ot)	-0.2		-0.1
Cobbles 16 Bullies 36	-0.2		-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 2/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Addicts vs Rabid Beavers	+2.2*-0.0-1.4-3.2		+0.5+0.0-0.5-0.7
Jacks vs Bullies	-1.0-1.0-0.6+0.9		+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1
Cobbles vs Virus	-0.8-0.4*-0.1+1.0		-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dragsters vs Zombies	-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2		-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Addicts finish out the regular season. Explain

												100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

42	4	-	0	-	0	0		-	0	In		85	15							967,490
41	3	-	1	-	0	0		-	0	In		69	30	1						335,734
40	3	-	0	-	0	0		-	1	In		47	44	8	0					200,001
	2	-	2	-	0	0		-	0	In		43	48	9	0					43,699
39	3	-	0	-	0	1		-	0	In		18	56	24	2					2,303,864
	2	-	1	-	0	0		-	1	In		22	55	22	1					52,539
	1	-	3	-	0	0		-	0	In		24	56	18	1					2,579
38	2	-	1	-	0	1		-	0	In		7	40	42	11	0				599,465
	2	-	0	-	0	0		-	2	In		6	42	41	11	0				15,495
	1	-	2	-	0	0		-	1	In		7	39	42	12	0				4,635
	0	-	4	-	0	0		-	0	In		6	21	62	11					63
37	2	-	0	-	0	1		-	1	In		2	21	51	25	1				357,567
	1	-	2	-	0	1		-	0	In		1	20	52	26	1				52,564
	1	-	1	-	0	0		-	2	In		1	22	50	26	1				2,690
	0	-	3	-	0	0		-	1	In		2	17	49	31	1				140
36	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	0	100.0	%	0	9	48	40	3	0			2,055,723
	1	-	1	-	0	1		-	1	In		0	8	47	41	4				61,654
	0	-	3	-	0	1		-	0	In		0	7	48	40	4				1,541
	1	-	0	-	0	0		-	3	In			6	48	44	3				563
	0	-	2	-	0	0		-	2	In			8	43	45	4				120
35	1	-	1	-	0	2		-	0	99.0		0	1	16	55	27	1			357,182
	1	-	0	-	0	1		-	2	99.2			1	19	56	23	1			18,267
	0	-	2	-	0	1		-	1	99.3			0	16	57	26	1			2,819
	0	-	1	-	0	0		-	3	98.0				18	64	16	2			50
34	1	-	0	-	0	2		-	1	94.9			0	6	43	46	5			212,647
	0	-	2	-	0	2		-	0	96.9			0	7	49	41	3			15,501
	0	-	1	-	0	1		-	2	95.2			0	5	43	48	5			1,565
	0	-	0	-	0	0		-	4	77.8				22	11	44	22			9
33	1	-	0	-	0	3		-	0	90.2				3	34	53	10	0		812,834
	0	-	1	-	0	2		-	1	85.3				2	27	57	15	0		18,482
	0	-	0	-	0	1		-	3	85.1				2	26	57	15			329
32	0	-	1	-	0	3		-	0	48.3				0	3	45	50	1		70,707
	0	-	0	-	0	2		-	2	53.4					6	48	46	1		5,364
31	0	-	0	-	0	3		-	1	27.8					0	27	70	3		41,787
30	0	-	0	-	0	4		-	0	18.8					0	19	77	5		121,888

Total:										97.0	%	19	25	25	19	9	3	0		8,737,557

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 2/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Addicts 23 Virus 19	-0.6
Dragsters 19 Rabid Beavers 18 (ot)	+0.1
Jacks 19 Zombies 18	+0.1
Cobbles 16 Bullies 36	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Week of 2/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Addicts vs Rabid Beavers	-0.8-0.0+0.7+1.2
Dragsters vs Zombies	+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.3
Jacks vs Bullies	-0.2+0.0+0.1+0.1
Cobbles vs Virus	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:										Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT	-	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

42	4	-	0	-	0	0		-	0	0	85	0	15
41	3	-	1	-	0	0		-	0		69	0	30	0	1
40	3	-	0	-	0	0		-	1		47	0	44	1	7	0
	2	-	2	-	0	0		-	0		43	0	48	1	8	0
39	3	-	0	-	0	1		-	0		18	0	56	0	23	2
	2	-	1	-	0	0		-	1		22		55	0	22	1
	1	-	3	-	0	0		-	0		24		56	0	18	1
38	2	-	1	-	0	1		-	0		7		40	0	41	11	0
	2	-	0	-	0	0		-	2		6		42	0	41	11	0
	1	-	2	-	0	0		-	1		7		39	1	42	12	0
	0	-	4	-	0	0		-	0		6		21		62	11
37	2	-	0	-	0	1		-	1		2		21	0	51	25	1
	1	-	2	-	0	1		-	0		1		20	0	51	26	1
	1	-	1	-	0	0		-	2		1		22	0	50	26	1
	0	-	3	-	0	0		-	1		2		17		49	31	1
36	2	-	0	-	0	2		-	0		0		9	0	48	40	3	0	0
	1	-	1	-	0	1		-	1		0		8		47	41	4
	0	-	3	-	0	1		-	0		0		7		48	40	4
	1	-	0	-	0	0		-	3				6		48	44	3
	0	-	2	-	0	0		-	2				8		43	45	4
35	1	-	1	-	0	2		-	0		0		1		16	55	27	0	1
	1	-	0	-	0	1		-	2				1		19	56	23	0	1
	0	-	2	-	0	1		-	1				0		16	57	26	0	1
	0	-	1	-	0	0		-	3						18	64	16		2
34	1	-	0	-	0	2		-	1				0		6	43	46	1	4	0
	0	-	2	-	0	2		-	0				0		7	49	41	1	3	0
	0	-	1	-	0	1		-	2				0		5	43	48	1	4	0
	0	-	0	-	0	0		-	4						22	11	44		22
33	1	-	0	-	0	3		-	0						3	34	53	0	9	0	0
	0	-	1	-	0	2		-	1						2	27	57	1	14	1
	0	-	0	-	0	1		-	3						2	26	57	1	14	0
32	0	-	1	-	0	3		-	0						0	3	45	1	47	4	0
	0	-	0	-	0	2		-	2							6	48	1	42	3	0
31	0	-	0	-	0	3		-	1							0	27	1	54	17	1
30	0	-	0	-	0	4		-	0							0	19		56	24	1	0

Total:										0	19	0	25	0	25	19	9	0	2	0	0	0