SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sometimes I
forget the point

Denver Frost Playoff Chances 2011

Beat New York 92-63, playoff odds up 15.2 to 43.4%

6-0-5 .545

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
New York 63 Denver 92	+10.5		+0.7
Smyrna 87 Philly 79	+5.3		+0.2
Halifax 74 Milwaukee 85	+4.5		+0.1
Detroit 84 Pittsburgh 50	-3.5		-0.2
Dover 115 Kansas City 57	-1.4		-0.0
Atlanta 75 Chicago 112	+0.4		+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 11/28	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta vs Denver	-23.0+8.4+14.5		-0.8+0.3+0.5
Chicago vs Detroit	+3.7+1.6-16.2		+0.0+0.0-0.2
Smyrna vs Dover	+5.0+1.1-1.0		+0.2+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Philly	+1.7+1.2-4.3		+0.1+0.1-0.2
New York vs Halifax	+2.7+3.5-1.8		+0.1+0.1-0.1
Milwaukee vs Kansas City	+0.1*-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Denver finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

9		3	-	0	-	0	98.0	%		2	71	25	2								1,941,968
8	.5	2	-	1	-	0	93.9			1	27	67	6	0							157,279
8		2	-	0	-	1	48.3			0	10	38	44	8	0						4,398,077
		1	-	2	-	0	47.5				9	38	44	8	0						4,099
7	.5	1	-	1	-	1	37.6				1	37	51	11	0	0					219,643
		0	-	3	-	0	39.1					39	57	4							23
7		1	-	0	-	2	2.8				0	3	24	49	20	4	0				2,737,311
		0	-	2	-	1	3.8					4	29	48	16	3	0				2,715
6	.5	0	-	1	-	2	0.5					0	12	43	33	10	1				63,113
6		0	-	0	-	3	0.0					0	0	6	29	42	22	0			462,291

Total:							43.4	%		0	19	24	27	18	7	3	1	0			9,986,519

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs