Cincinnati Reds Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Beat Pirates 960-915, playoff odds up 7 to 28.4%
3-2   .600

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Reds 960 Pirates 915 +6.8
+0.9
Cubs 1069 Rockies 1166 +1.2
Cardinals 518 Brewers 1308 -1.1
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 5/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Mets vs Reds-7.7+7.7
-0.9+0.9
Phillies vs Cubs+1.5-1.5
Nationals vs Brewers+1.5-1.5
Dodgers vs Tigers-0.5+0.5
-0.1+0.1
Padres vs Twins-0.4+0.4
-0.1+0.1
Diamondbacks vs Indians-0.3+0.3
Rockies vs White Sox-0.3+0.3
-0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
18-19In100424*
1714-2In98112,286
1613-3100.0%90604010,928
1512-499.66917113035,654
1411-596.5352942830084,823
1310-680.1823123717300156,445
129-738.606132033217100222,632
118-87.10052122629186100250,619
107-90.801003112530218200222,086
96-100.0000210243222810155,728
85-110.0000312293418385,396
74-12Out001726432335,599
63-13Out006345910,901
52-14Out015842,326
41-15Out595329
30-16Out199124
Total:28.4%6651110109887654321,276,300

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/6100.0*Lottery seed
Reds 960 Pirates 915 -1.8
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 5/13100.0*Lottery seed
Mets vs Reds+1.8-1.8
Nationals vs Brewers-0.1+0.1
Phillies vs Cubs-0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
1916-0100
1815-1982
1714-29370
1613-37522200
1512-44240153000
1411-510273220710030
1310-603112023166116400
129-70001410149182114620000
118-8000151511172017126310000
107-900100001491519191510520000
96-10000026121821191362100
85-11000002715232518820
74-12000392332258
63-13003154141
52-14022375
41-150792
30-16100
Total:344444435555444444333333222211