Tampa Bay Rays Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Lost to Red Sox 842-973, playoff odds down 9.9 to 52.7%
4-1   .800

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Rays 842 Red Sox 973 -9.3
-0.8
Blue Jays 1197 White Sox 1031 -1.3
-0.1
Yankees 926 Orioles 920 +0.6
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 5/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Rays vs Athletics+9.1-9.1
+0.8-0.8
Blue Jays vs Rangers-1.5+1.5
-0.1+0.1
Red Sox vs Astros-1.2+1.2
-0.1+0.1
Orioles vs Mariners-0.9+0.9
Yankees vs Angels-0.7+0.7
Dodgers vs Tigers+0.3-0.3
Rockies vs White Sox+0.3-0.3
Giants vs Royals+0.2-0.2
Padres vs Twins+0.2-0.2
Diamondbacks vs Indians+0.2-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Rays finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
19-20In100421*
1814-2In10002,275
1713-3In982010,965
1612-4In9270035,664
1511-5100.0%752113085,546
1410-699.3434061010155,569
139-790.8113821218100223,224
128-855.5112291423155100250,302
117-916.701141820251992000222,721
106-102.9030016162525166100155,607
95-110.200013122430218184,797
84-120.0000031331361635,601
73-13Out019365410,912
62-14Out0114852,270
51-15Out496300
40-16Out100126
Total:52.7%1616138776554432211,276,300

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/6100.0*Lottery seed
Rays 842 Red Sox 973 +1.4
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 5/13100.0*Lottery seed
Rays vs Athletics-1.6+1.6
Blue Jays vs Rangers+0.1-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
2016-0100
1915-11000
1814-2982
1713-39460
1612-47820200
1511-54739122000
1410-613323116510010
139-716162524145181000
128-80002816191017158310000
117-90041327141918137310000
106-1003000261218201711631000
95-1100013815212216941000
84-12000013817242415610
73-13003112433236
62-14003174435
51-1532275
40-16694
Total:888766555444333332222211111000