Pittsburgh Pirates Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Lost to Reds 915-960, playoff odds down 4.3 to 6.1%
1-4   .200

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Reds 960 Pirates 915 -4.4
-0.9
Cubs 1069 Rockies 1166 +0.7
Cardinals 518 Brewers 1308 -0.6
Phillies 1072 Rangers 1358 +0.2
+0.1
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 5/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Marlins vs Pirates-2.7+2.7
-0.8+0.8
Nationals vs Brewers+0.5-0.5
Phillies vs Cubs+0.5-0.5
Mets vs Reds+0.3-0.3
Dodgers vs Tigers-0.2+0.2
Padres vs Twins-0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1
Rockies vs White Sox-0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1
Diamondbacks vs Indians-0.1+0.1
Giants vs Royals-0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Pirates finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
1716-0In9461124
1615-1In87112332
1514-299.6%642301302,266
1413-396.031334274010,931
1312-476.962212371940035,307
1211-533.90511193323810085,118
1110-64.90311024302182000155,852
109-70.400002922302310200222,447
98-80.0000282132261020250,420
87-90.00002102736214222,652
76-10Out005244426156,272
65-11Out005336185,222
54-12Out01148635,722
43-13Out049610,892
32-14Out1992,310
21-15Out0100311
10-16Out100122
Total:6.1%112345678910111212111,276,300
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/6100.0*Lottery seed
Reds 960 Pirates 915 +1.7
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 5/13100.0*Lottery seed
Marlins vs Pirates+1.6-1.6

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
1716-0982
1615-173243
1514-23443194000
1413-362232241020040
1312-4016142321102166100
1211-5000261312919191251000
1110-6001401491520201473100
109-7000000136121721191362000
98-80000025101722211472000
87-900001371625251661
76-100001516313314
65-11002113750
54-120011881
43-130595
32-14199
21-150100
10-16100
Total:000111111222233333444456667789