Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.7 to 62%

78 points 34 26-10

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	+1.5		+0.0
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)	*+0.4
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	-0.3		+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Boston	+11.8+10.0+7.2-2.7-3.1-12.5		+0.7+0.5+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

102	12	0		-	0	In		0.1	%	47	46	7	0													831
101	11	0		-	1	In		No		25	55	19	1	0												888
100	11	1		-	0	In		No		13	50	31	5	0												6,457
	10	0		-	2	In		No		13	43	34	9	1												560
99	10	1		-	1	In		No		4	30	46	18	2		0										8,812	*
98	10	2		-	0	In		No		1	18	43	30	6	0	1										32,171
	9	1		-	2	In		No		1	13	40	36	9	0	1										5,151	*
97	9	2		-	1	In		No		0	5	27	43	20	1	4	0									38,042
	8	1		-	3	In		No		0	3	20	45	25	2	5	0									1,711	*
96	9	3		-	0	In		No		0	1	14	38	33	3	10	0									94,885
	8	2		-	2	In		No			1	10	36	36	5	12	0									19,918
	7	1		-	4	In		No			0	6	29	41	6	18	0									417	*
95	8	3		-	1	100.0	%	No			0	3	21	40	10	24	2	0								100,220
	7	2		-	3	In		No			0	2	16	39	12	28	2									6,272	*
94	8	4		-	0	99.9		No			0	1	9	32	14	38	5	0								188,205
	7	3		-	2	99.8		No			0	0	7	28	16	41	8	0								46,572
	6	2		-	4	99.3		No				0	4	25	17	44	10	1								1,278	*
93	7	4		-	1	98.9		No				0	2	15	15	49	18	1	0	0						175,406
	6	3		-	3	98.2		No				0	1	12	15	48	22	2	0							12,926	*
92	7	5		-	0	95.5		No				0	0	6	11	47	31	4	0	0						265,507
	6	4		-	2	92.8		No				0	0	4	10	42	37	7	0	0						72,438
	5	3		-	4	90.1		No					0	2	7	39	41	9	0							2,234	*
91	6	5		-	1	81.3		No					0	1	5	30	46	17	2	0	0					218,295
	5	4		-	3	75.2		No					0	1	4	24	46	21	3	0						16,952
	4	3		-	5	75.4		No						1	2	21	51	21	3	0						284
90	6	6		-	0	64.4		No					0	0	2	17	45	28	7	1	0					274,322
	5	5		-	2	54.4		No						0	1	12	41	35	10	1	0					76,977
	4	4		-	4	46.2		No							1	8	37	38	14	1	0					2,485	*
89	5	6		-	1	33.3		No						0	0	5	28	41	21	4	0	0				192,176
	4	5		-	3	26.9		No						0	0	3	23	41	26	6	0	0				15,157	*
88	5	7		-	0	17.7		No						0	0	2	16	38	33	10	1	0				206,567
	4	6		-	2	11.3		No							0	1	11	34	38	14	2	0				55,930
	3	5		-	4	7.9		No								0	8	31	42	17	2	0				1,731	*
87	4	7		-	1	4.0		No							0	0	4	22	41	27	6	0				121,199
	3	6		-	3	2.4		No								0	2	17	41	31	8	1				8,904	*
86	4	8		-	0	1.2		No							0	0	1	11	34	37	14	1	0			114,686
	3	7		-	2	0.6		No								0	1	7	31	41	18	2	0			28,571
	2	6		-	4	0.2		No									0	6	27	44	21	2				814	*
85	3	8		-	1	0.1		No									0	2	18	41	32	6	0			53,140
	2	7		-	3	0.0		No									0	1	13	41	36	8	0			3,454	*
84	3	9		-	0	0.0		No									0	1	9	33	43	14	0	0		44,895
	2	8		-	2	Out		No										0	6	30	45	19	1			9,515	*
83	2	9		-	1	Out		No										0	2	16	45	33	3	0		16,027
	1	8		-	3	Out		No										0	1	14	44	36	5	0		751	*
82	2	10		-	0	Out		No										0	1	7	36	46	10	0		11,746
	1	9		-	2	Out		No											0	6	30	50	12	1		1,852	*
81	1	10		-	1	Out		No											0	1	18	51	27	3	0	2,872	*
80	1	11		-	0	Out		No												0	7	41	40	11	1	1,951	*
79	0	11		-	1	Out		No													2	18	44	31	5	217
78	0	12		-	0	Out		No													0	10	38	38	14	349

Total:						62.0	%	0.0	%	0	1	2	5	8	5	20	21	15	11	7	3	1	0	0	0	2,562,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto vs Boston	-1.1-0.9-0.7+0.2+0.3+1.1
Edmonton vs Los Angeles	+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

102	12	0		-	0	0	4	19	39	26	10	2	0
101	11	0		-	1		1	5	25	36	24	7	1
100	11	1		-	0		0	1	9	27	34	21	7	1	0
	10	0		-	2			1	10	22	32	23	9	2	0
99	10	1		-	1			0	1	9	26	32	23	7	1	0	0
98	10	2		-	0			0	0	2	10	26	32	21	7	1	0	0
	9	1		-	2				0	1	8	23	33	24	9	2	0	0
97	9	2		-	1				0	0	1	8	22	32	24	9	2	0	0
	8	1		-	3					0	1	6	17	34	27	12	3	0
96	9	3		-	0					0	0	2	8	22	31	24	10	2	0	0
	8	2		-	2						0	1	6	19	31	27	12	3	0	0
	7	1		-	4								4	17	26	31	16	6	1	0
95	8	3		-	1							0	1	5	17	30	28	14	4	0	0	0
	7	2		-	3							0	1	4	15	29	30	16	5	1	0
94	8	4		-	0							0	0	1	6	18	30	28	14	3	0	0	0
	7	3		-	2								0	1	4	14	28	30	17	5	1	0	0
	6	2		-	4									0	3	10	25	33	20	6	1	1	0
93	7	4		-	1									0	0	3	14	29	32	17	4	1	0	0
	6	3		-	3									0	0	3	11	27	33	20	5	1	0	0
92	7	5		-	0									0	0	1	4	17	33	30	11	3	2	0	0
	6	4		-	2										0	0	3	13	30	32	15	4	3	0	0	0
	5	3		-	4											0	2	10	24	36	18	5	4	0
91	6	5		-	1										0	0	0	4	16	33	28	7	10	2	0	0
	5	4		-	3											0	0	2	13	30	30	9	13	3	0	0
	4	3		-	5													4	11	30	31	10	12	2	0
90	6	6		-	0											0	0	1	7	24	33	8	20	7	1	0	0
	5	5		-	2											0	0	0	4	18	32	9	25	10	2	0	0
	4	4		-	4													0	3	13	30	9	29	13	3	0
89	5	6		-	1												0	0	1	8	25	4	29	24	8	1	0	0
	4	5		-	3													0	0	6	21	4	30	27	10	2	0	0
88	5	7		-	0													0	0	3	15	2	23	33	19	5	1	0
	4	6		-	2														0	1	10	1	21	35	24	7	1	0
	3	5		-	4														0	1	7	1	19	34	27	9	1	0
87	4	7		-	1														0	0	4	0	9	28	34	19	5	1	0
	3	6		-	3															0	2	0	7	26	35	23	6	1	0
86	4	8		-	0														0	0	1	0	3	16	33	31	14	3	0
	3	7		-	2															0	1		2	12	30	34	17	4	0
	2	6		-	4																0		1	10	28	36	19	5	0
85	3	8		-	1															0	0		0	4	17	34	31	12	2	0
	2	7		-	3																0		0	2	13	32	33	16	2	0
84	3	9		-	0																0		0	1	7	24	37	25	7	0	0	0
	2	8		-	2																			1	5	19	35	30	9	1
83	2	9		-	1																			0	1	7	26	37	23	4	0
	1	8		-	3																				1	7	22	36	27	7	1
82	2	10		-	0																			0	0	2	13	33	35	14	2	0
	1	9		-	2																				0	1	9	30	37	19	3	0
81	1	10		-	1																					0	2	16	37	32	12	1	0
80	1	11		-	0																						1	5	22	36	26	8	2
79	0	11		-	1																								9	18	35	28	10	0
78	0	12		-	0																								1	9	22	36	23	7	1

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	13	13	3	9	9	7	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0