Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat Ottawa 3-1, playoff odds up 3.7 to 9.5%

75 points 34 31-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	+3.2		+0.4
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	+0.4
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)	*-0.4		*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Boston	*+0.0-1.2-0.9-0.8-0.9+0.2		-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Detroit vs Buffalo	-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

95	10	0		-	0	In		No		1	10	37	35	4	12	1									2,724
94	9	0		-	1	99.7	%	No		0	2	15	37	10	29	6	0								3,026
93	9	1		-	0	98.2		No			0	4	22	13	42	17	2	0							22,200
	8	0		-	2	97.7		No			0	3	17	13	45	20	2	0							1,559
92	8	1		-	1	90.3		No			0	1	7	9	39	34	9	1	0						23,359
	7	0		-	3	86.4		No				0	5	7	35	39	12	2							501
91	8	2		-	0	73.7		No				0	1	4	25	43	22	4	0						88,163
	7	1		-	2	70.2		No				0	1	3	23	43	25	5	0						10,709
	6	0		-	4	60.6		No							16	45	33	5	2						109
90	7	2		-	1	47.8		No				0	0	1	11	36	37	13	2	0					82,055
	6	1		-	3	38.6		No						1	7	31	41	18	2	0					3,000
	5	0		-	5	55.6		No							22	33	22	22							9
89	7	3		-	0	23.8		No					0	0	3	21	41	28	7	0	0				206,387
	6	2		-	2	21.0		No					0	0	2	18	40	31	8	1					33,587
	5	1		-	4	14.3		No						0	2	12	39	32	13	1					524	*
88	6	3		-	1	8.5		No						0	1	8	30	40	19	3	0				169,236
	5	2		-	3	5.4		No						0	0	5	28	41	23	3	0				7,872
	4	1		-	5	5.6		No							1	4	25	51	18						71
87	6	4		-	0	2.1		No						0	0	2	15	40	34	8	0				319,533
	5	3		-	2	1.8		No						0	0	2	14	39	36	9	0				59,088
	4	2		-	4	0.6		No								1	8	43	39	10	0				1,087	*
86	5	4		-	1	0.3		No						0	0	0	5	27	44	21	1	0			224,319
	4	3		-	3	0.2		No								0	4	26	45	23	2	0			11,662
	3	2		-	5	Out		No									1	27	54	16	2				98
85	5	5		-	0	0.0		No								0	1	14	44	36	5	0			338,422
	4	4		-	2	0.0		No								0	1	14	44	36	5	0			65,458
	3	3		-	4	Out		No									1	10	42	40	7				1,367	*
84	4	5		-	1	0.0		No								0	0	5	31	50	14	0	0		198,540
	3	4		-	3	Out		No									0	5	29	50	16	0			10,293
	2	3		-	5	Out		No										3	26	56	15				72	*
83	4	6		-	0	0.0		No								0	0	1	19	53	26	1	0		248,922
	3	5		-	2	Out		No									0	1	18	52	28	2	0		46,810
	2	4		-	4	Out		No										0	14	51	32	2			891	*
82	3	6		-	1	Out		No										0	7	43	43	7	0		116,188
	2	5		-	3	Out		No										0	6	40	44	9	0		5,373
	1	4		-	5	Out		No											3	19	69	9			32	*
81	3	7		-	0	Out		No										0	3	29	51	16	1	0	125,105
	2	6		-	2	Out		No										0	2	26	50	20	2	0	20,532
	1	5		-	4	Out		No											0	24	46	25	4		312
80	2	7		-	1	Out		No											0	13	47	34	6	0	44,458
	1	6		-	3	Out		No											0	10	46	36	7	0	1,610	*
79	2	8		-	0	Out		No											0	6	35	44	15	1	41,616
	1	7		-	2	Out		No												4	30	45	19	2	5,179
	0	6		-	4	Out		No													23	43	31	3	35
78	1	8		-	1	Out		No											0	1	16	44	33	6	9,780
	0	7		-	3	Out		No												2	10	37	40	12	182
77	1	9		-	0	Out		No												0	7	36	44	13	8,220
	0	8		-	2	Out		No												0	4	28	49	19	534
76	0	9		-	1	Out		No													1	17	50	32	975
75	0	10		-	0	Out		No													0	9	44	46	936

Total:						9.5	%	No		0	0	0	0	0	2	6	11	17	23	23	12	3	1	0	2,562,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	-0.7
Calgary 2 Los Angeles 4	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dallas vs San Jose	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto vs Boston	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

95	10	0		-	0							1	3	14	28	30	17	6	1	0
94	9	0		-	1							0	0	2	10	23	30	23	9	2	0	0
93	9	1		-	0								0	0	1	8	21	31	24	10	2	2	0	0
	8	0		-	2									0	1	4	17	31	27	14	3	2	0
92	8	1		-	1										0	1	6	18	30	26	9	6	3	0	0
	7	0		-	3											1	4	14	27	30	11	9	4	1
91	8	2		-	0										0	0	1	5	18	30	20	10	13	3	0	0
	7	1		-	2											0	0	4	16	28	21	11	15	4	0	0
	6	0		-	4														9	28	24	14	21	4	1
90	7	2		-	1											0	0	1	5	18	24	10	28	12	2	0	0
	6	1		-	3													0	3	14	22	10	31	17	3	0
	5	0		-	5														11	11	33		33	11
89	7	3		-	0													0	1	6	16	5	31	28	11	2	0	0
	6	2		-	2													0	1	5	15	4	30	30	12	2	0
	5	1		-	4														1	3	11	3	31	33	15	3	1
88	6	3		-	1													0	0	1	7	2	20	35	26	8	1	0
	5	2		-	3														0	1	5	1	19	34	29	10	1	0
	4	1		-	5															3	3		17	37	30	11
87	6	4		-	0														0	0	2	0	7	26	36	23	5	0	0
	5	3		-	2															0	2	0	6	24	37	24	6	1	0
	4	2		-	4															0	0	0	4	23	38	27	7	1
86	5	4		-	1															0	0	0	2	11	31	36	17	3	0	0
	4	3		-	3															0	0		1	9	29	37	19	3	0
	3	2		-	5																			12	22	41	19	5
85	5	5		-	0																0	0	0	3	16	37	33	10	1	0
	4	4		-	2																0		0	3	15	36	34	11	1	0
	3	3		-	4																			2	12	33	38	13	2	0
84	4	5		-	1																0		0	0	5	23	40	25	6	0	0
	3	4		-	3																		0	0	4	22	40	27	7	0
	2	3		-	5																				1	18	43	35	3
83	4	6		-	0																0			0	1	10	33	38	16	2	0	0
	3	5		-	2																			0	1	9	32	39	17	2	0	0
	2	4		-	4																				0	8	29	39	21	2	0
82	3	6		-	1																			0	0	2	17	38	32	10	1	0	0
	2	5		-	3																				0	2	15	36	33	12	2	0
	1	4		-	5																						6	44	28	22
81	3	7		-	0																				0	0	6	26	40	22	5	1	0	0
	2	6		-	2																				0	0	5	24	39	24	7	1	0
	1	5		-	4																						5	21	37	27	10	2
80	2	7		-	1																					0	1	9	29	36	19	5	1	0
	1	6		-	3																					0	1	7	27	37	20	6	1	0
79	2	8		-	0																						0	3	16	33	31	13	3	0	0
	1	7		-	2																						0	2	13	31	33	16	4	0
	0	6		-	4																								3	31	31	29	6
78	1	8		-	1																						0	0	3	16	32	31	14	3	0
	0	7		-	3																						1		3	13	27	32	20	4
77	1	9		-	0																							0	1	6	22	34	26	9	1
	0	8		-	2																								0	4	19	36	29	10	1
76	0	9		-	1																								0	0	6	22	37	27	7
75	0	10		-	0																									0	2	14	32	36	15

Total:												0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	1	7	11	14	16	16	12	7	3	1	1	0	0	0