Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Beat Chicago 4-2, playoff odds up 0.6 to 99.4%

90 points 39 20-12

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 2 Colorado 4	+0.7		+2.6		+0.4
Winnipeg 4 Minnesota 2	-0.3				+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1			-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Nashville vs Arizona			+1.3+0.5+0.3-0.6-1.1-1.2		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs San Jose			-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1		-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

112	11	0		-	0	In		96.0	%	96	4															1,488
111	10	0		-	1	In		91.5		92	8	0														1,552
110	10	1		-	0	In		84.3		85	15	1														12,089
	9	0		-	2	In		80.6		81	19	0														921
109	9	1		-	1	In		71.8		73	25	2														14,194
	8	0		-	3	In		70.1		71	28	1														338
108	9	2		-	0	In		57.8		60	35	5	0													53,324
	8	1		-	2	In		54.3		56	38	5	0													7,561	*
107	8	2		-	1	In		38.3		41	46	13	0													56,431
	7	1		-	3	In		36.7		40	45	15	0													2,425	*
106	8	3		-	0	In		24.0		27	49	23	1	0												142,267
	7	2		-	2	In		20.9		25	49	25	1	0												26,536
	6	1		-	4	In		17.0		22	49	28	1													487
105	7	3		-	1	In		10.5		14	45	39	2	0												133,346
	6	2		-	3	In		9.1		12	44	41	3	0												7,280	*
104	7	4		-	0	In		4.2		7	35	51	7	0		0										249,794
	6	3		-	2	In		3.2		5	33	53	8	0												54,480
	5	2		-	4	In		2.7		5	31	54	9	1												1,283	*
103	6	4		-	1	In		0.9		2	21	60	16	1		0										206,205
	5	3		-	3	In		0.7		2	20	59	18	1		0										12,746
	4	2		-	5	In		1.5		2	20	65	14													133
102	6	5		-	0	In		0.2		1	11	54	30	4	0	0	0									310,181
	5	4		-	2	In		0.1		0	9	53	32	5	0	1										71,645
	4	3		-	4	In		No		0	8	52	33	6		1										1,940	*
101	5	5		-	1	In		0.0		0	4	44	41	9	0	2	0									217,755
	4	4		-	3	In		0.0		0	3	42	42	10	0	3	0									14,201
	3	3		-	5	In		No		1	3	39	39	14		4										146
100	5	6		-	0	100.0	%	No		0	1	25	47	21	0	5	0	0								272,930
	4	5		-	2	In		No		0	1	23	47	22	0	7	0									64,254
	3	4		-	4	In		No			1	20	47	22	0	11	0									1,705	*
99	4	6		-	1	100.0		No			0	13	40	29	1	16	1	0								160,910
	3	5		-	3	100.0		No			0	11	38	29	1	20	2	0								10,153	*
98	4	7		-	0	99.9		No			0	4	26	37	2	28	3	0								172,730
	3	6		-	2	99.9		No			0	3	22	35	3	32	5	0								37,577
	2	5		-	4	In		No				4	18	31	3	36	7									820
97	3	7		-	1	99.3		No				1	11	27	5	44	12	1								81,150
	2	6		-	3	98.9		No				1	9	23	5	45	16	1								4,503	*
96	3	8		-	0	97.6		No				0	3	17	5	48	24	2	0							76,249
	2	7		-	2	97.3		No				0	2	14	5	48	29	3								14,253
	1	6		-	4	97.6		No				0	1	6	7	46	37	2								248	*
95	2	8		-	1	90.2		No				0	0	5	4	39	42	10	0							26,804
	1	7		-	3	87.6		No					0	4	3	34	46	12	0							1,161	*
94	2	9		-	0	80.8		No					0	1	2	27	50	19	0							22,620
	1	8		-	2	78.7		No						1	1	21	55	21								3,271	*
93	1	9		-	1	59.8		No						0	0	11	48	40	1							5,379
	0	8		-	3	52.3		No								6	46	48								132
92	1	10		-	0	44.4		No								5	40	53	2							3,855
	0	9		-	2	44.6		No								4	41	53	3							285
91	0	10		-	1	22.1		No								2	21	70	8							457
90	0	11		-	0	16.0		No									16	69	15							526

Total:						99.4	%	5.9	%	7	16	32	22	11	1	8	3	1	0							2,562,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago 2 Colorado 4	-0.8
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)	*+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	+0.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dallas vs San Jose	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Arizona	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Buffalo	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

112	11	0		-	0	96	4
111	10	0		-	1	91	8	0
110	10	1		-	0	84	15	1
	9	0		-	2	81	19	1
109	9	1		-	1	72	26	2	0
	8	0		-	3	70	28	1	0
108	9	2		-	0	58	36	6	0
	8	1		-	2	54	39	7	0	0
107	8	2		-	1	38	46	15	1	0
	7	1		-	3	37	45	17	1
106	8	3		-	0	24	47	26	3	0
	7	2		-	2	21	46	29	4	0	0
	6	1		-	4	17	47	31	5	0
105	7	3		-	1	11	38	40	10	1	0
	6	2		-	3	9	37	42	12	1	0
104	7	4		-	0	4	25	45	22	3	0	0
	6	3		-	2	3	22	44	25	5	0	0
	5	2		-	4	3	21	42	28	5	1
103	6	4		-	1	1	11	38	37	12	2	0	0
	5	3		-	3	1	10	35	38	14	2	0	0
	4	2		-	5	2	10	38	38	14
102	6	5		-	0	0	4	23	40	26	7	1	0	0
	5	4		-	2	0	3	19	40	28	9	1	0
	4	3		-	4		2	17	39	30	10	2	0
101	5	5		-	1	0	1	8	30	36	20	5	1	0	0
	4	4		-	3	0	0	7	28	36	22	6	1	0
	3	3		-	5			5	26	35	23	10	1
100	5	6		-	0		0	2	13	31	33	16	4	0	0							0
	4	5		-	2		0	1	11	29	34	19	5	1	0		0
	3	4		-	4			1	10	26	35	20	7	1
99	4	6		-	1		0	0	3	15	30	31	16	4	1	0	0					0
	3	5		-	3			0	3	13	29	31	18	6	1	0						0
98	4	7		-	0			0	0	4	15	30	30	15	4	1	0					0
	3	6		-	2			0	0	3	12	28	31	19	6	1	0					0
	2	5		-	4				0	2	11	24	31	21	9	2
97	3	7		-	1				0	0	3	12	26	30	19	6	1	0	0			1
	2	6		-	3					0	2	10	23	30	22	9	2	0	0			1
96	3	8		-	0					0	0	3	11	25	31	20	7	1	0	0		2	0
	2	7		-	2						0	2	8	21	30	24	10	2	0			3
	1	6		-	4							0	6	17	31	27	13	4	1			2
95	2	8		-	1							0	1	7	18	28	23	10	2	0	0	10	0
	1	7		-	3								1	5	14	25	26	12	3	0		12	0
94	2	9		-	0								0	1	6	17	25	20	9	2	0	19	0
	1	8		-	2								0	0	3	13	23	24	12	3	0	21
93	1	9		-	1									0	0	3	9	19	18	8	2	39	1
	0	8		-	3										1	1	8	15	17	11		48
92	1	10		-	0											0	2	8	15	14	5	52	4	0
	0	9		-	2												5	3	14	12	11	49	6
91	0	10		-	1													1	6	7	9	60	16	2	0
90	0	11		-	0													0	1	4	11	47	29	5	2	0

Total:						6	12	17	17	14	11	8	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0