Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Lost to Philadelphia 1-3, playoff odds down 7.3 to 72.6%

80 points 36 27-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	-7.8		*No		-0.6
New Jersey 2 Columbus 1 (ot)	*+0.4				*-0.0
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1					+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Boston	*-0.1-1.3-0.5-0.6-1.5+0.3				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Buffalo	-0.1-0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

102	11	0		-	0	In		0.1	%	57	40	3	0													1,498
101	10	0		-	1	In		No		32	50	16	2													1,656
100	10	1		-	0	In		No		18	48	28	5	0												12,198
	9	0		-	2	In		No		13	47	33	7	0		0										1,015
99	9	1		-	1	In		No		5	32	42	18	3	0	0										14,285
	8	0		-	3	In		No		3	31	41	21	3	0											339
98	9	2		-	0	In		No		2	18	41	31	8	1	0										53,783
	8	1		-	2	In		No		1	14	39	34	10	1	0										7,606	*
97	8	2		-	1	In		No		0	5	25	42	23	4	1	0									56,459
	7	1		-	3	In		No		0	3	21	44	26	5	1										2,340	*
96	8	3		-	0	100.0	%	No		0	1	13	37	36	11	2	0	0								142,040
	7	2		-	2	In		No			1	10	34	38	14	3	0									26,223
	6	1		-	4	In		No			1	7	29	40	18	5	0									478	*
95	7	3		-	1	100.0		No			0	3	19	41	29	8	0	0								133,006
	6	2		-	3	100.0		No			0	2	16	39	32	10	0	0								7,442	*
94	7	4		-	0	99.9		No			0	1	8	32	47	11	1	0								251,196
	6	3		-	2	99.8		No			0	0	6	28	49	14	2	0								54,582
	5	2		-	4	99.7		No				0	4	25	51	16	3	0								1,305	*
93	6	4		-	1	99.0		No				0	1	14	57	19	7	1	0	0						204,996
	5	3		-	3	98.5		No				0	1	11	55	22	10	1	0							12,823
	4	2		-	5	98.2		No					2	10	57	22	8	2								166
92	6	5		-	0	95.7		No				0	0	5	57	18	15	4	0	0						310,553
	5	4		-	2	93.4		No				0	0	4	53	18	19	6	0	0						72,268
	4	3		-	4	90.4		No						2	48	17	23	9	1							1,930	*
91	5	5		-	1	82.9		No					0	1	41	14	27	15	2	0						217,953
	4	4		-	3	78.4		No					0	1	35	14	29	18	3	0	0					13,962
	3	3		-	5	75.5		No						1	33	10	31	18	7							192
90	5	6		-	0	65.4		No					0	0	30	8	27	27	7	1	0					273,483
	4	5		-	2	57.0		No						0	25	6	26	32	10	1	0					63,913
	3	4		-	4	50.8		No							21	4	26	35	12	2	0					1,635	*
89	4	6		-	1	36.3		No						0	15	2	19	38	21	4	0	0				159,571
	3	5		-	3	29.7		No						0	11	2	17	39	26	5	0					9,918
	2	4		-	5	27.8		No							10	2	16	38	29	5	1					126	*
88	4	7		-	0	18.8		No							8	1	10	36	33	11	1	0				172,557
	3	6		-	2	13.1		No							5	0	7	33	37	15	2	0				37,800
	2	5		-	4	9.5		No							5	0	5	31	40	17	2					899	*
87	3	7		-	1	5.1		No							2	0	3	22	40	27	6	0				81,077
	2	6		-	3	2.9		No							1	0	2	16	41	31	8	1				4,490	*
86	3	8		-	0	1.6		No							1	0	1	10	33	38	16	1	0			76,184
	2	7		-	2	0.7		No							0		0	8	30	41	19	2	0			14,154
	1	6		-	4	Out		No										4	24	44	25	4				256	*
85	2	8		-	1	0.2		No							0		0	3	18	42	32	5	0			26,840
	1	7		-	3	Out		No										2	15	42	36	6				1,138	*
84	2	9		-	0	0.0		No							0		0	1	8	33	45	13	0	0		22,407
	1	8		-	2	Out		No										0	6	29	48	16	1	0		3,178	*
83	1	9		-	1	Out		No										0	2	19	50	27	2	0		5,527	*
82	1	10		-	0	Out		No											0	8	42	42	8	0		3,990
	0	9		-	2	Out		No											0	7	43	40	10	0		305
81	0	10		-	1	Out		No												2	26	48	21	3		455
80	0	11		-	0	Out		No												1	10	46	35	8	0	523

Total:						72.6	%	0.0	%	0	1	3	6	11	31	9	11	12	8	4	2	0	0	0	0	2,562,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 1	+1.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	-0.0
Winnipeg 4 Minnesota 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Los Angeles	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Boston	-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Dallas vs San Jose	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

102	11	0		-	0	0	4	25	40	24	5	1
101	10	0		-	1		1	10	28	36	19	6	1	0
100	10	1		-	0		0	2	13	29	32	19	5	1	0	0
	9	0		-	2			1	9	24	33	25	8	1	0
99	9	1		-	1			0	2	11	27	32	20	6	1	0	0
	8	0		-	3				1	9	26	33	22	8	1	0
98	9	2		-	0			0	0	3	12	27	32	20	6	1	0	0
	8	1		-	2				0	2	9	24	32	23	9	2	0
97	8	2		-	1				0	0	2	9	23	32	23	9	2	0	0
	7	1		-	3					0	1	6	20	32	27	10	3	1
96	8	3		-	0					0	0	2	9	23	31	23	9	2	0	0		0
	7	2		-	2						0	1	6	20	31	26	12	3	0	0
	6	1		-	4							1	4	16	31	28	14	5	1	0
95	7	3		-	1							0	1	6	18	30	27	14	4	0	0	0	0
	6	2		-	3						0	0	1	4	16	27	29	17	5	1	0	0
94	7	4		-	0							0	0	1	6	18	30	28	14	3	0	0	0	0
	6	3		-	2							0	0	1	4	15	28	30	17	5	1	0	0
	5	2		-	4									0	4	12	27	29	20	6	1	0	0
93	6	4		-	1								0	0	0	4	14	29	32	16	3	1	0	0
	5	3		-	3									0	0	3	11	28	32	19	5	1	0	0
	4	2		-	5										1	2	11	25	33	22	5	1	1
92	6	5		-	0									0	0	1	4	17	33	30	11	3	2	0	0
	5	4		-	2										0	0	3	14	30	32	14	4	2	0	0
	4	3		-	4											0	2	11	28	33	16	5	4	0
91	5	5		-	1											0	0	4	17	34	28	6	9	2	0	0
	4	4		-	3												0	3	13	32	30	7	12	3	0	0
	3	3		-	5													3	13	28	32	6	15	4
90	5	6		-	0											0	0	1	7	24	34	7	19	7	1	0	0
	4	5		-	2												0	0	4	19	33	8	23	10	2	0	0
	3	4		-	4													0	3	16	32	8	26	11	3	0
89	4	6		-	1												0	0	1	8	27	4	28	23	8	1	0	0
	3	5		-	3													0	1	6	23	4	28	27	10	2	0
	2	4		-	5														1	6	21	3	30	29	8	2	1
88	4	7		-	0													0	0	3	16	2	22	33	19	5	1	0	0
	3	6		-	2														0	1	12	1	20	34	23	7	1	0
	2	5		-	4														0	1	9	1	19	37	23	9	1
87	3	7		-	1														0	0	5	0	9	28	34	19	5	0	0
	2	6		-	3															0	3	0	6	25	35	23	6	1	0
86	3	8		-	0															0	2	0	3	16	32	31	13	2	0	0
	2	7		-	2															0	1	0	2	13	30	34	17	3	0
	1	6		-	4																		1	9	25	34	22	8	1
85	2	8		-	1																0		0	4	18	36	30	10	1	0
	1	7		-	3																		0	3	14	35	32	12	3	0
84	2	9		-	0																0		0	1	7	26	38	23	5	0	0
	1	8		-	2																		0	0	5	20	38	28	8	1
83	1	9		-	1																			0	1	10	31	37	17	3	0
82	1	10		-	0																				0	3	17	37	32	10	1
	0	9		-	2																					4	14	31	33	16	1
81	0	10		-	1																					0	5	24	32	30	8	1
80	0	11		-	0																						1	9	30	35	19	7	0

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12	13	12	2	8	7	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0