Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 96.5%

87 points 39 26-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Anaheim 4 NY Rangers 2	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Chicago	+2.4+2.4+2.2+0.8+0.8-2.1		+0.5+0.5+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.5
NY Islanders vs Nashville	-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.4

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in			Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Promoted	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

103	8	0		-	0	In		No	44	47	9	0													27,405
102	7	0		-	1	In		No	12	47	37	4													27,601
101	7	1		-	0	In		No	7	39	46	9													205,631
	6	0		-	2	In		No	6	36	48	10													12,389
100	6	1		-	1	In		No	0	12	53	34	0												185,137
	5	0		-	3	In		No	0	11	53	35	0												3,142
99	6	2		-	0	In		No	0	7	46	46	1		0										697,747
	5	1		-	2	In		No	0	6	45	48	1		0										71,158
	4	0		-	4	In		No		6	44	49	1												483
98	5	2		-	1	In		No	0	1	22	71	6	0	0										534,417
	4	1		-	3	In		No	0	0	21	70	8	0	0										14,915
	3	0		-	5	In		No			17	67	15												46
97	5	3		-	0	In		No	0	0	14	72	13	0	1	0									1,343,448
	4	2		-	2	In		No		0	13	70	16	0	1	0									168,759
	3	1		-	4	In		No		0	11	68	19	0	2										1,893
	2	0		-	6	In		No			50	50													2
96	4	3		-	1	In		No		0	3	57	34	1	5	0									849,634
	3	2		-	3	In		No			2	52	37	1	6	0									28,348
	2	1		-	5	In		No			2	44	46	2	6	1									108
95	4	4		-	0	100.0	%	No		0	1	41	43	3	11	1	0								1,600,340
	3	3		-	2	In		No		0	1	35	44	3	15	1									212,845
	2	2		-	4	In		No			1	33	45	4	16	1									2,677
	1	1		-	6	In		No				38	38		13	13									8
94	3	4		-	1	100.0		No			0	15	42	8	29	5	0	0							804,575
	2	3		-	3	100.0		No			0	12	39	9	33	8	0								26,343
	1	2		-	5	In		No				9	37	7	39	7									147
93	3	5		-	0	99.6		No			0	6	29	11	40	13	0	0							1,213,695
	2	4		-	2	99.3		No			0	4	24	11	43	18	1	0							150,572
	1	3		-	4	98.6		No				2	19	10	44	23	1								1,588
	0	2		-	6	In		No							100										1
92	2	5		-	1	96.5		No				1	9	10	42	34	3	0	0						453,592
	1	4		-	3	94.7		No				0	6	8	41	39	5	0							12,421
	0	3		-	5	94.9		No				3	3	10	44	36	5								39
91	2	6		-	0	84.8		No				0	3	6	30	46	14	2	0	0					570,122
	1	5		-	2	79.2		No				0	1	4	25	49	18	3	0						55,584
	0	4		-	4	73.6		No					0	4	25	45	22	4	0						402
90	1	6		-	1	57.4		No				0	0	1	11	45	32	9	1	0					140,673
	0	5		-	3	49.4		No					0	1	8	41	36	12	2						2,302
89	1	7		-	0	27.5		No					0	0	3	24	40	25	6	0					152,003
	0	6		-	2	20.5		No						0	2	19	41	30	9	0					8,621
88	0	7		-	1	7.9		No						0	0	8	28	41	21	2					18,614
87	0	8		-	0	1.2		No							0	1	11	36	41	11	0				18,273

Total:						96.5	%	No	0	2	10	35	22	4	15	8	2	1	0	0	0				9,617,700

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 4 Minnesota 2	-0.1
Anaheim 4 NY Rangers 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Chicago	-1.0-1.0-0.9+0.0+0.0+0.8
St Louis vs Arizona	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

103	8	0		-	0		0	14	40	34	10	1	0
102	7	0		-	1		0	1	12	33	35	16	3	0
101	7	1		-	0			0	5	22	37	26	9	1	0
	6	0		-	2			0	4	19	36	29	11	2	0
100	6	1		-	1			0	0	3	15	34	34	13	1	0	0
	5	0		-	3				0	2	12	33	37	15	1	0
99	6	2		-	0			0	0	1	7	25	38	24	5	0	0
	5	1		-	2				0	1	6	22	38	27	6	0	0	0
	4	0		-	4					0	3	19	37	33	7	0
98	5	2		-	1					0	0	5	22	42	24	6	1	0	0
	4	1		-	3					0	0	4	21	41	26	6	1	0
	3	0		-	5							2	15	48	28		7
97	5	3		-	0					0	0	1	11	34	35	15	3	0	0
	4	2		-	2					0	0	1	10	33	36	17	4	0	0
	3	1		-	4						0	0	7	31	36	21	4	0
	2	0		-	6									50	50
96	4	3		-	1						0	0	1	11	30	34	18	5	0	0	0
	3	2		-	3							0	1	10	29	34	20	6	1	0
	2	1		-	5									6	27	36	20	10	1
95	4	4		-	0						0	0	0	4	17	33	30	14	3	0	0	0	0
	3	3		-	2							0	0	3	15	31	31	16	4	0	0
	2	2		-	4								0	2	12	28	33	19	4	1
	1	1		-	6											38	25	25	13
94	3	4		-	1								0	0	2	12	29	34	18	4	0	0	0
	2	3		-	3								0	0	2	10	26	35	21	6	1	0
	1	2		-	5										1	10	28	32	23	7
93	3	5		-	0									0	0	4	16	33	32	14	2	0	0	0	0
	2	4		-	2									0	0	3	13	30	34	17	3	1	0	0
	1	3		-	4											2	9	25	38	20	4	1	0
	0	2		-	6														100
92	2	5		-	1										0	0	2	13	32	35	14	2	1	0	0
	1	4		-	3											0	1	10	28	38	17	3	2	0
	0	3		-	5												3	13	26	41	13	3	3
91	2	6		-	0											0	0	4	18	36	27	6	8	1	0	0
	1	5		-	2											0	0	2	14	34	29	8	11	2	0	0
	0	4		-	4													1	15	30	27	6	15	4
90	1	6		-	1											0	0	0	4	19	35	6	26	10	1	0
	0	5		-	3													0	2	16	31	7	28	13	2	0
89	1	7		-	0													0	1	6	21	4	30	27	10	2	0
	0	6		-	2														0	4	16	4	30	30	12	2	0
88	0	7		-	1														0	1	7	0	18	36	28	9	1	0
87	0	8		-	0															0	1	0	5	21	38	29	6	0

Total:							0	0	0	1	2	4	7	12	13	13	13	11	9	7	4	1	2	1	0	0	0	0