Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2016-2017 50/50

Lost to New Jersey 3-5, playoff odds up 0.1 to 99.4%

92 points 43 26-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
New Jersey 5 Dallas 3	-0.6		-0.6		-0.5
Winnipeg 2 Vancouver 3	+0.4
Detroit 4 Minnesota 2	+0.1				+0.1
Anaheim 4 NY Rangers 2					-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Average seed
St Louis vs Arizona	-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Chicago			+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Calgary vs Colorado					+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Promoted		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

106	7	0		-	0	In		11.9	%	12	45	42	1													25,405
105	6	0		-	1	In		3.5		4	30	60	6	0												20,253
104	6	1		-	0	In		0.8		1	16	68	14	1												155,087
	5	0		-	2	In		0.7		1	15	68	16	1												7,188
103	5	1		-	1	In		0.1		0	5	59	33	3		0										108,225
	4	0		-	3	In		No			4	58	35	3		0										1,365
102	5	2		-	0	In		0.0		0	1	44	45	9		0	0									410,374
	4	1		-	2	In		0.0		0	1	42	46	10		0										31,780
	3	0		-	4	In		No			2	35	47	16												147
101	4	2		-	1	In		No		0	0	23	55	20		2	0									239,949
	3	1		-	3	In		No			0	20	56	21		2	0									4,983
	2	0		-	5	In		No				13	56	25		6										16
100	4	3		-	0	In		No			0	11	46	37	0	6	0									603,117
	3	2		-	2	In		No			0	9	46	38	0	7	0									56,050
	2	1		-	4	In		No				9	44	39		8	0									434
99	3	3		-	1	In		No				3	33	45	0	18	1									283,295
	2	2		-	3	In		No				3	32	45	0	19	1									6,448
	1	1		-	5	In		No					47	40		13										15
98	3	4		-	0	In		No				1	15	49	1	31	4									531,929
	2	3		-	2	In		No				0	14	48	1	33	4									49,563
	1	2		-	4	In		No				1	10	48	3	33	6									376
	0	1		-	6	In		No						100												2
97	2	4		-	1	In		No				0	6	36	2	45	11									186,454
	1	3		-	3	In		No				0	6	34	2	46	12									3,905
	0	2		-	5	In		No						40		60										5
96	2	5		-	0	99.5	%	No				0	1	22	2	50	24	0								282,932
	1	4		-	2	99.5		No					1	22	2	49	25	1								22,055
	0	3		-	4	In		No					2	18	4	48	28									90
95	1	5		-	1	98.4		No					0	9	3	45	41	2								66,076
	0	4		-	3	98.5		No					0	7	3	46	42	2								851
94	1	6		-	0	90.1		No					0	3	1	30	55	10								83,320
	0	5		-	2	89.9		No						3	1	29	57	10								3,786
93	0	6		-	1	81.8		No						1	1	18	63	18	0							9,733
92	0	7		-	0	55.9		No						0	0	6	50	44	0							10,692

Total:						99.4	%	0.2	%	0	2	17	28	28	1	18	6	1	0							3,205,900

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New Jersey 5 Dallas 3	+0.9
Pittsburgh 2 Philadelphia 1	-0.1
Anaheim 4 NY Rangers 2	+0.1
Detroit 4 Minnesota 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary vs Colorado	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
St Louis vs Arizona	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Chicago	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

106	7	0		-	0	12	44	42	2	0
105	6	0		-	1	4	27	58	11	1	0
104	6	1		-	0	1	14	60	22	3	0	0
	5	0		-	2	1	13	59	24	3	0	0
103	5	1		-	1	0	3	38	41	15	2	0
	4	0		-	3		3	36	41	17	3
102	5	2		-	0	0	1	22	41	28	8	1	0	0
	4	1		-	2	0	1	20	40	30	9	1	0
	3	0		-	4			14	35	34	16	1
101	4	2		-	1		0	5	22	38	26	7	1	0
	3	1		-	3		0	4	21	38	28	9	1	0
	2	0		-	5			6	6	25	25	38
100	4	3		-	0		0	1	10	29	36	20	4	0	0	0
	3	2		-	2			1	8	27	37	22	5	0	0	0
	2	1		-	4				8	22	38	26	6	0
99	3	3		-	1			0	1	9	28	38	20	4	0	0
	2	2		-	3			0	1	8	27	38	21	5	1	0
	1	1		-	5						53	33	13
98	3	4		-	0			0	0	2	13	33	34	15	3	0	0
	2	3		-	2			0	0	2	11	30	35	18	4	0	0
	1	2		-	4					1	7	27	38	19	7	1	0
	0	1		-	6							50	50
97	2	4		-	1				0	0	2	12	32	34	16	4	0	0
	1	3		-	3					0	1	11	30	35	18	4	1
	0	2		-	5							20	20	40	20
96	2	5		-	0					0	0	3	16	32	31	14	3	0	0			0
	1	4		-	2					0	0	2	13	30	32	17	4	0	0			1
	0	3		-	4							2	7	33	26	24	7	1
95	1	5		-	1						0	0	3	14	30	32	16	4	0	0		2
	0	4		-	3							0	2	11	27	33	18	7	0			2
94	1	6		-	0							0	0	3	13	29	28	13	3	0	0	10
	0	5		-	2							0	0	1	9	27	31	17	4	1	0	10
93	0	6		-	1									0	2	9	24	26	16	4	0	18	0
92	0	7		-	0										0	2	7	16	18	10	2	44	1	0

Total:						0	1	9	12	14	16	15	12	9	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0