SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

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4 a.m.

Washington Redskins Playoff Chances 2019 50/50

Beat Carolina 29-21, playoff odds up 0.1 to 0.2%

3-9-0 .250

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/28	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Carolina 21 Washington 29	+0.1		+0.6
Dallas 15 Buffalo 26	+0.1
NY Giants 13 Green Bay 31			+0.1
Atlanta 18 New Orleans 26			+0.1
Arizona 7 LA Rams 34			+0.1
Detroit 20 Chicago 24			+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 12/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Green Bay vs Washington	Out+0.7+0.2		-0.8+0.2+0.8
Philadelphia vs NY Giants	Out*+0.4+0.2		+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Chicago vs Dallas	+0.2*OutOut
Arizona vs Pittsburgh			-0.1+0.3+0.1
Minnesota vs Detroit			+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis			-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Atlanta vs Carolina			-0.1*+0.1+0.1
LA Rams vs Seattle			-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

7		4	-	0	-	0	3.2	%				3			0	6	35	40	14	2	0				54,701
6	.5	3	-	0	-	1	2.6					3				1	5	23	42	25	2				153
6		3	-	1	-	0	Out									0	1	8	25	37	23	6	0		217,833
5	.5	2	-	1	-	1	Out											0	3	35	40	17	4	0	530
5		2	-	2	-	0	Out											0	0	4	20	40	31	5	327,485
4	.5	1	-	2	-	1	Out													1	14	31	39	15	545
4		1	-	3	-	0	Out													0	0	5	32	63	218,285
3	.5	0	-	3	-	1	Out														1	2	19	79	187
3		0	-	4	-	0	Out																	100	54,569

Total:							0.2	%				0			0	0	2	4	7	11	13	18	20	24	874,288

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/28	100.0*	Lottery seed
Carolina 21 Washington 29	-1.0
Miami 37 Philadelphia 31	+0.2
NY Giants 13 Green Bay 31	-0.1
Atlanta 18 New Orleans 26	-0.1
Arizona 7 LA Rams 34	-0.1
Detroit 20 Chicago 24	-0.1
Baltimore 20 San Francisco 17	+0.1
Dallas 15 Buffalo 26	+0.1
Jacksonville 11 Tampa Bay 28	-0.0
Cincinnati 22 NY Jets 6	+0.0
Kansas City 40 Oakland 9	-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Seattle vs Minnesota	+0.1*-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 12/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Green Bay vs Washington	+1.3+0.0-1.3
Atlanta vs Carolina	+0.2-0.4-0.2
Minnesota vs Detroit	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Arizona vs Pittsburgh	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
New Orleans vs San Francisco	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Houston vs Denver	-0.1-0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Miami	-0.0-0.1+0.0
Cleveland vs Cincinnati	-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Jacksonville vs LA Chargers	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Oakland vs Tennessee	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
New England vs Kansas City	-0.0*+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

7		4	-	0	-	0								3								0	0	2	9	21	29	23	10	3	0	0
6	.5	3	-	0	-	1								3											3	8	18	27	24	12	3		1
6		3	-	1	-	0																			0	0	1	3	11	22	28	22	10	3	0	0
5	.5	2	-	1	-	1																							1	8	19	28	27	14	4	0
5		2	-	2	-	0																						0	0	0	1	6	19	32	29	11	1	0
4	.5	1	-	2	-	1																									0	0	4	15	38	33	9	0
4		1	-	3	-	0																										0	0	2	14	44	34	6
3	.5	0	-	3	-	1																													3	17	58	22
3		0	-	4	-	0																														4	39	57

Total:														0								0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	6	7	8	10	13	14	16	11	5