Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Detroit 5-4, playoff odds up 0.9 to 50.5%

16 points 7 7-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	+4.4		+0.3		+0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Boston vs Dallas	+0.4+0.0+0.8+0.0*-0.1-0.5
San Jose vs Buffalo	-0.5-0.3+0.0+0.8*+0.1+0.4				-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Montreal vs St. Louis	+0.5+0.3-0.5+0.1-0.2-0.5
Phoenix vs Vancouver					-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-148						In		Yes		100																84	*
119		47	10		-	9	In		Yes		90				10												10	*
118		47	11		-	8	In		97.8	%	100																46	*
117		47	12		-	7	In		98.1		94	2			4												52	*
116		46	12		-	8	In		98.8		96	1			2												81	*
115		46	13		-	7	In		92.8		95	3			2												153	*
114		46	14		-	6	In		89.2		91	4			4	0											231	*
113		45	14		-	7	In		88.0		92	2			5	0											366	*
112		44	14		-	8	In		83.7		86	4			9	1	0										551	*
111		44	15		-	7	99.9	%	78.9		86	6			7	1	0	0	0								733	*
110		43	15		-	8	In		70.8		81	7	0		10	2	0	0									1,095	*
109		43	16		-	7	99.9		59.6		75	10	0		11	3	0	0	0								1,596	*
108		42	16		-	8	99.9		49.2		67	15	0		13	4	1	0	0								2,247	*
107		42	17		-	7	99.8		37.1		63	15	1		15	4	1	0	0	0	0	0					3,079	*
106		41	17		-	8	99.4		26.8		54	20	2	0	16	5	2	1	0	0	0	0					4,154	*
105		41	18		-	7	99.4		17.3		47	23	3	0	16	7	2	1	0	0	0	0					5,548	*
104		40	18		-	8	99.1		9.8		39	26	5	0	17	8	3	1	1	0	0						7,017	*
103		40	19		-	7	98.3		4.8		32	26	7	0	18	9	4	2	1	0	0	0	0				9,048	*
102		39	19		-	8	97.5		1.6		25	27	9	1	19	10	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0			11,185	*
101		39	20		-	7	96.2		0.5		18	26	11	1	18	12	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0			13,726	*
100		38	20		-	8	94.8		0.1		13	24	14	2	18	12	7	4	3	1	1	0	0	0			16,358	*
99		38	21		-	7	93.1		0.0		8	21	15	4	18	14	9	5	3	2	1	1	0	0			19,284	*
98		37	21		-	8	90.2		0.0		5	17	16	5	17	14	10	7	4	3	2	1	0	0			22,050	*
97		37	22		-	7	87.1		No		3	13	16	6	16	14	11	8	6	4	2	1	0	0			25,382	*
96		36	22		-	8	83.1		No		2	10	16	8	14	14	12	9	7	5	3	2	1	0			27,921	*
95		36	23		-	7	78.2		No		1	7	14	9	12	14	12	10	8	6	4	2	1	0			30,701	*
94		35	23		-	8	73.9		No		0	4	12	10	11	13	12	11	9	7	5	3	2	1			32,934	*
93		35	24		-	7	68.0		No		0	3	10	10	9	12	12	12	10	9	6	4	2	1			35,199	*
92		34	24		-	8	61.7		No		0	2	7	10	7	11	12	12	11	10	8	5	3	1			36,419	*
91		34	25		-	7	55.0		No		0	1	5	10	6	9	11	12	12	11	9	7	4	2			36,855	*
90		33	25		-	8	48.7		No		0	0	4	9	5	8	10	12	12	12	11	8	6	2			37,060	*
89		33	26		-	7	42.0		No		0	0	2	8	4	7	9	11	13	13	12	10	7	3			36,320	*
88		32	26		-	8	36.1		No			0	2	7	3	6	8	11	12	13	13	12	9	4			35,257	*
87		32	27		-	7	30.0		No			0	1	6	2	5	7	9	12	13	14	14	11	6			33,756	*
86		31	27		-	8	24.5		No			0	1	5	2	4	6	8	11	13	15	15	13	8			31,552	*
85		31	28		-	7	20.3		No			0	0	4	1	3	5	7	10	12	15	16	16	11			28,881	*
84		30	28		-	8	16.3		No				0	3	1	2	4	6	9	12	15	17	18	14			26,071	*
83		30	29		-	7	12.2		No				0	2	1	2	3	5	7	11	14	18	21	17			23,400	*
82		29	29		-	8	9.2		No				0	2	0	1	2	4	6	10	13	18	22	21			20,315	*
81		29	30		-	7	6.7		No				0	1	0	1	2	3	5	8	13	19	24	25			17,461	*
80		28	30		-	8	5.4		No				0	1	0	0	1	3	4	7	11	18	26	29			14,720	*
79		28	31		-	7	3.6		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	6	10	16	26	35			12,152	*
78		27	31		-	8	2.0		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	5	9	15	27	40			9,936	*
77		27	32		-	7	1.9		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	14	26	46			7,920	*
76		26	32		-	8	0.8		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	13	27	50			6,411	*
75		26	33		-	7	0.7		No					0		0	0	0	1	2	4	11	25	57			4,774	*
74		25	33		-	8	0.6		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	9	23	62			3,772	*
73		24	33		-	9	0.3		No					0				0	0	1	3	7	22	67			2,772	*
72		24	34		-	8	0.1		No									0	0	1	2	6	20	70			2,058	*
71		24	35		-	7	0.1		No					0				0	0	0	2	5	18	74			1,512	*
70		23	35		-	8	0.2		No								0	0	0	0	1	4	16	78			1,006	*
69		23	36		-	7	Out		No										0	0	1	3	12	84			744	*
68		22	36		-	8	Out		No											0	1	1	11	86			480	*
67		22	37		-	7	Out		No												1	1	9	90			362	*
66		21	37		-	8	Out		No													1	4	95			220	*
65		20	37		-	9	Out		No													1	6	94			159	*
64		20	38		-	8	Out		No														5	95			102	*
63		20	39		-	7	Out		No														7	93			69	*
62		20	40		-	6	Out		No													3	6	92			36	*
61		18	39		-	9	Out		No														11	89			19	*
16	-60						Out		No															100			78	*

Total:							50.5	%	1.3	%	4	5	6	5	7	8	7	8	8	8	8	8	9	9			703,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	-0.9
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	*+0.0

Tuesday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

119	-148						100
118		47	11		-	8	98	2
117		47	12		-	7	98	2
116		46	12		-	8	99	1
115		46	13		-	7	93	7	1
114		46	14		-	6	89	10	0
113		45	14		-	7	88	12	0
112		44	14		-	8	84	15	1
111		44	15		-	7	79	18	3
110		43	15		-	8	71	26	3	0
109		43	16		-	7	60	34	6	1
108		42	16		-	8	49	37	12	2	0
107		42	17		-	7	37	40	18	4	0
106		41	17		-	8	27	40	24	8	2	0	0
105		41	18		-	7	17	35	30	13	4	1	0
104		40	18		-	8	10	28	31	21	8	2	0	0
103		40	19		-	7	5	19	30	27	14	5	1	0	0
102		39	19		-	8	2	10	23	28	22	11	4	1	0
101		39	20		-	7	1	5	14	24	26	19	9	3	1	0	0
100		38	20		-	8	0	1	6	15	24	25	17	8	3	1	0	0
99		38	21		-	7	0	0	2	7	16	24	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
98		37	21		-	8	0	0	0	2	7	15	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
97		37	22		-	7			0	0	2	7	14	21	23	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
96		36	22		-	8				0	0	2	6	13	20	22	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
95		36	23		-	7				0	0	0	1	5	11	19	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
94		35	23		-	8						0	0	1	3	9	16	22	21	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
93		35	24		-	7						0	0	0	1	2	6	13	20	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
92		34	24		-	8								0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	20	14	7	3	1	0	0
91		34	25		-	7										0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
90		33	25		-	8											0	0	0	2	6	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
89		33	26		-	7											0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
88		32	26		-	8													0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
87		32	27		-	7														0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
86		31	27		-	8																0	0	0	2	5	13	21	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
85		31	28		-	7																	0	0	0	2	5	12	20	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
84		30	28		-	8																	0	0	0	0	2	5	13	22	26	20	10	3	0	0
83		30	29		-	7																			0	0	0	2	6	14	24	26	19	8	2	0
82		29	29		-	8																				0	0	0	2	8	17	26	26	15	5	1
81		29	30		-	7																					0	0	1	3	10	21	30	24	11	2
80		28	30		-	8																							0	1	5	14	28	31	18	4
79		28	31		-	7																						0	0	0	2	8	21	34	27	9
78		27	31		-	8																								0	1	4	14	31	35	15
77		27	32		-	7																								0	0	2	9	27	40	23
76		26	32		-	8																										1	5	21	42	31
75		26	33		-	7																										0	2	15	41	42
74		25	33		-	8																										0	1	9	38	52
73		24	33		-	9																											0	6	33	60
72		24	34		-	8																										0	0	3	30	67
71		24	35		-	7																											0	2	22	76
70		23	35		-	8																												1	16	83
69		23	36		-	7																												0	13	87
68		22	36		-	8																												0	9	91
67		22	37		-	7																													6	94
66		21	37		-	8																													3	97
65		20	37		-	9																													3	97
64		20	38		-	8																													4	96
63		20	39		-	7																													1	99
16	-62																																			100

Total:							1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3