Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.005 to 44.9%

15 points 7 6-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1	*-0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs NY Islanders	+4.6+1.1*+0.4-0.7-0.9-4.6		+0.5+0.6+0.6-0.1-0.1-0.7		+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.5
San Jose vs Buffalo	+0.5-0.1+0.2-0.5-0.1-0.4
Boston vs Dallas	-0.5+0.3+0.2+0.2+0.0+0.4
Montreal vs St. Louis	-0.4-0.3+0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

119	-151						In		Yes		100																158	*
118		49	14		-	5	In		98.6	%	94				6												71	*
117		47	13		-	8	In		98.3		95				3	2											115	*
116		46	13		-	9	In		96.3		96	2			1		1										191	*
115		46	14		-	8	In		95.6		94	1			4	0											294	*
114		46	15		-	7	In		89.0		89	4			7	0											408	*
113		45	15		-	8	In		89.6		88	4			7	1	0	0									651	*
112		45	16		-	7	99.9	%	83.1		82	7	0		7	3	0	0	0								967	*
111		44	16		-	8	99.8		78.4		78	9	0		10	2	0	0	0				0				1,351	*
110		44	17		-	7	99.7		71.0		75	11	1		10	2	1	0	0	0	0						1,831	*
109		43	17		-	8	99.7		58.5		66	15	1		13	4	1	0	0	0		0					2,668	*
108		43	18		-	7	99.7		49.4		59	18	2		13	5	2	1	0	0	0			0			3,524	*
107		42	18		-	8	99.0		36.4		52	21	3	0	14	6	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		4,756	*
106		42	19		-	7	98.4		26.2		42	24	4	0	16	7	3	2	1	0	0	0	0				6,145	*
105		41	19		-	8	97.8		17.2		35	27	6	0	16	8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			7,707	*
104		40	19		-	9	97.1		9.4		28	28	8	1	16	9	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	9,698	*
103		40	20		-	8	95.4		4.6		21	27	10	1	17	10	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12,019	*
102		40	21		-	7	93.8		1.8		14	26	13	2	17	11	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	14,557	*
101		39	21		-	8	91.1		0.4		9	22	15	3	16	12	7	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	17,129	*
100		39	22		-	7	88.5		0.1		6	19	17	4	15	12	9	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	20,021	*
99		38	22		-	8	84.8		0.0		4	15	17	6	14	13	10	7	5	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	23,088	*
98		38	23		-	7	80.8		No		2	11	16	7	13	12	10	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	25,853	*
97		37	23		-	8	75.2		No		1	7	15	9	12	12	11	9	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	28,572	*
96		36	23		-	9	70.1		No		0	5	12	10	10	12	11	10	8	7	5	4	3	2	1	0	31,128	*
95		36	24		-	8	64.1		No		0	3	10	11	9	11	11	10	9	8	6	5	4	2	1	0	33,187	*
94		35	24		-	9	57.9		No		0	2	8	11	7	9	10	10	10	9	7	6	5	3	2	1	35,053	*
93		35	25		-	8	51.5		No		0	1	5	10	6	8	10	10	10	10	8	7	6	4	2	1	35,963	*
92		34	25		-	9	44.4		No		0	0	4	9	5	7	9	10	10	10	10	9	7	5	3	1	36,303	*
91		34	26		-	8	38.2		No		0	0	2	9	4	6	8	9	10	10	10	10	8	6	4	2	36,302	*
90		33	26		-	9	32.2		No			0	1	7	3	5	7	8	10	10	11	10	9	8	6	3	35,657	*
89		33	27		-	8	26.4		No			0	1	6	2	4	6	8	9	10	11	11	11	10	8	4	34,446	*
88		32	27		-	9	21.4		No			0	0	5	2	3	5	6	8	9	11	12	12	11	9	5	32,676	*
87		32	28		-	8	17.2		No			0	0	4	1	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	13	13	11	7	30,446	*
86		31	28		-	9	13.2		No			0	0	3	1	2	3	5	6	8	10	12	14	14	14	9	28,141	*
85		31	29		-	8	9.7		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	7	10	12	13	16	16	12	25,211	*
84		30	29		-	9	7.5		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	14	16	18	15	22,559	*
83		30	30		-	8	5.6		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	13	17	20	19	19,602	*
82		29	30		-	9	4.1		No				0	1	0	0	1	2	3	4	6	9	12	17	22	23	16,998	*
81		29	31		-	8	2.9		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	22	27	14,269	*
80		28	31		-	9	2.0		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	11	17	24	32	11,976	*
79		28	32		-	8	1.3		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	9	15	25	36	9,626	*
78		27	32		-	9	1.0		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	5	8	13	26	42	7,850	*
77		27	33		-	8	0.5		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	13	26	48	6,138	*
76		26	33		-	9	0.4		No					0			0	0	0	1	2	3	5	11	24	54	4,727	*
75		26	34		-	8	0.2		No					0			0	0	0	0	1	1	5	10	23	59	3,698	*
74		26	35		-	7	0.0		No								0		0	0	1	1	4	9	21	63	2,782	*
73		25	35		-	8	0.1		No					0			0			0	0	1	3	7	20	68	2,119	*
72		25	36		-	7	0.1		No					0						0	0	0	3	5	18	73	1,496	*
71		24	36		-	8	Out		No										0		0	1	1	4	16	79	1,083	*
70		23	36		-	9	Out		No											0	0	0	1	4	16	79	716	*
69		23	37		-	8	Out		No												0	1	1	4	14	80	504	*
68		23	38		-	7	Out		No											0		0	1	2	9	87	344	*
67		22	38		-	8	Out		No															1	7	92	235	*
66		22	39		-	7	Out		No															1	4	95	165	*
65		21	39		-	8	Out		No															3	6	90	94	*
64		20	39		-	9	Out		No																4	96	57	*
63		21	41		-	6	Out		No														2		4	93	45	*
62		19	40		-	9	Out		No															4		96	25	*
61		20	42		-	6	Out		No																8	92	13	*
60		19	42		-	7	Out		No																8	92	12	*
15	-59						Out		No																	100	60	*

Total:							44.9	%	2.1	%	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	703,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs NY Islanders	-0.9-0.9-0.8+0.1+0.1+1.1
Phoenix vs Vancouver	+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

119	-151						100
118		49	14		-	5	99	1
117		47	13		-	8	98	2
116		47	14		-	7	96	4
115		46	14		-	8	96	4	0
114		46	15		-	7	89	11	0
113		45	15		-	8	90	10	0
112		45	16		-	7	83	16	1	0
111		44	16		-	8	78	20	2	0
110		44	17		-	7	71	25	4	0	0
109		43	17		-	8	58	34	7	1	0
108		43	18		-	7	49	37	12	2	0
107		42	18		-	8	36	42	17	4	0	0	0
106		42	19		-	7	26	40	24	7	2	0
105		41	19		-	8	17	36	29	13	4	1	0
104		40	19		-	9	9	27	32	20	8	2	0	0
103		40	20		-	8	5	19	30	26	14	5	1	0	0
102		40	21		-	7	2	10	23	28	22	11	3	1	0	0
101		39	21		-	8	0	4	13	24	26	19	9	3	1	0
100		39	22		-	7	0	1	6	16	24	24	17	8	3	1	0	0
99		38	22		-	8	0	0	2	7	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
98		38	23		-	7		0	0	2	7	16	22	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
97		37	23		-	8		0	0	0	2	7	15	21	23	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
96		36	23		-	9				0	0	2	6	13	19	23	19	11	5	2	0	0	0
95		36	24		-	8				0	0	0	1	5	11	19	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
94		35	24		-	9					0	0	0	1	3	9	16	21	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
93		35	25		-	8							0	0	0	2	6	13	20	22	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
92		34	25		-	9								0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	20	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
91		34	26		-	8										0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0
90		33	26		-	9											0	0	0	2	6	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
89		33	27		-	8										0		0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	15	7	2	1	0	0
88		32	27		-	9													0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	17	9	3	1	0	0
87		32	28		-	8													0	0	0	0	1	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
86		31	28		-	9															0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0
85		31	29		-	8																	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0
84		30	29		-	9																		0	0	0	2	5	13	22	26	20	10	3	1	0
83		30	30		-	8																			0	0	0	2	6	15	23	26	18	8	2	0
82		29	30		-	9																					0	0	2	8	18	26	26	15	4	1
81		29	31		-	8																					0	0	1	3	10	22	30	23	10	2
80		28	31		-	9																						0	0	1	5	14	28	30	18	4
79		28	32		-	8																							0	0	2	8	22	34	26	8
78		27	32		-	9																								0	1	4	15	32	35	13
77		27	33		-	8																								0	0	2	9	27	40	22
76		26	33		-	9																									0	1	5	21	43	30
75		26	34		-	8																										0	2	15	43	40
74		26	35		-	7																											1	10	40	49
73		25	35		-	8																											1	6	34	59
72		25	36		-	7																											0	4	30	66
71		24	36		-	8																											0	2	21	77
70		23	36		-	9																												1	16	83
69		23	37		-	8																													13	87
68		23	38		-	7																												0	8	91
67		22	38		-	8																													9	91
66		22	39		-	7																													7	93
65		21	39		-	8																													5	95
64		20	39		-	9																														100
63		21	41		-	6																													4	96
62		19	40		-	9																													4	96
15	-61																																			100

Total:							2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2