Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.003 to 43.2%

14 points 7 8-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Florida vs Edmonton	-0.4+0.0+0.4+0.1+0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-148						In		Yes		100																63	*
119		49	11		-	7	In		Yes		93					7											14	*
118		48	11		-	8	In		Yes		85				15												20	*
117		47	11		-	9	In		97.5	%	98	3															40	*
116		48	13		-	6	In		Yes		100																53	*
115		47	13		-	7	In		90.6		91	5			4												96	*
114		47	14		-	6	In		87.5		86	7			5	1											176	*
113		46	14		-	7	In		86.1		88	5			6	0											266	*
112		45	14		-	8	In		84.3		86	7			6	2											364	*
111		45	15		-	7	99.7	%	76.7		77	11	1		8	2	0			0			0				580	*
110		45	16		-	6	In		72.3		77	11	0		9	2	0	0									812	*
109		44	16		-	7	99.5		60.9		69	16	0		11	3	0	0	0	0							1,229	*
108		43	16		-	8	99.8		49.6		63	18	2		12	4	1	0	0	0							1,703	*
107		43	17		-	7	99.5		38.1		54	25	3	0	12	4	1	0	0	0							2,436	*
106		42	17		-	8	99.5		26.9		48	25	4		14	5	2	1	0	0	0						3,277	*
105		42	18		-	7	98.9		17.7		39	29	7	0	16	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		0		4,418	*
104		41	18		-	8	98.6		10.1		31	30	9	1	16	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			5,724	*
103		41	19		-	7	97.7		4.5		23	30	12	1	17	8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			7,456	*
102		40	19		-	8	96.8		2.0		16	29	15	2	18	9	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		9,254	*
101		40	20		-	7	95.3		0.6		10	25	18	4	18	11	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		11,722	*
100		39	20		-	8	92.9		0.1		7	21	19	5	17	12	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0		14,182	*
99		39	21		-	7	90.6		0.0		4	17	21	7	16	12	8	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	16,862	*
98		38	21		-	8	87.1		No		2	12	20	9	16	12	9	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	19,720	*
97		38	22		-	7	83.6		No		1	9	18	12	14	12	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	22,452	*
96		37	22		-	8	79.3		No		0	5	15	13	13	13	10	8	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	25,536	*
95		37	23		-	7	74.4		No		0	3	13	14	11	12	11	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	28,486	*
94		36	23		-	8	68.2		No		0	2	10	14	10	11	11	10	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	30,964	*
93		35	23		-	9	62.3		No		0	1	7	15	8	11	10	10	9	8	7	5	4	2	1	0	33,044	*
92		35	24		-	8	56.4		No		0	0	5	14	7	10	10	10	10	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	34,890	*
91		34	24		-	9	49.4		No		0	0	3	13	6	8	10	10	10	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	36,077	*
90		34	25		-	8	42.5		No			0	2	11	5	7	9	10	10	10	10	9	7	6	3	1	36,812	*
89		33	25		-	9	36.5		No			0	1	9	3	6	8	9	10	11	10	10	9	7	5	2	36,685	*
88		33	26		-	8	30.3		No			0	1	7	3	5	7	8	9	10	11	11	10	9	6	3	36,171	*
87		32	26		-	9	25.0		No			0	0	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	8	4	34,904	*
86		32	27		-	8	20.1		No				0	5	2	3	4	6	8	9	11	12	13	12	10	6	33,425	*
85		31	27		-	9	16.2		No			0	0	4	1	2	4	5	7	9	10	12	14	13	12	7	30,974	*
84		31	28		-	8	11.9		No				0	3	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12	14	15	14	10	28,346	*
83		30	28		-	9	9.1		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	11	14	16	16	12	25,693	*
82		30	29		-	8	6.9		No				0	1	0	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	14	16	19	16	23,039	*
81		29	29		-	9	5.0		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	13	17	21	20	20,071	*
80		29	30		-	8	3.3		No				0	1	0	0	1	1	3	4	6	9	13	17	22	24	17,017	*
79		28	30		-	9	2.5		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	12	17	24	28	14,380	*
78		28	31		-	8	1.7		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	10	16	25	34	12,049	*
77		27	31		-	9	0.9		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	9	15	24	40	9,746	*
76		27	32		-	8	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	14	26	44	8,028	*
75		26	32		-	9	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7	12	25	50	6,118	*
74		26	33		-	8	0.4		No					0			0	0	0	1	1	3	5	11	24	56	4,849	*
73		25	33		-	9	0.3		No						0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	24	60	3,775	*
72		25	34		-	8	0.1		No					0		0	0		0	0	1	1	3	7	22	66	2,772	*
71		24	34		-	9	0.1		No					0				0	0	0	1	1	3	6	19	71	1,988	*
70		24	35		-	8	Out		No										0	0	0	0	2	5	17	76	1,483	*
69		23	35		-	9	Out		No										0		0	1	2	3	13	81	1,040	*
68		23	36		-	8	Out		No													0	1	4	12	82	698	*
67		23	37		-	7	Out		No											0			0	2	9	88	499	*
66		22	37		-	8	Out		No													0	1	1	8	91	348	*
65		21	37		-	9	Out		No														0	2	9	88	217	*
64		21	38		-	8	Out		No														1		5	94	144	*
63		21	39		-	7	Out		No															2	3	95	95	*
62		20	39		-	8	Out		No																3	97	60	*
61		20	40		-	7	Out		No																4	96	28	*
60		18	39		-	10	Out		No														4		4	92	26	*
14	-59						Out		No																	100	84	*

Total:							43.2	%	1.0	%	2	4	5	7	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	703,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phoenix vs Vancouver	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

118	-148						100
117		47	11		-	9	98	3
116		48	13		-	6	100
115		47	13		-	7	91	9
114		47	14		-	6	88	13
113		46	14		-	7	86	14	0
112		45	14		-	8	84	14	1
111		45	15		-	7	77	21	2	0
110		45	16		-	6	72	24	3	0
109		44	16		-	7	61	32	7	0	0
108		43	16		-	8	50	38	10	2
107		43	17		-	7	38	41	16	4	0	0
106		42	17		-	8	27	41	23	7	2	0
105		42	18		-	7	18	35	29	14	3	1	0
104		41	18		-	8	10	28	32	19	8	2	0	0
103		41	19		-	7	5	18	30	27	15	5	1	0	0
102		40	19		-	8	2	9	23	29	21	10	4	1	0
101		40	20		-	7	1	4	14	24	27	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
100		39	20		-	8	0	1	6	16	24	25	17	8	3	1	0		0
99		39	21		-	7	0	0	2	7	16	24	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
98		38	21		-	8		0	0	2	8	15	23	22	17	8	3	1	0	0
97		38	22		-	7		0	0	0	2	7	15	22	22	17	9	4	1	0	0
96		37	22		-	8			0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
95		37	23		-	7				0	0	0	1	4	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
94		36	23		-	8						0	0	1	4	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0	0
93		35	23		-	9							0	0	1	2	6	13	19	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
92		35	24		-	8								0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	20	14	7	3	1	0	0
91		34	24		-	9									0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	4	1	0	0	0
90		34	25		-	8										0	0	0	0	2	5	12	19	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
89		33	25		-	9												0	0	0	1	4	10	18	22	21	15	7	2	1	0	0	0
88		33	26		-	8													0	0	0	1	3	8	15	22	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
87		32	26		-	9															0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
86		32	27		-	8															0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
85		31	27		-	9																0	0	0	0	2	5	12	21	25	20	10	4	1	0	0
84		31	28		-	8																	0	0	0	0	2	5	13	22	25	20	10	3	0	0
83		30	28		-	9																			0	0	0	2	6	14	24	26	18	8	2	0
82		30	29		-	8																			0	0	0	0	2	8	17	27	26	15	5	1
81		29	29		-	9																					0	0	1	3	10	21	29	24	10	2
80		29	30		-	8																						0	0	1	5	14	28	31	17	4
79		28	30		-	9																							0	0	2	8	22	34	27	7
78		28	31		-	8																								0	1	4	15	33	34	14
77		27	31		-	9																								0	0	2	9	27	40	21
76		27	32		-	8																									0	1	5	22	43	29
75		26	32		-	9																										0	3	15	42	40
74		26	33		-	8																										0	1	11	39	49
73		25	33		-	9																										0	1	6	35	59
72		25	34		-	8																											0	4	30	66
71		24	34		-	9																											0	3	23	74
70		24	35		-	8																												2	19	80
69		23	35		-	9																												1	14	85
68		23	36		-	8																												1	8	91
67		23	37		-	7																													8	92
66		22	37		-	8																													6	94
65		21	37		-	9																													4	96
64		21	38		-	8																													3	97
63		21	39		-	7																													2	98
62		20	39		-	8																													2	98
14	-61																																			100

Total:							1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	4	4	3