Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 58%

19 points 8 3-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Boston vs Dallas	-0.4-0.2+0.0+0.4+0.0+0.3
Montreal vs St. Louis	-0.4-0.1+0.2+0.3-0.0+0.3
San Jose vs Buffalo	+0.3-0.3+0.2+0.6-0.2-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

124	-155						In		Yes		100																97	*
123		47	11		-	10	In		Yes		97				3												35	*
122		49	14		-	5	In		Yes		100																75	*
121		48	14		-	6	In		Yes		98				2												114	*
120		47	14		-	7	In		99.4	%	95	1			4			1									161	*
119		46	14		-	8	In		98.3		98				2												287	*
118		46	15		-	7	In		98.8		96	0			3	0		0									412	*
117		45	15		-	8	In		97.4		96	1			2	0	0										651	*
116		45	16		-	7	In		96.7		94	2			4	0		0									906	*
115		44	16		-	8	99.9	%	94.2		91	3			5	1	0	0		0							1,324	*
114		44	17		-	7	In		93.1		91	3	0		5	1	0	0									1,918	*
113		43	17		-	8	100.0		89.0		87	5	0		6	1	0	0	0								2,639	*
112		43	18		-	7	99.9		83.3		82	8	0		8	2	0	0	0	0	0						3,500	*
111		42	18		-	8	99.8		78.0		79	9	0		8	2	1	0	0		0	0	0				4,649	*
110		42	19		-	7	99.6		69.7		74	12	0		9	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				5,871	*
109		41	19		-	8	99.5		59.2		66	16	1	0	11	4	1	1	0	0	0	0			0		7,709	*
108		41	20		-	7	99.2		50.2		60	19	2	0	12	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				9,563	*
107		40	20		-	8	98.8		37.7		51	24	3	0	12	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		11,875	*
106		40	21		-	7	98.0		27.3		43	26	4	0	13	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0			14,678	*
105		39	21		-	8	97.1		17.0		35	29	6	0	13	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		0	17,012	*
104		38	21		-	9	95.8		9.6		27	30	9	1	13	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	20,064	*
103		38	22		-	8	94.4		4.7		20	29	12	1	13	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	23,156	*
102		37	22		-	9	92.1		1.8		14	27	15	2	12	10	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	25,709	*
101		37	23		-	8	89.2		0.6		9	23	17	4	12	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	28,507	*
100		36	23		-	9	85.6		0.1		6	19	19	5	11	10	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	31,195	*
99		36	24		-	8	81.4		0.0		3	15	18	7	11	10	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	33,356	*
98		35	24		-	9	77.0		0.0		2	11	18	8	9	10	10	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	34,781	*
97		35	25		-	8	71.6		No		1	7	16	10	8	10	10	9	8	7	5	4	3	2	1	0	35,827	*
96		34	25		-	9	66.0		No		0	5	14	11	7	9	10	9	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	0	36,495	*
95		34	26		-	8	59.3		No		0	3	11	12	6	8	10	10	9	9	7	6	4	3	1	1	36,482	*
94		33	26		-	9	53.0		No		0	2	8	12	5	7	9	10	10	10	9	7	5	4	2	1	35,726	*
93		33	27		-	8	46.3		No		0	1	6	12	4	6	8	10	10	10	9	8	7	5	3	1	34,230	*
92		32	27		-	9	39.9		No		0	0	4	11	3	5	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	4	2	33,041	*
91		32	28		-	8	33.7		No		0	0	2	9	2	4	7	8	10	10	11	11	9	8	5	3	30,485	*
90		31	28		-	9	28.1		No			0	2	8	2	3	6	7	9	10	11	11	11	9	7	3	28,007	*
89		31	29		-	8	22.8		No			0	1	7	1	3	5	6	8	10	11	12	12	11	9	5	25,557	*
88		30	29		-	9	18.5		No				0	6	1	2	4	5	7	9	10	12	13	13	11	6	22,707	*
87		30	30		-	8	14.4		No				0	4	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12	13	14	13	9	19,552	*
86		29	30		-	9	10.9		No				0	4	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	13	15	15	12	16,800	*
85		29	31		-	8	8.3		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	14	16	18	14	14,557	*
84		28	31		-	9	5.9		No				0	2	0	1	1	2	4	5	7	10	13	17	20	18	12,050	*
83		28	32		-	8	4.5		No				0	1	0	0	1	2	3	4	7	9	13	17	21	22	9,806	*
82		27	32		-	9	3.0		No				0	1	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	23	26	7,855	*
81		27	33		-	8	2.0		No					1	0	0	0	1	2	2	4	7	11	16	25	30	6,136	*
80		26	33		-	9	1.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	9	15	25	37	4,712	*
79		26	34		-	8	0.9		No					0		0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	15	24	41	3,523	*
78		25	34		-	9	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	13	25	46	2,697	*
77		25	35		-	8	0.3		No					0	0		0		1	1	1	4	6	11	24	52	2,013	*
76		24	35		-	9	0.3		No					0		0		0	0	1	1	1	5	10	24	58	1,530	*
75		24	36		-	8	0.3		No					0				0	0	0	0	2	4	8	23	63	1,083	*
74		23	36		-	9	0.1		No							0			0	0	1	1	3	8	21	66	725	*
73		23	37		-	8	0.2		No					0								1	4	6	16	74	534	*
72		22	37		-	9	Out		No													0	3	5	13	79	378	*
71		22	38		-	8	Out		No												0	1	1	4	13	80	235	*
70		22	39		-	7	Out		No														1	2	12	85	145	*
69		21	39		-	8	Out		No														1	1	13	86	118	*
68		21	40		-	7	Out		No														2	3	5	90	62	*
67		20	40		-	8	Out		No																9	91	43	*
66		20	41		-	7	Out		No																9	91	34	*
65		19	41		-	8	Out		No																	100	14	*
64		20	43		-	5	Out		No																17	83	6	*
19	-63						Out		No																	100	71	*

Total:							58.0	%	6.1	%	10	9	8	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	703,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	*-0.0

Tuesday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

121	-155						100
120		47	14		-	7	99	1
119		46	14		-	8	98	2
118		46	15		-	7	99	1
117		45	15		-	8	97	3
116		45	16		-	7	97	3
115		44	16		-	8	94	6	0
114		44	17		-	7	93	7	0
113		43	17		-	8	89	11	0	0
112		43	18		-	7	83	16	1	0
111		42	18		-	8	78	20	2	0
110		42	19		-	7	70	27	3	0	0
109		41	19		-	8	59	33	7	1	0
108		41	20		-	7	50	37	11	2	0
107		40	20		-	8	38	40	18	4	1	0
106		40	21		-	7	27	40	24	8	1	0	0
105		39	21		-	8	17	36	30	13	3	1	0	0
104		38	21		-	9	10	28	33	20	8	2	0	0
103		38	22		-	8	5	19	30	27	14	5	1	0	0
102		37	22		-	9	2	10	23	29	22	10	3	1	0	0
101		37	23		-	8	1	5	14	24	26	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
100		36	23		-	9	0	2	7	16	25	24	16	7	3	1	0	0
99		36	24		-	8	0	0	2	8	17	24	23	16	7	2	1	0	0	0
98		35	24		-	9	0	0	0	2	7	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
97		35	25		-	8			0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
96		34	25		-	9				0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	11	4	1	0	0
95		34	26		-	8			0		0	0	1	5	11	19	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
94		33	26		-	9					0	0	0	1	4	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
93		33	27		-	8						0	0	0	1	2	7	14	20	22	18	11	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
92		32	27		-	9								0	0	0	2	4	11	18	22	20	13	7	2	1	0	0
91		32	28		-	8									0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	21	17	9	4	1	0	0	0	0
90		31	28		-	9											0	0	1	2	6	13	20	22	19	11	5	2	0	0	0
89		31	29		-	8												0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
88		30	29		-	9											0		0	0	0	1	3	8	16	21	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
87		30	30		-	8															0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	9	4	1	0	0	0
86		29	30		-	9																0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
85		29	31		-	8																	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	20	10	3	1	0	0
84		28	31		-	9																			0	0	1	5	13	21	25	20	10	3	1	0
83		28	32		-	8																				0	0	2	6	15	24	26	18	8	2	0
82		27	32		-	9																					0	0	2	7	18	26	25	16	5	1
81		27	33		-	8																						0	1	3	9	21	29	25	10	2
80		26	33		-	9																						0	0	1	5	15	26	31	18	4
79		26	34		-	8																							0	0	2	8	22	34	25	9
78		25	34		-	9																								0	1	3	15	31	35	15
77		25	35		-	8																									0	2	8	26	42	22
76		24	35		-	9																									0	0	5	21	41	33
75		24	36		-	8																										0	4	13	41	42
74		23	36		-	9																											1	12	36	51
73		23	37		-	8																											1	5	37	57
72		22	37		-	9																												3	32	65
71		22	38		-	8																												4	22	74
70		22	39		-	7																												1	17	81
69		21	39		-	8																												1	5	94
68		21	40		-	7																													15	85
67		20	40		-	8																													7	93
66		20	41		-	7																													12	88
19	-65																																			100

Total:							6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1