St. Louis Blues Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.02 to 65.8%

18 points 9 3-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	-0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Montreal vs St. Louis	-3.9-0.4-0.8+0.6+0.8+3.9		-2.0-0.4*-0.3+1.3+1.3+1.6		-0.4*-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.4
Florida vs Edmonton	+0.4-0.2+0.3-0.3+0.1-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. Louis finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

124	-158						In		Yes		100																189	*
123		48	13		-	9	In		Yes		99				1												91	*
122		48	14		-	8	In		Yes		99				1												153	*
121		48	15		-	7	In		99.6	%	99				1												244	*
120		48	16		-	6	In		99.2		98	0			2												362	*
119		47	16		-	7	In		98.7		97				2	0											531	*
118		46	16		-	8	In		97.9		96	0			3	0	0										828	*
117		45	16		-	9	In		97.1		96	1			3	0	0										1,158	*
116		45	17		-	8	99.9	%	96.9		95	0			4	0				0							1,601	*
115		44	17		-	9	In		94.7		92	1			6	1	0	0									2,151	*
114		44	18		-	8	99.9		92.0		91	2			6	1	0	0	0	0							3,007	*
113		44	19		-	7	100.0		88.9		90	2			6	1	0	0	0					0			4,070	*
112		43	19		-	8	In		84.1		86	3	0		8	2	1	0									5,115	*
111		43	20		-	7	99.8		77.0		82	5	0		9	2	1	0	0	0	0	0					6,788	*
110		42	20		-	8	99.7		69.5		79	7	0		9	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				8,332	*
109		41	20		-	9	99.6		59.9		73	9	0		11	4	1	1	0	0	0	0					10,392	*
108		41	21		-	8	99.4		49.9		68	12	1	0	11	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				12,735	*
107		40	21		-	9	99.1		38.3		60	16	1	0	13	6	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			14,980	*
106		40	22		-	8	98.3		27.2		54	19	2	0	12	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0				18,056	*
105		39	22		-	9	97.7		17.2		46	21	3	0	14	8	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0			20,848	*
104		39	23		-	8	96.6		9.6		39	23	4	0	13	9	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0			23,408	*
103		38	23		-	9	95.0		4.9		31	25	6	0	14	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0			26,646	*
102		38	24		-	8	93.2		1.9		23	26	8	1	13	10	7	5	3	2	1	0	0	0			29,354	*
101		37	24		-	9	90.7		0.7		17	25	10	1	12	10	8	6	4	3	1	1	0	0			31,431	*
100		37	25		-	8	87.8		0.1		12	23	13	2	12	11	9	7	5	3	2	1	0	0			33,026	*
99		36	25		-	9	84.2		0.0		8	20	14	3	11	11	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	0			34,664	*
98		36	26		-	8	80.0		0.0		5	16	15	4	9	11	11	9	7	5	4	2	1	0			35,790	*
97		35	26		-	9	74.9		0.0		3	13	15	5	9	10	11	10	8	7	5	3	2	0			36,286	*
96		35	27		-	8	69.6		No		2	9	14	7	7	10	11	10	10	8	6	4	2	1			35,959	*
95		34	27		-	9	64.6		No		1	6	13	8	6	9	11	11	10	9	7	5	3	1			34,961	*
94		34	28		-	8	57.7		No		0	4	11	8	5	8	11	11	11	10	9	6	4	2			33,740	*
93		33	28		-	9	51.8		No		0	3	8	9	4	7	10	11	11	11	10	8	5	2			32,199	*
92		33	29		-	8	45.3		No		0	1	7	9	3	6	9	11	12	12	11	10	7	3			29,626	*
91		32	29		-	9	38.8		No		0	1	4	8	3	5	8	10	12	12	13	11	9	5			27,360	*
90		32	30		-	8	33.1		No		0	0	3	8	2	4	7	9	11	13	14	13	10	6			24,708	*
89		31	30		-	9	27.3		No			0	2	7	2	3	6	8	11	13	14	14	13	8			22,026	*
88		31	31		-	8	23.6		No			0	2	6	1	3	5	7	10	12	14	15	14	10			18,687	*
87		30	31		-	9	17.6		No			0	1	4	1	2	4	6	9	12	14	17	17	13			16,430	*
86		30	32		-	8	14.3		No			0	0	4	0	2	3	5	8	11	14	18	19	16			13,811	*
85		29	32		-	9	11.1		No			0	0	3	0	1	2	4	6	10	13	18	21	20			11,449	*
84		29	33		-	8	8.6		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	8	13	18	24	24			9,248	*
83		28	33		-	9	5.4		No				0	1	0	1	1	2	4	7	12	18	25	29			7,477	*
82		28	34		-	8	4.1		No				0	1	0	0	1	2	3	6	11	16	26	34			5,804	*
81		27	34		-	9	3.0		No					1	0	0	1	1	3	5	9	16	26	38			4,676	*
80		27	35		-	8	2.6		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	15	27	42			3,601	*
79		26	35		-	9	1.3		No					0	0	0	0	0	2	4	6	12	26	50			2,701	*
78		26	36		-	8	0.8		No					0			0	0	1	3	6	11	23	55			2,044	*
77		25	36		-	9	0.7		No					0			0	0	1	2	4	7	26	58			1,446	*
76		25	37		-	8	0.1		No									0	1	1	4	8	23	63			1,049	*
75		24	37		-	9	0.1		No					0					0	1	2	7	20	69			727	*
74		24	38		-	8	0.4		No					0			0				1	5	17	76			503	*
73		23	38		-	9	Out		No											0	1	6	14	79			304	*
72		23	39		-	8	Out		No												2	1	18	79			228	*
71		23	40		-	7	Out		No											1	2	2	13	82			165	*
70		22	40		-	8	Out		No												1	1	9	89			79	*
69		21	40		-	9	Out		No													3	7	90			72	*
68		21	41		-	8	Out		No														12	88			41	*
67		21	42		-	7	Out		No											3		3	3	92			38	*
18	-66						Out		No															100			85	*

Total:							65.8	%	8.5	%	16	11	7	4	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	4			703,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Montreal vs St. Louis	+1.0+0.1+0.2-0.8-0.8-0.8
Columbus vs Ottawa	-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1*+0.0
Phoenix vs Vancouver	+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122	-158						100
121		48	15		-	7	100	0
120		48	16		-	6	99	1
119		47	16		-	7	99	1
118		46	16		-	8	98	2
117		45	16		-	9	97	3
116		45	17		-	8	97	3	0
115		44	17		-	9	95	5	0
114		44	18		-	8	92	8	0
113		44	19		-	7	89	11	0
112		43	19		-	8	84	15	1	0
111		43	20		-	7	77	21	2	0	0
110		42	20		-	8	69	26	4	0
109		41	20		-	9	60	33	7	1	0
108		41	21		-	8	50	37	11	2	0	0
107		40	21		-	9	38	40	17	4	0	0
106		40	22		-	8	27	40	24	7	1	0	0
105		39	22		-	9	17	36	29	13	3	1	0
104		39	23		-	8	10	28	32	20	8	2	0	0
103		38	23		-	9	5	19	30	26	14	5	1	0	0
102		38	24		-	8	2	10	23	28	22	10	3	1	0	0
101		37	24		-	9	1	5	14	24	26	18	9	3	1	0	0
100		37	25		-	8	0	1	7	16	24	24	17	8	3	1	0	0
99		36	25		-	9	0	0	2	8	16	24	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
98		36	26		-	8	0	0	1	2	8	16	23	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
97		35	26		-	9	0	0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
96		35	27		-	8		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	20	22	19	11	5	2	0	0	0
95		34	27		-	9					0	0	1	5	11	18	23	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
94		34	28		-	8					0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
93		33	28		-	9						0	0	0	1	2	7	13	20	22	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
92		33	29		-	8							0		0	0	1	5	11	18	22	20	14	7	2	1	0	0
91		32	29		-	9									0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	4	1	0	0	0
90		32	30		-	8									0		0	0	0	2	6	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
89		31	30		-	9										0			0	0	1	4	10	18	21	21	14	7	3	1	0	0
88		31	31		-	8														0	0	1	3	8	15	21	23	16	9	3	1	0	0
87		30	31		-	9															0	0	1	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
86		30	32		-	8																0	0	0	2	6	12	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0
85		29	32		-	9																	0	0	0	2	5	12	20	25	20	11	4	1	0
84		29	33		-	8																		0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	21	9	3	0	0
83		28	33		-	9																				0	0	2	6	15	24	26	19	7	2	0
82		28	34		-	8																						0	2	7	17	26	26	16	5	1
81		27	34		-	9																						0	1	2	9	22	30	23	11	2
80		27	35		-	8																						0	0	1	4	13	27	32	19	4
79		26	35		-	9																								0	2	7	22	32	27	9
78		26	36		-	8																								0	1	4	14	33	35	14
77		25	36		-	9																									0	1	8	27	41	22
76		25	37		-	8																									0	1	5	22	39	32
75		24	37		-	9																										0	3	17	42	37
74		24	38		-	8																											1	11	36	51
73		23	38		-	9																												6	33	62
72		23	39		-	8																											0	4	26	69
71		23	40		-	7																												2	21	76
70		22	40		-	8																													19	81
69		22	41		-	7																													11	89
68		21	41		-	8																													17	83
67		21	42		-	7																												3	11	87
66		20	42		-	8																													10	90
18	-65																																			100

Total:							9	7	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0