Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Winnipeg 4-5, playoff odds down 0.8 to 53.9%

21 points 10 5-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	-4.3		-1.8		-0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
San Jose vs Buffalo	+0.3+0.1+0.1+0.8*-0.2-0.4
Montreal vs St. Louis	-0.5+0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.4
Florida vs Edmonton	-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.0+0.0+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

153		66	0		-	0	In		Yes		100																58
129		52	10		-	4	In		Yes		50				50												2	*
123	-128						In		Yes		100																74	*
122		47	12		-	7	In		Yes		98				2												47	*
121		47	13		-	6	In		Yes		97				3												63	*
120		46	13		-	7	In		99.3	%	96	1			3												143	*
119		46	14		-	6	In		99.5		95	0			4												202	*
118		45	14		-	7	In		99.5		97	0			2												369	*
117		44	14		-	8	In		97.0		94	2			4	0											463	*
116		44	15		-	7	99.9	%	95.3		92	3			5	0	0		0								723	*
115		44	16		-	6	99.9		94.0		92	2			5	1	0				0						1,115	*
114		43	16		-	7	99.9		92.5		88	3	0		8	1	0	0				0					1,559	*
113		42	16		-	8	99.8		87.5		85	6	0		7	2	1	0	0	0		0					2,309	*
112		42	17		-	7	99.8		83.7		81	7	0		8	3	1	0	0	0	0	0					3,138	*
111		41	17		-	8	99.7		76.1		76	9	0		10	3	1	0	0	0	0						4,207	*
110		41	18		-	7	99.5		69.5		71	12	1		11	4	1	1	0	0	0						5,520	*
109		40	18		-	8	99.4		58.4		63	16	1	0	13	4	2	1	0	0	0	0		0			7,135	*
108		40	19		-	7	98.9		48.6		56	19	2	0	13	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			8,958	*
107		39	19		-	8	98.2		37.2		48	22	3	0	14	7	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			11,152	*
106		39	20		-	7	97.4		26.6		41	24	4	0	14	8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			13,579	*
105		38	20		-	8	96.2		16.9		32	27	7	0	14	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		16,320	*
104		38	21		-	7	94.7		9.5		25	27	8	1	15	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19,179	*
103		37	21		-	8	92.5		4.7		18	26	11	1	14	10	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	22,356	*
102		37	22		-	7	90.1		2.0		13	24	13	2	14	11	8	6	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	25,235	*
101		36	22		-	8	86.6		0.6		8	21	15	3	13	11	9	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	28,060	*
100		36	23		-	7	82.8		0.1		5	17	16	5	12	11	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	31,009	*
99		35	23		-	8	78.0		0.0		3	12	16	6	10	11	10	8	7	6	4	2	2	1	0	0	33,203	*
98		35	24		-	7	73.5		0.0		2	9	16	7	9	10	11	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	34,638	*
97		34	24		-	8	66.9		No		1	6	13	9	8	10	10	9	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	36,078	*
96		34	25		-	7	60.8		No		0	4	11	10	6	9	10	10	10	8	7	5	4	3	1	0	37,035	*
95		33	25		-	8	54.9		No		0	2	9	10	6	8	10	10	10	9	8	7	5	3	2	1	36,760	*
94		32	25		-	9	47.7		No		0	1	6	10	4	7	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	5	3	1	36,629	*
93		32	26		-	8	41.2		No		0	1	4	9	3	6	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	4	1	35,400	*
92		32	27		-	7	34.7		No		0	0	3	8	3	5	7	8	9	11	11	11	9	7	5	2	33,790	*
91		31	27		-	8	29.2		No			0	2	8	2	4	6	8	9	10	11	11	10	9	6	3	31,726	*
90		30	27		-	9	23.7		No			0	1	6	2	3	5	7	8	10	11	12	12	10	8	5	28,819	*
89		30	28		-	8	18.7		No			0	1	5	1	3	4	5	7	9	11	12	13	12	10	6	26,173	*
88		30	29		-	7	14.4		No			0	0	4	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12	14	14	12	8	23,279	*
87		29	29		-	8	11.3		No				0	3	0	1	2	4	5	8	10	12	14	15	15	10	20,298	*
86		28	29		-	9	8.4		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	6	9	11	14	17	16	14	17,282	*
85		28	30		-	8	6.2		No				0	2	0	1	1	2	4	6	8	10	14	17	19	16	14,688	*
84		27	30		-	9	4.6		No				0	1	0	0	1	2	3	4	7	10	12	17	21	21	12,061	*
83		27	31		-	8	3.3		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	13	17	23	25	10,043	*
82		26	31		-	9	2.2		No					1	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	11	17	25	29	7,936	*
81		26	32		-	8	1.3		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	10	16	25	35	6,318	*
80		25	32		-	9	0.8		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	3	5	9	15	26	39	4,850	*
79		25	33		-	8	0.5		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	14	26	45	3,852	*
78		24	33		-	9	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	13	25	51	2,693	*
77		24	34		-	8	0.5		No					0	0			0	0	0	1	2	4	10	25	56	2,116	*
76		24	35		-	7	0.3		No					0		0		0	0	0	1	1	4	9	21	63	1,509	*
75		23	35		-	8	0.5		No					0				0	0	0	0	1	3	6	20	68	1,082	*
74		22	35		-	9	Out		No										0		0	1	2	5	20	72	730	*
73		21	35		-	10	Out		No												0	1	3	6	16	74	523	*
72		21	36		-	9	Out		No												1		2	3	14	81	331	*
71		21	37		-	8	Out		No														1	1	14	85	214	*
70		21	38		-	7	Out		No													1	2	1	15	80	136	*
69		20	38		-	8	Out		No														1	3	9	87	101	*
68		19	38		-	9	Out		No															2	11	88	56	*
67		19	39		-	8	Out		No																4	96	46	*
66		20	41		-	5	Out		No															4		96	24	*
65		18	40		-	8	Out		No																9	91	11	*
64		18	41		-	7	Out		No																8	92	12	*
21	-63						Out		No																	100	63	*

Total:							53.9	%	5.5	%	8	8	7	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	703,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 5 Detroit 4	+1.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phoenix vs Vancouver	+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

121	-153						100
120		46	13		-	7	99	1
119		46	14		-	6	100	0
118		45	14		-	7	99	1
117		44	14		-	8	97	3
116		44	15		-	7	95	5	0
115		44	16		-	6	94	6	0
114		43	16		-	7	92	7	0
113		42	16		-	8	87	12	0
112		42	17		-	7	84	15	1	0
111		41	17		-	8	76	22	2	0
110		41	18		-	7	70	26	4	0
109		40	18		-	8	58	34	7	1	0
108		40	19		-	7	49	38	12	2	0
107		39	19		-	8	37	41	17	4	1	0
106		39	20		-	7	27	40	24	8	2	0	0
105		38	20		-	8	17	35	30	13	4	1	0
104		38	21		-	7	9	27	33	21	8	2	0	0
103		37	21		-	8	5	18	30	27	14	5	1	0	0
102		37	22		-	7	2	10	23	28	22	11	4	1	0	0
101		36	22		-	8	1	4	14	24	26	19	9	3	1	0	0
100		36	23		-	7	0	1	6	16	24	24	17	8	3	1	0	0
99		35	23		-	8	0	0	2	7	17	23	23	16	8	2	1	0	0
98		35	24		-	7	0	0	0	2	8	16	23	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
97		34	24		-	8		0	0	0	2	8	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
96		34	25		-	7		0	0	0	1	2	6	13	20	23	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
95		33	25		-	8					0	0	1	5	11	19	22	20	12	6	2	0	0	0		0
94		32	25		-	9					0	0	0	1	4	9	17	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
93		32	26		-	8							0	0	1	2	7	13	20	22	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
92		32	27		-	7							0	0	0	0	1	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
91		31	27		-	8										0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	4	1	0	0	0
90		30	27		-	9										0	0	0	1	2	6	12	19	22	19	11	5	2	0	0	0
89		30	28		-	8												0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
88		30	29		-	7													0	0	0	1	3	8	15	22	22	17	8	3	1	0	0
87		29	29		-	8														0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
86		28	29		-	9																0	0	1	2	6	13	20	24	19	10	4	1	0	0
85		28	30		-	8																	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	19	11	3	1	0	0
84		27	30		-	9																		0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	20	9	3	1	0
83		27	31		-	8																				0	0	2	6	15	23	26	18	8	2	0
82		26	31		-	9																				0	0	0	2	8	18	26	26	15	5	1
81		26	32		-	8																						0	1	3	9	21	30	24	11	1
80		25	32		-	9																							0	1	4	15	27	30	18	4
79		25	33		-	8																							0	0	2	8	21	34	26	8
78		24	33		-	9																								0	1	5	15	32	35	13
77		24	34		-	8																									0	2	9	29	40	20
76		24	35		-	7																										1	5	20	44	31
75		23	35		-	8																										0	3	14	43	40
74		22	35		-	9																											1	10	40	49
73		21	35		-	10																										0	1	5	32	62
72		21	36		-	9																											1	5	29	66
71		21	37		-	8																												2	21	77
70		21	38		-	7																													21	79
69		20	38		-	8																													14	86
68		19	38		-	9																													9	91
67		19	39		-	8																													9	91
66		20	41		-	5																													4	96
65		18	40		-	8																													9	91
64		18	41		-	7																													8	92
21	-63																																			100

Total:							6	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1